COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF'S CHINA VISIT: National interest, brewing proxy war and deterrence
Commander-in-Chief
Min Aung Hlaing's recent China visit, United Wa State Army (UWSA) - National
Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) military friction or debacle and Burma Army's
withdrawal ultimatum of the UWSA troops from its occupied positions in NDAA
territory have been important developments during the past few weeks, which
have raised concerns and worries among the stakeholders of the country that are
trying to iron out a nationwide peace deal.
From the
outset, the UWSA has been quite skeptic to participate in the Union Peace
Conference (UPC), also dubbed 21st Century Panglong (21CPC), held
from 31 August to 3 September, even though it had sent in a low-level
functionaries because of China's urging, while the NDAA was quite enthusiastic
and participated in the gathering headed by its leader Sai Luen, also known as
Lin Mingxian, until the end of the conference.
The UWSA,
however, opted out of the conference after just a day of attending, stating
unfair treatment and discrimination over status of participation. Reportedly,
the Wa delegation was given observer status, instead of the full-fledged
participant cards. Apologies from the conference conveners blaming technical
error came to no avail, as the delegation left the conference the following
day.
UWSA-NDAA
soured relationship
The NDAA,
based in eastern Shan State’s Mongla Township (officially known as Shan State
Special Region 4), has traditionally maintained close relations with the Wa
army, which is considered the largest ethnic militia force in Burma with a
troop strength estimated at 20,000. Commonly referred to as the Mongla Group,
the NDAA has around 3,000 soldiers, according to data from the Myanmar Peace
Monitor.
On September
28, the UWSA sent in its Battalion 468 – some 600 troops pulled into NDAA
territory in about 60 trucks. The Wa forces seized three NDAA bases: two
mountain bases, Loi Kiusai and Loi Hsarm Hsoom, and a checkpoint at Parng Mark
Fai. More than 150 NDAA guards were captured in the raids.
The NDAA
troops were released later, but the occupation of the military bases continue
with more reinforcement, even after the negotiation conducted between the UWSA
and the NDAA, reportedly with the Chinese mediator on the Chinese side, a few
weeks ago.
The NDAA's
drift towards the military's and government's orbit worried the UWSA
tremendously, which resulted in the occupation of the military outposts in
Mongla considered to be militarily, logistically and economically strategic for
the UWSA.
The NDAA has
been demanding a self-administered zone for the Akha ethnic minority, which it
has made known that if accepted would lead to its signing of the Nationwide
Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).
This is relatively
easy to achieve as according to U Ye Htun, a prominent former Shan MP
during the previous regime, in his
article in Democratic Voice of Burma on 8 November, the constitution's
paragraph number 54 could make it necessary. He said, the concerned Chief Minister
of State only needs to endorse the proposal and forward it to the President,
where he could decide as he sees fit, without going through the parliament.
Besides the
area being strategically important, it is also the territory that the UWSA
wanted to incorporate into its Wa State aspirations, according to its
historical claim's document that was made known, during the 21st
Century Panglong Conference.
Burma Army's
ultimatum
The Burmese
armed forces have ordered the United Wa State Army (UWSA) to withdraw all its
troops from territory under the control of the National Democratic Alliance
Army (NDAA), by 24 October deadline, in and around the town of Mongla in
eastern Shan State, according to Luo Zai Nub, an official from the UWSA,
reported SHAN.
“We and the
Mongla are brothers,” he said. “We are here to support each other. We have been
here since 2009. We cannot move out if we do not get orders from our
headquarters.”
Luo Zai Nub
said that on 22 October the day the
official request of withdrawal was made, two Burmese government military jets
flew overhead. The following day, Sunday, another four planes conducted
reconnaissance missions over Mongla, which borders China.
The UWSA
refused to obey the Burma Army's withdrawal deadline, but instead just sent a
reply to the government's query on the situation, saying that it would resolve
the conflict peacefully with the NDAA to the government's vice chairperson of
Peace Commission (PC) Dr Tin Myo Win and Aung San Suu Kyi's top peace
negotiator.
Following the
UWSA refusal to withdraw, the beefing up and reinforcement of the Burma Army
was carried out. According to Jane's Defence Weekly of 31 October, the Tatmadaw
mobilized assets under the Kengtung-based Triangle Region Command, including
infantry battalions, tribal militia units and Chinese-built PTL-02 armored
fighting vehicles.
Consequently,
according to Myanmar Times of 27 October, around a thousand troops of the UWSA
were manning the occupied outposts.
Chinese
mediation
According to U
Ye Htun, the Shan politician and observer of Burma's politics, the UWSA seems
to be keen on resolving its conflict with the Burma Army peacefully, although
it wouldn't withdraw its troops from the occupation of three military outpost
in Mongla.
He reasoned
that the UWSA might have asked China to intervene, as Chief of the Joint Staff of the People's Liberation Army, General Fang
Feng-hui invited Min Aung Hlaing and later also met Major General Yu
Kun, political commissar of Yunnan military region.
According to Myawady News of 4 November, Min Aung Hlaing said the over
2,000-kilometer long border mostly shares with Yunnan Province. Most of the
national races of both countries living on the border came from the same tribe
so they can be called brethren. Now, we are continuing to further cement the
amicability built by the former leaders of the two militaries (China and
Burma). Efforts will also be made for continued exchange of goodwill visits,
meetings for border affairs, promotion of military industry sector and military
training and border security and development together with the Southern Theater
Command.
On 28 October, BBC reported that NDAA and UWSA also met in China, which
was said to be productive and smooth but reportedly the occupied outposts by
the UWSA wouldn't be withdrawn.
Perspective
The unfolding political situation could be assessed in the light of
national interest, ethnic groups' aspirations, proxy war and deterrence.
First of all, China's first priority is to interact with Burma as a
whole unit that caters to its national interest. This includes satisfying or
fulfilling its energy hunger; global, regional economic schemes; and backing
for its claim on what is being accepted international sea lane, including the
sea territorial disputes with various Southeast Asian countries and so on. In
other words, realization of the Irrawaddy Myitsone Dam, Salween Dam and the
likes that have been stalling, Kyaukpyu-Kunming railway project and seeking
endorsement of its one China policy and its claim of legitimacy rule over Xinjiang,
coupled with the backing for its South China sea claims, among others.
As such, China is interested to deal Burma only as a whole unit so that
its national interest could be realized accordingly, not selectively with
ethnic groups along the border economically. This clearly rejects the Burmese
military's often stated rhetoric dismemberment notion of the country and
statements such as losing an inch of the country's territory won't be tolerated
and dealt with decisively. China is not at all interested in the breaking up of
Burma, in any way.
That is why China is for a peaceful Burma for its own reason and is
ready to use its weight where necessary to achieve it.
China's urging to its proxies like UWSA and NDAA to participate in the
last 21CPC after the Aung San Suu Kyi China visit is the case in point. But
this doesn't mean China would join hands in using military pressure to disarm
or block the border, to help Burma defeat the ethnic armies.
This is evident when one looks at the military hardware sales to both
the Burma Army and also to the UWSA.
Khernsai Jaiyane, Director of the Pyidaungsu Institute when interviewed
by SHAN on 4 November, regarding Min Aung Hlaing's China visit, whether it
could de-escalate the military confrontation between the Burma Army and the
UWSA, replied: “There are four or five possibilities. Number one is China
supplies both Burma Army and also the UWSA. For example, China gives airplanes
to the Burma Army and the anti-aircraft weapons to the Wa. What the Chinese
want to say is that by going with this pattern, it doesn't want them to fight.
For if there is war both sides would die and suffer. Civilian will lose the
most.”
Perhaps, like Khernsai said, the Chinese government looks at it
involvement as a kind of deterrence to help avoid the war between Burma Army
and the UWSA.
He added that the UWSA allies like Kachin Independence Army (KIA),
Arakan Army (AA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National
Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Shan State Army -North (SSA-N) are
fighting the Burma Army. And if the UWSA will join the fray, the war will
spread to northern, central and eastern parts of Shan State.
Particularly, he was quite concerned of a brewing proxy war, with Burma
Army backed by one powerful nation and the Wa, by another. He said nobody could
say for sure that the recurrence of China backing the Communist Party of Burma
(CPB) during the Cold War scenario would not happen again, in the setup of China backing the UWSA.
As for the Min Aung Hliang's China visit, for now it seems the Chinese
has been able to persuade the Burma Army not to opt for an open warfare against
the UWSA. But also highly unlikely that Min Aung Hlaing was able to woo the
Chinese to subdue the UWSA.
And where NDAA is concerned, it has to swallow the hard reality of
having to agree to the UWSA troops stationing on its territory reluctantly, due
to the security and strategic concern of the latter, for the time being.
All in all, it looks like that the UWSA has benefited in two ways by
using the Chinese card. One is that it was able to stop the Burma Army military
advance and likely offensive with the help of China and the other, it could
pull the NDAA back from getting too close to the government, through the use of
force and with argument that sacrificing the strategically important
chunk of territory would be unwise, which is vital for the survival of both
organizations.
For the time being, Chinese deterrence strategy and persuasion are able
to defuse an all out war between the UWSA and the Burma Army. Only it is not
clear, whether this would be the case the next time such confrontation occurs,
without a comprehensive peace treaty and holistic political settlement still in
sight.
Tags: Opinion
