“8 of the 10 Burma Army’s light infantry divisions are in Kokang (the UWSA’s northern neighbor),” he explained. “Naypyitaw doesn’t need such a big force to subdue Peng Jiasheng (Kokang leader of the Myanmar National Democratic Army).”
The MNDAA, the Wa’s ally, is estimated to be 2,000 strong compared to the estimated 30,000 strong UWSA, reported to be equipped with anti-aircraft guns and missiles.
“One weakness of the UWSA is that the Burma Army can use anti-narcotics campaign as a pretext to fight it,” he added. “So without having allies that enjoy solid reputation as politically-motivated EAOs, it may have to fight a lone war against the Burma Army.”
But the Wa, by all accounts, also appear to be brazenly asking for the leading role in the joint struggle. Why?
“They may have ample reasons to be self-confident, “he replied. He refused to elaborate.
Meanwhile, one of the officers from the Shan State Army (SSA) “North” told SHAN, “The conflict in the north, I believe, is developing into another proxy war between China and the US.”
But another SSA officer rejected, saying, “I think this is going too far. We need more facts and data before arriving at such conclusions. But if it is true, the fragile unity of the EAOs may be further fragmented.”
The EAOs are due to meet at Law Khee Lar, the Karen National Union (KNU) stronghold on the Thai-Burmese border, 2-6 June, to consider whether or not to approve the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) draft finalized between their representatives and the government on 31 March.
