Debacle of selecting house speakers leads to doubtful NLD's ethnic reconciliation policy
National League for Democracy (NLD) issued a directive on 22 January that Aung San Suu Kyi would be the only one who is allowed to answer and talk about its policy during the period of transition from quasi-civilian Thein Sein regime to NLD-led incoming government.
The drastic action came about as spokesman U Nyan Win talked to Agence
France-Presse (AFP) on the choice of two house speakers - Upper and Lower House
of the parliament – prematurely that visibly made Aung San Suu Kyi upset, who
thought it should be kept secret until officially announced.
On 20 January, U Nyan Win told AFP that senior party member Win Myint
would be tapped to serve as speaker of the Union Parliament’s Lower House,
while the ethnic Karen MP-elect Mahn Win Khaing Than, also from the NLD, would
get the party’s backing for the Upper House.
The NLD later refused the selection have been made but neither confirmed
nor denied the line up made known by U Nyan Win and said that official
announcement would be made soon.
Against this backdrop and in relation to what U Nyan Win has made known,
Sai Nyunt Lwin secretary general of Shan Nationalities League for Democracy
(SNLD) told Mizzima on 21 January, that a token placing of ethnic MPs in some
key parliamentary spots either by Aung San Suu Kyi or according to the demand
of some ethnic politicians, won't be enough for reconciliation with the ethnic
nationalities. But discussion between ethnic political parties and NLD to map
out policy matters such as constitutional amendment and formation of a federal
union together is more important than just installation of some ethnic MPs to
key governmental positions.
Hkun Htun Oo, Chairman of the SNLD regarding the rumour that there won't
be a Vice-President post available for the ethnic nationalities recently said:
“(I) want the NLD to be an all-inclusive government. They are shouting
(voicing) national reconciliation government. The ethnic nationalities have to
be included.”
He stressed that since his party won some 40 seats, they would be ready
for the post of Shan State Chief Minister if selected, but the problem was that
the NLD hasn't initiated the meeting with the SNLD and other ethnic parties until
now, according to the media reports.
Regarding the problematic nature following the NLD issued directive,
Hkun Htun Oo told BBC on 23 January that Aung San Suu Kyi should regularly meet
the press and make clarification as needed.
Meanwhile the Arakan National Party (ANP) concerning the Arakan State
government formation said if its party is not given the opportunity to lead and
given State Chief Minister post, it will go into opposition and also would not
participate in any government organization.
Of the 48 seats in Rakhine’s regional parliament, the ANP won 23 seats
and the NLD 13, while the military occupies 12 seats – or 25 percent – under
the country’s constitution. The ANP still needs another 2 more seats to have
absolute majority.
“We are engaged in politics for the development of our nation and the
state. If the NLD does not want to work with us and refuses to speak to us –
then we frankly want to say we are going to stand in opposition to an NLD-led
government,” the ANP statement read.
The frustration of the ANP could be detected as chief U Hla Saw told
Anadolu Agency on 21 January that they had been waiting to negotiate with the
NLD, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, since the official results of the November
election were announced. “But no word from NLD yet,” he said by phone.
To top off his disappointment he said: “We hoped that the political
dialogue that is being widely discussed would take place between the ANP and
the NLD. However we are not seeing the same attitude from the NLD. Instead,
they have publicly spoken about their intention to form the regional government
in Arakan State despite the fact that they only won nine seats in this region
and refused to have a political dialogue with our party, which won 23 seats.”
Rumours abound
As unclear NLD policy on how it will interact with the ethnic political
parties remains a misery, the disappointment and frustration on the part of the
non-Bamar ethnic nationalities snowballed into distrust that could make
reconciliation a more formidable task.
Against this backdrop, the rumours making the rounds make the political
guessing game more exciting for stakeholders, news media and as well Burma
watchers, if not exactly beneficial to the prevailing cacophony sounding
atmosphere.
For example presidential position is rumoured to be occupied either by
NLD patron Thura U Tin Oo, Dr. Tin Myo Win or Sayar Min Thu Wun's son U Htin
Kyaw, according to NLD sources.
As for Union Election Commission, Thura U Shwe Mann who is closed to
Aung San Suu Kyi is said to be slated to take over.
Regarding States and Regions Chief Ministers, Dr Zaw Myint Maung for
Mandalay Region, Dr Myint Naing for Sakaing Region, Nang Khin Htwe Myint for
Karen State, U Nyi Pu for Arakan State and the rest of the States and Regions
would be selected from central committee members of the NLD.
Even 3 to 4 from the Union Peace and Development Party (USDP) would be
allotted positions in the government and Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing had
said to have asked Aung San Suu Kyi to reinstate U Aung Min, the top peace
negotiater of President Thein Sein, according to a source near to the NLD.
Of course, such rumours are hard to verify and one only have to wait
until official announcements are made.
Where to Aung San Suu Kyi and NLD?
The solo taking over of the spokesperson role by Aung San Suu Kyi could
be a sign of insecurity on how to handle the multi-tasks undertaking involving
the choosing of candidates for key political positions in the parliament and as
well the government ministers, not to mention the presidential candidates, who
she would install as a figurehead. Suu Kyi, according to the constitution 59(f)
Section could not become President and thus have made known that she would rule
by proxy.
Apart from that she still also couldn't find time or has no program to
meet the ethnic political parties to determine on how the constitutional
amendment and federal form of government would look like, to the disappointment
of ethnic nationalities. For they might take it as that given her landslide win
in most ethnic states, except for the Shan and Arakan, she doesn't have to
compromise, negotiate and consult the ethnic political parties any more.
If this is the case, she is going to be on the wrong track, for no
amount of vote gained in ethnic states would grant her a blank check to do
whatever she likes and that ethnic rights to exist and ethnic
self-determination cannot be nullified or taken away by anybody. Also she
should not forget that the votes she had collected from the ethnic states are
in large part tactical votes and of course, also due to her popular world
stateswoman stature than the NLD policy declaration.
In the long run, if she is true to her ideas of genuine federalism, she
should refrain from competing in ethnic states in the next elections, but
instead should form coalition with like-minded ethnic political parties and
endorse them so as to empower and let them grow, to adequately and
conscientiously work for their individual state on their own.
While it is arguable that in an election any party, especially which
considers itself as a nationwide party, cross-cutting ethnic lines, could
compete any where like in the case of NLD. But there is a moral ethnic aspect
that should be observed, not to intrude into ethnic states where the heavy
weight Bamar political party could bully the politically handicapped home-grown
ethnic political parties, which are materially and capacity wise no match to
such nationwide competing party. No federalism minded dominant ethnic group
should entertain such idea, particularly when national state-based federal
union is to be the norm and system of governance.
For example in Federal Republic of Germany the ruling Christian
Democratic Union party never venture into Bavarian State where it's coalition party
Christian Social Union is strong. In contrast, the NLD's deeds could not be
taken as such when compared to its relationship with the ANP and SNLD, in
Arakan and Shan states respectively. And if one is not forgetful, the NLD had
worked closely with the ethnic parties under the banner of the Committee Representing the People's
Parliament (CRPP), during the two decades repressive years of military rule.
But it could well be that the priority setting of NLD Chairwoman has
changed, after the landslide election victory, which is to woo the military
more at the expense of the ethnic nationalities, according to Sai Leik, the
SNLD's spokesman.
In sum, Aung San Suu Kyi has to walk an extra mile to fulfill her pledge
of reconciliation with the ethnic nationalities, after she has done her part
quite well with the military. Otherwise, her commitment to build a national
reconciliation government together with the military and ethnic in words and
deeds will be thoroughly questioned and would even be seen in league with the
military to subdue the ethnic aspirations of equality.
Other than that, all the rest of NLD
top decision makers would need to get rid of their phobia that the
military will find reasons not to hand over power like in the aftermath of 1990
NLD's landslide election win. It is evident that, the present military is keen
to improve its image and have embarked on a democratization process, even if it
is dubbed a discipline-flourishing democracy for whatever the said label is meant to portray.
The case in point here is that it is not about to throw away all the
progress made, which is a preparation for the military's soft-landing, that has
even reaped better international standing and acceptability in general for the
reform process made. But of course, the balance between the people's desire for
speedy democratization and the angst of the military class that wishes a
gradual withdrawal from the leadership role of the country will have to be worked
out, during the five year tenure of Suu Kyi's NLD regime. Only nobody could
foresee how this likely long drawn out compromise will unfold in the months and
years to come.
The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the
dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor
Tags: Opinion