Prospect of the Karenni and Mon in the wake of uncertain UNFC's subsistence
After the Kachin Independence Organization
(KIO) resignation, followed by the Wa National Organization (WNO), the hitherto
United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) members of seven has been left with
just five members. And of the remaining five, one of them – the Shan State
Progress Party (SSPP) - has also joined the Pangkham alliance, also known as
Federal Political Negotiation Consultative Committee (FPNCC), together with the
KIO and thus the UNFC couldn't be sure, if the remaining members count would be
four or five. But at least for now, it could be counted as five, because the
SSPP has not resigned from the UNFC, although at the same time, it is also the
Pangkham alliance member.
UNFC members are KIO; SSPP; New Mon State
Party (NMSP); the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP); the WNO; the Lahu
Democratic Union (LDU); and the Arakan National Council (ANC)
If one now leaves aside the Arakan National
Council (ANC) and Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), the two organizations within the
UNFC, as both hardly have any fighting force, only the KNPP and the NMSP would be left as important and countable
forces that have round about between 600 to 1000 troopers each.
While the said two Ethnic Armed Organizations
(EAOs) have fighting forces not comparable to some of the big EAOs, with some
ranging from 8000 to 30,000, their political correctness and prowess are rare,
seen from the steadfast struggle for ethnic rights of self-determination point
of view.
For example, when the two biggest EAOs, the
KIO and SSPP joined the FPNCC, rumors were making the rounds that the left over
UNFC members would sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), as they were
thought to be in panic and not wanting to be left hanging in the limbo, on
which even the State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi made a premature, unverified
statement, thanking them on how their decision to sign would help strengthen
the peace process, that actually failed to materialize.
In the end, seeing that the remaining four
UNFC members, especially the KNPP and NMSP, insisted that its nine-point
proposal to amend the NCA had to be first settled before they could sign it,
the government's Peace Commission (PC) came up with a Deeds of Commitment (DoC)
proposal that they inked this as a stopgap agreement first and later sign the
actual NCA. And in return, the government would let them participate in the
Union Peace Conference - 21st Century Panglong (UPC-21CP), with
rights to discuss and table position papers, but could not only make decision.
According to the NCA rule, only fully fledged
members that signed the NCA could vote within the Union Peace Dialogue Joint
Committee (UPDJC), the main setup responsible for holding the UPC-21CP.
The remaining four UNFC members rejected the
PC's proposal and were invited as “special guests”, which they also turned it
down.
Now with the said new EAOs' configuration, the
question arises how the future of the NMSP and the KNPP would look like.
Militarily, if the KNPP and NMSP would stay
out of the NCA signing, it is possible that the Tatmadaw or the Military might
likely put the pressure on them.
While militarily the NMSP could be hard
pressed, given that it is surrounded by the NCA signatory Karen National Union
(KNU) and government's Border Guard Forces (BGF), with not much space to
maneuver, the KNPP would be able to survive even if militarily pressured, as it
has always done in the past.
Politically, General N'Ban La met Suu Kyi when
he was in Nay Pyi Taw last month together with the Pangkham alliance, made
necessary by Chinese intervention on Burma's government and Tatmadaw.
According to an insider source closed to a
signatory EAO, during the invited lunch of General N'Ban La and his wife
separately, Suu Kyi was said to have asked, whether he would like to stay with
the UNFC or Pangkham alliance, to which he answered that he wanted to be with
the UNFC, if its nine-point proposal could be agreed upon.
The rumor had it that Suu Kyi was said to have
answered that of the nine-point proposal only the two parts that mentioned the
involvement of international players in Ceasefire Joint Monitoring Committee
(JMC) and neutral NCA enforcement, mediation team – should there be dispute
among stakeholders - were exception, which could not be agreed upon.
UNFC's nine-point proposal includes:
nationwide ceasefire declaration within 24 hours, followed by the UNFC troops
doing likewise within 48 hours; formation of an equal, genuine federal union
based on Panglong spirit; tripartite dialogue composition – government,
Military, parliament; EAOs; and political parties – in all levels of the peace
process; drawing up a constitution according to the outcome of 21st Century Panglong Conference; allowing
international parties’ participation to be able to jointly monitor and enforce
ceasefire agreement; and concerning big scale development plans to adhere to
the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), in cooperation with
the concerned public and the EAOs.
If this would become a reality, provided the
compromise could be found with the blessing of the Tatmadaw, the political
fortune of the KNPP and NMSP could changed, as the KIO and SSPP would also sign
the NCA under the banner of UNFC. Otherwise, their immediate future would
likely be the same as it is now, with the pending of NCA signing and continuous
on and off negotiation mode with the PC on its nine-point proposal.
The longer perspective would be to either make
a compromise with the PC on its demand, provided there would be a real
give-and-take atmosphere, or if the PC side doesn't give in to any demand and
just want them to sign the NCA without alteration, the likely outcome would be
the total rejection of the KNPP and NMSP to sign it and risk possible military pressure
from the Tatmadaw.
But for now and by the look of it, the
Military is unlikely to militarily pressure the two EAOs, as it is preoccupied
with the ongoing wars in Kachin and Shan States and this would only work to the
advantage and credit of Suu Kyi's regime, which it is not so keen to see it
happen. Besides, the Tatmadaw is said to have enough headache with the
non-secession clause that the ethnic protested vigorously during the UPC-21CP
and like to keep the EAOs' participation count limited as it is now.
In sum, the immediate future of the KNPP and
NMSP would not change much and would likely continue in the same status quo
mode for the time being.
Tags: Opinion
