Coming back from London where I had stayed for a week amid the general flurry around today’s upcoming referendum in Scotland, my feeling is that the United Kingdom will remain united, despite the fact that opinion polls in the last few days indicate the number of those for Yes Scotland appear to be closing in and at least 5% of the respondents are undecided.

Coming from a Shan who had fought for so long the independence of Shan State (1969-1996) my assertion could be interpreted as a let-down, indeed a sign of betrayal, by many of my friends. But they should know I’m not speaking through my hat, at least I don’t think so.

§  It wasn’t conquered like Wales and Ireland by England, for one thing. The union between the two 307 years ago was a voluntary one

§  Following the unification during the reign of Queen Elizabeth I, James VI of Scotland (and his successors) became King of Great Britain (“Great” was said to have been added by him and “Britain,” unlike “Myanmar”, is not an alias of “Burma”)

§  There have also been more than 10 Scots elected as prime ministers of the country since

§  Scotland has been gaining increasing powers of autonomy since 1999 when the Scottish parliament was  established (“The Burmese military may have second thoughts about federalism, if the Yes Scotland camp wins,” one of my friends warned)

§  Moreover, the people of Scotland have not been subject to continuous violation of human rights, confiscation of land, and extrajudicial killing and sexual violence by the English like the Shans and other non-Burmans are here (“If they were mistreated like the Shans are, I have nothing but full support for their attempt to secede,” one English friend told me)

§  There is also the usual terrible dilemma between choosing the devil you know and the deep sea you don’t

So I’m betting that the Better Together will win though it might well be a close shave.

It will show our Burmese brethren that their fear of secession is groundless, as long as their behavior towards us is proper and honorable. 

My only wish is that a similar referendum for the Shan State doesn’t come so soon, because nobody, is ready for that yet.