According to the organizers of the Union Peace Conference (UPC), it has been agreed that there will be 3 conferences per year, each 4 months apart from the other. However, the UPC#2 is not expected to be held in May as scheduled, due to the fact that the transfer of power to the new government will take place only in April. “It might therefore even be moved to October or November,” a source from the peacemaking circle in Rangoon said recently.

 All the same, it doesn’t mean that the participants of the UPC#1 in January should stay idle. What will mostly likely come after the new government takes over will most certainly be the revision of the current framework for political dialogue (FPD) which may allow, among others, for inclusion of youth and women.

Some of the new government members might also want to make federalism an exclusive subject for the union legislature, according to some sources, instead of being a two pronged (both inside and outside parliament) effort. However, that might call for the amendment of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) that was already ratified by the parliament on 8 December. It is therefore certain to face stiff opposition especially from the EAOs quarter.

Nevertheless, what all parties have agreed, judging by the presentations at UPC#1, is that “the way to peace is through federalism.”

So what kind of federalism are we talking about? To be able to make informed judgment on it, it is necessary to look into the basic principles of at least 2 constitutions and 1 draft constitution:

·         1947 constitution (drafted and approved before Independence)

·         2008 constitution (drafted by the military leaders and approved in a controversial referendum after 14 years)

·         2008 draft constitution by the Federal Constitution Drafting and Coordinating Committee (FCDCC) and endorsed by 90 organizations

The readers, I’m sure, may like to decide for themselves: In what principles the three are similar, in what they are different, and what they may want to suggest to resolve the differences:

Here the “Panglong Agreement” and the “Panglong promises” through which the present union came into being should also be taken into account:

Panglong Agreement

The gist of the agreement:

Point 1-4.         Shan, Chin and Kachin representatives will be appointed as minister and deputy ministers respectively responsible for matters relating to Frontier Areas affairs (now  known as Border Affairs)

Point 5.                 Full autonomy in internal affairs

Point 6.                 A status of state for the Kachins in the future independent Union. (The Chins then did not request the same status)

Point 7.                 Rights and privileges fundamental in democratic countries (which is interpreted by the author as Human Rights and Democracy)

Point 8-9.             Financial autonomy as in the Federated Shan States for Chin and Kachin

It is quite significant that the UPWC had refused to adopt the term.

Panglong Promises

During the 4-day negotiations in Panglong, 8-11 February 1947, the following demands were made by the Joint Chin-Kachin-Shan Committee, officially dubbed Supreme Council of the United Hill Peoples (SCOUHP), which was formed on 7 February:

·         Equal status

·         Joint responsibility for common subjects such as foreign affairs, defense and coinage and currency

·         The right to secede if and when we choose

Gen Aung San reportedly had accepted all in principle but requested that they be included in the Union constitution to be a drafted by the upcoming Constituent Assembly instead. His solemn word of honor thus became known as the promises of Panglong.

It is significant that the UPWC has also refused to employ this term.

One thing seems to be clear: Without common basic principles (or Vision if we may use it), the upcoming UPCs will merely be a waste of time and resources. Worse, the return of war is inevitable.

The author is President and Co-founder of the Shan Herald Agency for News (SHAN). He is also serving as Managing Director for the Pyidaungsu Institute (PI) for Peace and Dialogue, which has offices both in Chiangmai and Yangon/Rangoon.