Recently, two pieces of news that are quite crucial to better understand the nature of ethnic conflict were published, which need emphasizing.

One is the interview of Khun Okker, Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) member, with DVB on 21 May, and the other Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hliang’s request to Deputy Foreign Affairs of CCP, Central Committee, on 19 May, reported by Mizzima.

Khun Okker said that NCCT preparation of Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) leaders’ summit meeting will be held in Chiangmai, Thailand from 25 to 27; and the ensuing summit meeting will take place at Lawkhila, Karen National Union (KNU) controlled area, from 2 to 6 June.

When asked why Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) and Union Peace-making Work Committee (UPWC) have to be present at the forthcoming Lawkhila meeting, Khun Okker said that they probably taking advantage of all ethnic leaders’ gathering to adjust glitches and discuss with the EAOs’ leaders that they usually do and not to attend the meeting.

No doubt, many might see it in another aspect, given that the KNU is close to the government and also lately held a meeting in Inya Lake hotel, Rangoon, with Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), also a group keen to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) as soon as possible, plus various registered political parties, on 9 May.

Various other questions Khun Okker answered are as follows:

• No altering of NCA, due to the awaited, lengthy procedure of even changing a word of preposition, for it will have to go from MPC to UPWC, then to the military for approval and they cannot decide on their own. Given such circumstance, he doesn’t think they will touch or alter the already accepted 5th NCA draft of 31 March. Otherwise, the process could be very long.
• United Wa State Army (UWSA) is not against NCA, but agrees that it should proceed with those that are already involved and those not in it should go with their own process and formula.
• Regarding Kokang conflict, it is the key issue that will determine if NCA could be signed. The regime would need to stop the military offensives or tone down the attacks on Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), if favorable condition to sign NCA is to be achieved. For without it, it will be impossible for the EAOs to go ahead with ratification. It depends on how much give-and-take could be handled between the two parties.
• On 16 EAOs count of UPWC and NCCT differ. While government count might include UWSA, National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), also known as Mongla, RCSS and groups that have signed ceasefire, either state-level or union-level, NCCT is for all-inclusiveness, which means all those within the NCCT and non-NCCT, EAOs should be involved in the signing of NCA. Besides, he pointed out the fact that Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) haven’t sign ceasefire agreement, but are accepted by the government as negotiation partners.
• Although all-inclusiveness doesn’t mean that all EAOs have to sign the NCA together at the same time, the remaining, excluding or left out groups must be taken in at a later date into the peace process; that is the signing of NCA. Furthermore, excluding groups must not mean permanent left out or subject to military offensives of the military; for this won’t be accepted by the EAOs. The excluding groups would need to have political guarantee to participate in the future.
• If one of the EAOs is attacked in one corner of the country and still NCA is signed, all will become a laughing stock.

Commander-in Chief request to China
On 19 May, the Vice Minister, of the International Department of the Communist Party of China, H.E. Mr. Chen Fengxiang and Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hliang met, where the latter stressed that along the 2000 kilometers border between China and Burma, problems of ethnic armed conflicts couldn’t be resolved until now, and that since it is the violation of Burma’s sovereignty employing armed insurrection, it could not be accepted. Furthermore, as strategic partners, in view of keeping good bilateral relationship, China is requested to help solicit the ethnic armed organizations to give up arms, according to Mizzima report of 20 May.

However, it is not reported on how Mr.Chen has responded to the request.

The Commander-in-Chief’s request was interpreted by some MPs and political parties’ leaders as below.

• U Khin Maung Swe, Chairman of National democratic Front (NDF) said political settlement is essential before asking the EAOs to give up arms and government must show sincerity and give political security first.

• U Hla Swe, the MP from Magwe, said that Min Aung Hliang seems to be telling that China should not help MNDAA militarily, while Daw Dwe Bu, an MP from Kachin State, stressed that speedily implementing federalism will do the job, without having to solicit help from outsiders.

• Sai Nyunt Lwin a top leader of Shan Nationalities league for Democracy (SNLD) is of the opinion that Burma Army wants China’s help to win the war and it is likely asking China not to help MNDAA militarily. He said political solution is the best.

According to DVB report of 22 May, responding to Burmese military chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing’s call for ethnic groups to abandon armed struggle, the general secretary of NCCT, Saw Kwe Htoo Win, has said that disarmament was never an issue on the table at ceasefire talks between the ethnic bloc and the government. Besides, surrendering arms was never an option nor was the matter included in the 5th NCA draft, signed on 31 March.

“During the era of the military junta, they used such terminologies as ‘abandoning the armed movement’ and ‘entering the legal fold’, but those issues or phrases were not used during the ceasefire talks,” he said.

Points to ponder
Given the prevailing situation, there are quite a few points to speculate or ponder. They are on how China would respond to Min Aung Hliang’s request, particularly the disarming of EAOs along the Burma-China border; both countries taking responsibility of the border areas; and the blaming of MNDAA for the latest bombardment that landed on Chinese soil, on 14-15 May.

With the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei stressing in a daily news briefing that China required the Burma to make a “serious, overall and responsible” investigation into the incident and give a responsible explanation to China, on 20 May, it was made clear on what the Chinese thought of Min Aung Hliang’s accusation that the 14-15 May bombing was the handiwork of the MNDAA. Otherwise, it would have come down hard on MNDAA.

According to 20 May Xinhua news, Hong said China also asked the Myanmar side to take effective measures to prevent similar incidents.

“We urge the relevant parties to cool down the situation and restore peace and stability to the China-Myanmar border area at an early date,” Hong said.

Again, taking responsibility of the border areas interpretation could also be different. While Min Aung Hliang point of view is to disarm and conducting joint-military operation to weed out the elements like MNDAA, UWSA, NDAA and the likes, which are more or less dependent on China and some even outrightly see them as China’s proxies, China’s position is to promote negotiations and resolve the armed conflict peacefully. Besides, it has always made known that it could be involved in a peace-keeping force headed by the United Nations to help return the border areas to normalcy.

Before summing up two paragraphs from The Diplomat issue of 20 May, written by Dr. Xue Li, Director of the Department of International Strategy at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, might be just what China is having in mind, regarding the ongoing problems along Burma-China border.

“Finally, China should use the advantages of the Kokang area, and make it a model for implementation of the Silk Road and the Maritime Silk Road Strategy. A prosperous Kokang can benefit both China and Myanmar. Establishing a Kokang Special Administrative Area (a step forward from the current autonomous area), where the Myanmar government is only responsible for defense and diplomacy, might be a viable solution. This will need Myanmar’s government to genuinely implement the Panglong Agreement, and to go beyond the 2008 constitution, which is not recognized by local ethnic minorities”.

“An autonomous Kokang can provide economic benefits. It can also set an example for Wa and Kachin States. For the Chinese government, a stable Kokang is beneficial to the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic corridor, oil and gas pipelines, and other transportation infrastructure, and allows for the protection of ethnic Chinese in the area”.


The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor