Actually Aung San Suu Kyi's plate is full even before her government in waiting takes up position. Aside from having to work on the transition of political power from quasi-civilian Thein Sein regime to her election winning National League for Democracy (NLD), thinking of ways to overcome the Section 59 (F) that bars her from becoming President and preparing personnel to run the government, ministries and so on, she still has to think of how to lay the groundwork and   formation of the national reconciliation government.

When one talks about national reconciliation it is meant the workable political power sharing formula between the ethnic nationalities, the military and the NLD. And this is also what Aung San Suu Kyi has promised on the eve of her NLD landslide election victory to be her first priority and has already taken steps to realize it.

To date she has met President Thein Sein, Commander in Chief Min Aung Hlaing and the retired Senior-General Than Shwe, who is believed to be the over all real boss of the military, better known as Tatmadaw.

It was believed that a deal has been struck between the military and Aung San Suu Kyi, for after meeting the trio separately, the power transfer procedure accelerated in leaps and bounds, whereas the President and Commander-in-Chief had been reluctant to cooperate prior to Suu Kyi's meeting with the Senior-General Than Shwe.

While she has been quick, demanding and at time plainly showed her frustration, in approaching the military to realize her reconciliation scheme, she is somewhat reluctant and unnecessary slow, when it comes to the part of meeting the ethnic nationalities, whether be it political parties or armed resistance movements.

Let us look at this portion of her activities in the aftermath of her public position declaration to form national reconciliation government, comprising of ethnic nationalities and the military.

NLD meets ethnic nationalities

To date, the NLD has met the 8 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that have signed the NCA after repeated approach of the latter, while meeting the other 13 EAOs that are non-signatories have so far not taken place. The NLD said that meeting the latter group would only be able to realize after it takes over the reign of power, at the end of March 2016.

Likewise, Suu Kyi's long stated desire to meet the ethnic political parties has also not taken place at this writing for reasons unknown. The United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) is an eight party ethnic political alliance that has worked closely with the NLD, under the banner of Committee Representing the People's Parliament (CRPP), during the repressive years of two military regimes, State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) and State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), that lasted some two decades.

The UNA members are: the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), the Mon National Party (MNP), the Kayah National Party (KNP), the Kachin National Democracy Congress Party (KNDCP), the Arakan National Party (ANP), the Zomi Democracy League Party (ZDLP), the Karen National Party (KNP), and the Shan State Kokang Democratic Party (SSKDP).

On 29 December 2015, the UNA met at SNLD office in Rangoon to figure out on how to go about with the cooperation regarding ethnic nationalities and union related issues, if NLD decided to discuss them with the UNA.

At the end of the two days meeting U Aye Thar Aung, central committee member of ANP said: “We discussed quite comprehensively on relation with the NLD. NLD and UNA had worked together in the aftermath of the 1990 elections, especially under the organization (banner) of CRPP. Now in 2015, the NLD won the election again, while four parties from UNA also won. Therefore, the issues (of cooperation) on inner and outside of parliament, ethnic nationalities, internal peace, federal union formation and 2008 constitutional amendments will be discussed and implemented, if NLD would reach out to the UNA”, according to the Eleven Media report on 29 December 2015.

NLD's interaction with UPDJC

The interaction with the NLD and Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) at the start was somewhat icy and guarded.

NLD spokesperson U Win Htein at the end of November 2016 said that he couldn't see any reason to involve small parties considered proxy parties of the USDP that didn't even won the election and the UPDJC acted as if election has never occurred.

He stressed and told Myanmar Now: “In the future, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will look at this process. We will review the processes of the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC).” 

A few weeks later, on 15 December, U Nyan Win, attending the UPDJC meeting as NLD representative gave blessing and approved the stakeholders' quota, incorporated in the framework for political dialogue (FPD), tabled by the 8 EAOs, which were said to be problematic among the participants.

Meeting minutes of the two days gathering leaking out suggested that SNLD, ANP and UNA were not sharing the 7 party formula that the UPDJC, including NLD, has accepted with the simple majority vote and asked that it be recorded that a lot of political parties were not fully of the same opinion.

“The ethnic armed groups thanked the NLD for approving the political dialogue framework draft. The approved framework is a firm pledge to ethnic minorities. All stakeholders agreed to change the approved framework if needed,” said Dr Salai Lian Hmung of the Chin National Front.

Later on the NLD's cordial and cooperation posture, in contrast to the icy position just a few weeks back was made known, when party spokesman U Nyan Win said: “The NLD won’t ever step back from the peace process. We are here to show we are cooperating.”

Committee representatives plan to hold the first round of formal dialogue  on 12 January 2016, and they have decided to invite 150 representatives each from government, the parliament, the military, ethnic armed groups as well as political parties. The committee will also invite 50 individual ethnic representatives and 50 other participants.

 

NLD changing tack?

The initial political posture of the NLD, or better its leader Aung San Suu Kyi, is all-inclusiveness participation in the peace process. She even refused to sign the NCA on 8 December 2015, on the ground for lack of all-inclusiveness.

On 7 December 2015,  during the parliamentary debate session, NLD party MP Dr May Win Myint gave three reasons for not signing the NCA by her party.

“Our NLD Chairperson didn’t sign on this NCA. The main reason behind not signing this agreement is its failure to cover the entire nation and it is in the nature of partial coverage only. And another reason is it can likely create misunderstanding among signatory organizations and non-signatory organizations and the last reason is the government may likely exert pressure on non-signatory armed organizations,” Dr May Win Myint said, according to the report of Mizzima on 8 December 2015.

One and a half week later, at a meeting on 17 December 2015,  Aung San Suu Kyi revealed to the 8  ethnic armed signatories of Burma’s so-called “nationwide” ceasefire agreement why she opted not to sign the contentious pact and explained her plans for advancing the country’s peace process.

Suu Kyi hosted 8 EAOs' leaders from the Karen National Union (KNU), Chin National Front (CNF), Pa-O National Organization (PNO), Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF), among other groups, at Suu Kyi’s rule of law office in the capital Naypyitaw.

“Aung San Suu Kyi told us she wants to avoid additional disunity between ethnic armed signatories and non-signatories,” said KNU secretary Pado Kwe Htoo Win, adding that although Suu Kyi agreed with the ceasefire text, which was drafted by ethnic armed groups and the government, she wanted all ethnic groups to be involved in efforts to resolve ethnic conflict, according to the 19 December 2015 report of The Irrawaddy.

And thus, the change of tack from the part of NLD becomes clear that it is abandoning the stance of all-inclusiveness to approve the framework for political dialogue and has given the green light, which includes the exclusion of Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Arakan Army (AA) and Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta'ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA) in the Union Peace Convention.

NLD's position on States Chief Minister election

Apart from the NLD or Suu Kyi's changing of tack on the issue of all-inclusiveness of the EAOs in NCA and the reluctance to meet the UNA,  a senior member of NLD said on 24 December 2015, the party planned to appoint NLD lawmakers to chief minister posts across Burma’s state and regional parliaments, dashing and crushing the hopes of at least one major ethnic political party that had publicly coveted to such a position.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy, NLD central committee member Nang Khin Htwe Myint said chief ministers of Burma’s state parliaments would be ethnic NLD candidates, as selected by the country’s new president according to the 2008 Constitution.

If what Nang Khin Htwe Myint said is the policy of NLD and meant to be that of Aung San Suu Kyi, we are in for a latent conflict between the NLD and ethnic nationalities as a whole instead of a cooperation to build a just and fair genuine federal union.

It is all along understood that the democratic camp, including the NLD, are of the opinion that the Chief State Minister should be elected by the people of the concerned state and not the Union President, as prescribed by the military-drafted constitution.

The NLD was sympathetic when the ethnic MPs were trying to change this section so that they could elect their own State Chief Minister. But now it is going to use the constitutional privilege that is granted to the President to put its own people as State Chief Ministers.

It is understandable, if the NLD exercises such authority in states and regions that it has won with the majority. But at least it should endorse and support the home-grown political parties candidates in Arakan and Shan States, where the ethnic parties won with a big margin and achieved sizeable seats more than the NLD.

In Rakhine (Arakan) State legislature,  ANP won 23 seats with 48.9%, the appointed Military would occupy 12 seats with 25.5%,  NLD won 9 seats with 19.1%, and  USDP won 3 seats with 6.4%, making ANP the most winning party.

But in Shan State legislature, the appointed Military would occupy 39 seats with 27.5%, USDP won 33 seats with 23.2%, SNLD won 25 seats with 17.6%,  NLD won 23 seats with 16.2%, and the other won 22 seats 15.5% [TNP 7; PNO 6; Lahu NDP 2; WDP 2; Akha NDP 1; Lisu NDP 1; SNDP 1; Wa National United Party (WNUP) 1; Independent 1] (Source: Transnational Institute, Amsterdam – 17 December 2015)

Sum up and analysis

Thein Sein regime, in its last ditch effort, is doing everything to go down in the history as a reformer and projecting the Union Peace Convention (UPC), on 12 January 2016, as the only game in town. Further, it is using all means to woo the non-signatory EAOs to join the fray as special invitees.

This, however, is unlikely to happen for the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), which is the bulwark of non-signatory alliance of 8 armed ethnic groups,  is not ready to give the regime's peace process a legitimacy touch, for by attending the UPC it would mean that it agrees to the NCA signed on 15 October with the 8 EAOs and also the FPD approved on 15 December. Other than that, attending the convention would be tantamount to the acceptance of the all-inclusiveness rejection posture argued and promoted by the Thein Sein regime.

The regime exclusion of MNDAA, AA and PSLF/TNLA is, in the words of Ma Htung, Program Manager of the Ethnic Nationalities Affairs Center (ENAC) with close link to the UNFC: “ They were in the process until the NCA [was signed], but what stopped them was [a lack of] inclusiveness—their only demand was to include all groups [in the agreement]. Why did the government not want to accept all groups? This is nonsense, real nonsense.”

The labelling of MNDAA or Kokang as foreigners (Chinese), aided by China and rejecting it as foreign proxy from the peace process is neither appropriate nor logical, for the Kokangnese have been there for hundreds of years ruled by their Saohpas until 1958 and also categorically included as one of the 135 ethnic groups acknowledged by the successive Burmese regimes.

The same is true to the AA and TNLA. For the Thein Sein regime, it is like saying that “the friend of my enemy is my enemy”, not unlike the motto of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”.

The AA and MNDAA have been fighting along together with the MNDAA, since the outbreak of war in Kokang area, in early February 2015.

In addition, the regime has visited and invited UWSA and NDAA also known as Mong La to attend the January UPC, but so far the two groups have not replied.

Regarding the State Chief Ministers' appointment, the NLD should show broad-mindedness to prove that it is keeping it’s promises to amend the constitution to be a genuine federalism, by accommodating home-grown ethnic political parties MPs ( SNLD and ANP for example) and not making use of the unfair power monopoly of the President drafted by the military clique.

It is now up to the NLD to choose, whether it would opt for cooperation with the ethnic nationalities or confrontation, which in turn will also help determine if it is for real justified genuine federalism or watered down version of unitary system with some democratic window dressing that the military clique is keen to employ.

Concerning the NLD delayed meeting with the non-signatory EAOs, who are still considered illegal organizations, some said it could be because of the Unlawful Association Act, Section 17/1, which is punishable if one is to be in association with such groups. Convincing enough, for Suu Kyi and her henchmen are not in the government yet until the end of March, in 2016. And as such couldn't risk to be in conflict with the rule of law.

Finally, Suu Kyi and NLD should prove that they really mean business and reach out to the eagerly waiting UNA, to fulfil the campaign promises of national reconciliation, without delay.

The Contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SUD) – Editor