Burma Top trio's Independence Day messages, breaching of NCA and the Union Peace Conference
As
Burma makes a rocky new year start, with the Burma Army (Tatmadaw) attacking a
position of Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA), popularly
known as SSA South, that has signed the government initiated nationwide
ceasefire agreement (NCA), in eastern Shan State on 31 December 2015, the three
Burmese top leaders, considered to be the movers and shakers of the country,
delivered Independence Day messages, which were quite different in essence, when one takes pain to read them
between the lines.
President
Thein Sein, the ex-military general, talked about discipline-flourishing
democracy, while Aung San Suu, head of the National League for Democracy (NLD),
reiterated her commitment to the establishing of genuine federalism and vowed
to bring forward the controversial NCA to become all-inclusive, as the
Commander-in-Chief emphasized and defended the military of waging a “just war”
for the purpose of the people and its commitment to defend the country's
sovereignty an territorial integrity.
Let
us look into it, with an eye fixed on the Union Peace Conference, scheduled to
be held from 12 to 16 January 2016, which should be the first step to iron out
the political differences and grievances that have existed for decades, between
military adversaries and ethnic nationalities, Bamar included.
President
Thein Sein
President Thein Sein in his
Independence Day message on 4 January explained that at the moment the country
is transitioning to a democratic state, in a three tier approach, reported the
Global New Light of Myanmar.
The first tier consists of drafting and
adopting the Constitution as preparatory groundwork for democracy, conducting
the 2010 general elections and making preparations for the formation of the
first Hluttaw (Parliament) and the Government and conducting the second general
elections in 2015 putting the country on the path to democracy. The second tier
consists of a gentle transition to democracy that has won international
recognition and led to a significant improvement in the international relations
of Myanmar. The third tier involves political dialogue to resolve issues such
as internal and external conflicts and problems of national groups to achieve a
more mature and established democracy.
In closing, he finally urged all the
people to work in unity for the realization of the following four goals of the
68th anniversary celebrations of the Independence Day with commitment, a sense
of responsibility and allegiance to the nation:
-
To have all the nationals living in the
Union together in ever-lasting harmony;
-
To safeguard the non-disintegration of
the Union, non-disintegration of national unity and perpetuation of sovereignty through the
efforts of all the national people;
-
To make an endeavour to achieve a
nation-wide ceasefire agreement and enduring peace;
-
To realize a discipline-flourishing new
modern developed democratic nation through the people’s strength.
Aung San Suu Kyi
On the occasion of the 68th
Independence Day anniversary, on 4 January 2016, held at the NLD Head
Office, Aung San Suu Kyi revealed her
priority setting among others to her audience as follows: “The first duty for
the incoming government is to build peace. We must hold a real effective peace
convention and make the presently signed ceasefire treaty to be more
all-inclusive. After that we all must try that genuine democratic federal union
of the future be built, as soon as possible. In doing so all citizens, Tatmadaw
(military) and ethnic nationalities must be involved. Not only the whole
country that has good will on us, the whole world would also need to help.”
“As during the struggle for
independence, all nationalities based on Panglong spirit and agreement had
strived together, at this moment, (we) should all work together to build a
genuine federal union,” stressed Aung San Suu Kyi.
On the same day, in a statement
supporting her speech, her party executive committee said that it is time to
get rid of the bad legacy and aimed to build a democratic federal union through
good experiences of unity, peace and democracy as an ultimate goal.
Her
priority setting remarks made clear that she intended to change the structure
and path of the peace process put in place by President U Thein Sein’s
military-backed government once her own administration takes office in late
March following her party’s landslide election victory.
Suu
Kyi had rebuffed the signing of the nationwide ceasefire accord at a grand
ceremony hosted by the president in Naypyitaw on October 15, 2015 and she also
confirmed, when she told Radio Free Asia, recently that due to her work load at
the parliament, she would not attend the first Union Peace Conference – the next
stage of political dialogue – with the ceasefire signatories to be held on
January 12, 2016.
On 10 January, Suu Kyi reportedly made a change of
heart and said that she would give a ten minute speech at the opening of the
Union Peace Convention, according to various media outlet, which was confirmed
by U Nyan Win in Voice of America.
Min Aung Hlaing
On the same Independence Day, speaking
at a ceremony honouring soldiers for their service Senior-General Min Aung
Hlaing said the country’s ongoing civil war was for the benefit of the nation’s
citizens, according to the 5 January report in Global New Light of Myanmar.
He
said: “Today, we are fighting for our nation, our people and our Tatmadaw, if
we have to say the truth, all Tatmadaw men, including the Commander-in-Chief of
the Defence Services, take an oath that they will fight only for justice. It is
the inherent duty of all citizens to protect, as national task, our land, air
and water territories, as well as lives and property of all nationalities.”
Apart
from taking credit that it is the Tatmadaw that has allowed and paved the way
for democratization and multi-party parliamentary system, he stressed that the
it will be around for quite a while by buttressing the point that “Myanmar
Tatmadaw cannot be separated from nation-building and state-building tasks, as
it has had the tradition of being involved in national politics.”
War in Kachin, Shan and Arakan states
While Thein Sein regime is geared to
hold the Union Peace Conference on 12 January with pomp and ceremony, inviting
some 1,200 people, the war in Kachin, Shan and Arakan states goes on, with no
sign of ending in the near future.
The military according to Myanmar Times
of 8 January, said that it will eliminate the Arakan Army (AA), following two
weeks of armed clashes in remote Arakan (Rakhine) State that had killed 20
Tatmadaw soldiers including a battalion commander.
In
Shan State, the Tatmadaw launched heavy offensives in early October against
forces of the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA), better
known as SSA North, an ethnic armed group that refused to sign the nationwide
ceasefire agreement.
The
fighting, which displaced an estimated 10,000 people and prevented elections
from being held in two townships, subsided in late November after the two sides
reached a preliminary agreement involving a limited withdrawal of Tatmadaw
forces. Despite the agreement on the return of IDPs, many civilians were still
afraid to return to their occupied villages, or were blocked by the military
from doing so.
As if to disrupt the signing of the
NCA, prior to signing the NCA for a few weeks on 16 September 2015, the
Tatmadaw from LIBs 152 and 99 unleashed an offensive against the SSA South near
Kholam sub-township Namzang township, Shan State, using helicopters and
reportedly fighter jets, which nearly made the latter to opt out of the peace
process, had it not been for the patience and eagerness of Sao Yawd Serk, head
of the RCSS, to sign the treaty.
Despite of such patience and bending
over backwards, again on New Year's eve, according to SSA South spokesman, the Tatmadaw attacked their position at about
1 p.m. on 31 December 2015, in Mong Peng Township in eastern Shan State's Monghsat
distrit. The clash allegedly lasted one hour and involved the Tatmadaw Infantry
Battalion No. 278. He said one soldier was killed and another wounded on RCSS
side.
This incidence was, however, downplayed
when the RCSS protested in earnest that the terms of NCA might need to be
reviewed.
Colonel Wunna Aung of Joint Ceasefire
Monitoring Committee (JMC) said that it was an accidental clash for the RCSS
troops movement came near to the Tatmadaw position, which the former said that
their troops have been around for years as guerilla movement, even before the
signing of NCA, but only lately have established temporary base camps and
misunderstood by the Tatmadaw as expanding their areas of influence.
Union Peace Conference
To keep up with the timeline of 90 days
and start the political dialogue, Union Peace Conference is scheduled to take
place from 12 to 16 January.
As agreed by the Union Political
Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) - made up of the government/parliament, 8
ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and political parties, each having 16
representatives respectively, making a body of 48 altogether - 150
representatives each from, the government/parliament, the Tatmadaw, political
parties, 8 EAOs and 50 representatives each from non-signatories EAOs and other
invited individuals including outside experts, altogether 700 plus nearly 500
others, including the non-signatory EAOs, are slated to attend the conference.
Accordingly, the UPDJC agreed to discuss five topics at the
country’s first political dialogue following a two-day preparatory meeting at
the Myanmar Peace Centre (MPC) on 6
January, reported the Global New Light of Myanmar on 7 January.
The five agenda items
include political issues, economic issues and social issues, security and land
and natural resources management. The stakeholders used the two-day pre-meeting
to prepare for the discussion, said U Aung Naing Oo, a programme director at
the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC).
On 6 January, U Hla Maung Shwe, a senior
adviser at the MPC, said that the special invitees include the three groups the
government is not engaged in armed conflict with, and seven groups that turned
down the government’s invitation to sign the ceasefire, according to the
Myanmar Times.
“Seven representatives from
each of the seven groups and three delegates each from the Wa National
Organization, the Lahu Democratic Union and the Arakan National Council were
sent invitations,” he said.
The invitations continued to exclude the three armed ethnic groups
fighting the government troops in the Kokang self-administered areas: the
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National
Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA).
On 7 January, an armed ethnic alliance
United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), that did not sign an October ceasefire agreement
with the Burmese regime announced that it will not participate in upcoming
political dialogue.
UNFC spokesman Twan Zaw, who also
serves as secretary of the Arakan National Council, said after a meeting that the group won't participate in
the conference, stating three points as the reason.
The first is the lack of
all-inclusiveness, the second the government's “discriminatory” treatment of
non-signatories and third, the framework for the dialogue drafted by
signatories in December is not what the UNFC wants.
Likewise, the United Wa State Army
(UWSA) and National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS),
popularly known as Mong La, also confirmed the rejection of the regime's
invitation on 7 January, according to Eleven Media Group.
The UWSA spokesman Zhao Guo-an said
that since the government is still engaging in armed conflict with the RCSS,
TNLA, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), also known as Kokang,
and AA there is no point to attend the conference and that it will negotiate
with the incoming new government and intend to make peace in Wa region.
NDAA-ESS spokesman U Kyi Myint aka
Zhang Zhiming said: “We are not all walking in the same direction. It is better
all armed groups participate in the peace talks but not all groups have been
invited. We are not supporting it and we will not attend the conference.”
On 5 January, 126 civil society
organizations urged government negotiators, known as the Union Peacemaking
Working Committee, and the eight ethnic armed group signatories to postpone the
talks in Naypyitaw because of ongoing conflict in Arakan, Kachin and Shan
States.
Furthermore, in its seven point
statement, one of it pinpoints: “We are of the position that changing the
concept of political dialogue based on a tripartite representation as outlined
in the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement into that of a pentagonal representation
has the potential to weaken the focus on developing a federal union based on
democracy and ethnic equality, which are central to Burma’s political problem.”
Apart from such rejections, Hkun Htun
Oo, leader of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) and United
Nationalities Alliance (UNA) told SHAN and Radio Free Asia that he couldn't see
any benefit of holding the conference which was not inclusive and didn't want
to go down in the history as a culprit endorsing the wrong move. Other than
that, he said that he had not signed the NCA and that there is also no point to
attend the Union Peace Conference now.
Analysis
The careful study of the three most
important Bamar leaders revealed what they might have in store, as their future
political outlook of the country.
President Thein Sein is no doubt, a
staunch proponent of the military inspired “discipline-flourishing democracy”,
as outlined in his Independence Day message. As such, although not spelling out
word for word, his strategic goal is a watered down, presidential unitary
system with some devolution involved in power-sharing, giving a semblance of a
federal union. A far cry from the position of the ethnic nationalities' aspired
national state-based federalism, as envisaged by the Panglong Agreement of
1947.
Thus, it is safe to conclude that his
political goal is, at the least, a gradual withdrawal – say after 10 to 15 years
later, as his Commander-in-Chief have time and again reiterated to the press -
of the military from political arena, once the military desired fall-back
position is secured. But whether this could be achievable or accommodated at
this juncture is totally another question.
Aung San Suu Kyi reiterated her stance
of all-inclusiveness in the signing of NCA and made it a point in her new year
message that this will be her government main task, so that peace and
reconciliation within the mould of a genuine federalism could be achieved, as
soon as possible.
At one time, not so long ago, she even
said that Bamar is also an ethnic group and one of the ethnic nationalities, a
far cry from the military and most Bamar politicians posture of wanting to be
aloof in relation to ethnic nationality label and staying above it as a
dominating political class.
In contrast, Commander-in-Chief Min
Aung Hlaing in his new year speech at a ceremony honouring soldiers for their
service make it plain that the Tatmadaw waging wars on the ethnic resistance
forces are justified in protecting sovereignty and territorial integrity. It
seems the ethnic nationalities' position of political grievances of not having
a fair political and resources sharing have not been heard and understood,
after all these years.
The ethnic nationalities opted for
armed resistance as they were unable to address their grievances in political
arena, which in effect are their right to shared-sovereignty, equality and
rights of self-determination.
Min Aung Hlaing further made a point
that the military has paved the way for the recent democratization and
multi-party system and is not about to opt out of the political arena anytime
soon.
Finally, the Union Peace Conference
won't be attended by the UNFC, UWSA and NDAA-ESS.
This means the conference will again be
a partial-conference, lacking the all-inclusive nature of being nationwide,
aside from the rejection of the more than 100 Civil Society Organizations on
the same ground.
At this writing, the UPDJC is said to
be drawing outline and principles on how to determine the five sphere of
political, economy, social, security, land use and environmental protection,
which will be discussed at the first Union Peace Conference. If it is just an
introduction to later further develop during the incoming NLD regime, it is
fine and good. But if this is to impose on the new regime, with the present
UPDJC dominated by the military and its like-minded coalition that is not at
all inclusive, it would only be imposing one's will on the other. And this
can't be good for the country.
The most crucial point, however, is the
determination on how a federal form of government be agreed upon. And the
outlines and principles prescribed by the recent UPDJC setting couldn't be
appropriate, as it has no exclusive right to do so.
For the ethnic nationalities
leadership, most of which are non-signatories of the NCA, including ethnic
political parties and civil societies, also have their own version of
federalism aspiration based on Panglong agreement (promises), 1948 Union of
Burma Constitution and 1961 Federal Proposal, which are historical documents
and treaty that need to be taken into account. And the incorporation of the
ethnic desired guideline or principle is a necessity, when deliberation of the
future federal union is considered within the Union Peace Conference.
The Union Peace Conference is supposed
to be a second Panglong Conference, if it is to the liking of Aung San Suu Kyi
and the ethnic nationalities in general. And the conference is now going
to be a testing ground on how power-sharing and resources-sharing be conducted.
The end game scenario is going to be
the struggle between the entrenched old power of the military, determined not
to fade away anytime soon, by doing everything it can to secure its leading
role in political decision-making apparatus for unforeseeable future and the
combined people's power vested in Aung San Suu Kyi and the majority of the
ethnic nationalities, armed and unarmed, to make a change by building a genuine
federal union.
But how this end game scenario is going
to play out is a question, only time would be able to answer.
The
contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU)
— Editor
Tags: Opinion
