As the scheduled Catalonia referendum of November 9 draws nearer, the confrontation between the Spanish government and the Catalonia regional government becomes more intense. While Spain's Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria emphasized that one of the main reasons to block the ballot was to protect Catalan civil servants so they are not forced to break the law, as according to the Spanish government, the ballot is against Spain's constitution, President of the regional government of Catalonia Artur Mas stand fast and said that the government of Catalonia will continue organizing the ballot scheduled forNovember 9 and announced the possibility of taking "legal action" against the Spanish government as he considers they are interfering with issues that are under the region's rule.

In September, even after the Spanish Constitutional Court temporarily suspended the non-binding referendum, which means that the referendum was temporarily suspended until the court makes a definitive decision on the substance of the matter, the watered-down version, initiated by Mas, of the referendum without legal binding, led by volunteers and supported by a large part of the local governments of Catalonia, the Spanish government still seeks to block this second attempt to hold a ballot.

Why Vote?

A summarized version on why a referendum on self-determination is necessary to reset the relationship between Catalonia and Spain is explained by “Catalonia Votes” website as follows:-

It is the popular demand of more than 80% of Catalan in opinion polls, and of a clear majority of members of the Catalan parliament.

Catalonia has always had a distinct culture and language and a strong desire for self-government. Though Catalonia lost its independence in 1714, there was a political and cultural renaissance in the 19th century which eventually led to the proclamation of the Catalan Republic in 1931. Subsequent negotiations with the Spanish Republic led to a wide-reaching autonomy. However, General Franco’s fascist victory in 1939 led to the suspension of Catalonia’s autonomy, a ban on the Catalan language, and a fierce repression forcing 200,000 Catalans to go into exile. Franco also ordered the execution of Catalonia’s President at that time, Lluís Companys.

After Franco’s death, 1977 saw the return of the Catalan President, Josep Tarradellas who had been elected in exile. This allowed for the re-establishment of the autonomous government. Subsequently, the Spanish Constitution of 1978 and the 1979 Statute of Autonomy for Catalonia set the limits of its autonomy.

Spain has become economically and socially modernised since then but it has not fully accommodated its internal diversity into its political set-up. A new statute of autonomy, agreed by referendum in Catalonia and passed by the Spanish parliament in 2006, was drastically altered by a controversial court ruling in 2010. Catalonia’s proposal for greater fiscal autonomy was then rejected out of hand. Attacks against Catalonia’s education system and linguistic rights have also increased and more and more recentralisation measures are being taken.

According to BBC, until recently, few Catalans wanted full independence, but Spain's painful economic crisis has seen a surge in support for separation. Many Catalans believe the affluent region pays more to Madrid than it gets back, and blame much of Spain's debt crisis on the central government.

The regional government, in power since snap elections in November 2012 gave a majority to separatist parties, plans a November 2014 referendum on independence, which it said would be non-binding after the Spanish parliament and courts declared it unconstitutional.

Grievances and Reasons

Generally, four main reasons have been given concerning the current drive for Catalonia's independence. They are, according to Matthew Bennett, editor of The Spain Report, which provides daily news and analysis about political and economic goings on in Spain, firstly, the failed attempt to negotiate a constitutional arrangement between the Spanish government and Catalonia during the 2000s; secondly, the economic crisis; thirdly, the upsurge of Catalan national identity, while Spain still has some historic problems with collective national identity to solve; and finally, the firm 'no' position of the current Spanish, Popular Party government.

In the same vein, on 11 September 2012, Catalan News Agency published an article, titled “ Catalonia's independence from Spain?” , written by Gaspar Pericay Coll, as follows.

In fact, in general terms, Catalan nationalism has been seeking agreements with the Spanish nationalists for the last 150 years, trying to find a comfortable place for the Catalan nation within the Spanish state. Independence supporters existed, but most of the time they were a minority within Catalan nationalism. Now, according to the latest poll conducted by the Catalan Statistics Institute (CEO), 51% of Catalan citizens would vote for the independence in a hypothetical referendum. It is the highest figure ever.

There are four main reasons: little respect for Catalan language and culture; Spain’s lack of recognition of its plurinational nature; the attempts to recentralise Spain and trim Catalonia’s self-government; and, Catalonia’s excessive fiscal contribution to pay for investments and services delivered in the rest of Spain, an amount that official studies made by the Spanish Finance Ministry stated it represents between 6.4% and 8.7% of Catalonia’s GDP annually (between €13.1 billion and €17.8 billion). Recent political movements by Spanish nationalists have demonstrated the first three reasons. The economic crisis has emphasised the unfairness of the fourth reason, since now Catalonia cannot pay for its basic services and has the largest debt among the Autonomies despite continuing to transfer the largest amount of money to the rest of Spain and being a net contributor to the European Union for decades. Furthermore, after the fiscal redistribution, Catalonia has worse public services than subsidised regions.

In this scenario, traditionally Catalan nationalists would have tried to negotiate with the Spanish nationalists and smooth over the situation. In fact, the new fiscal agreement that the Catalan Government is trying to push forward but that the Spanish Government refuses to negotiate still applies this logic. However, a large part of the Catalan population is extremely tired of these negotiations and has given up all hope of an agreement. The Spanish Government’s refusal to even discuss a new fiscal agreement between Catalonia and Spain, similar to what the Basque Country and Navarra already have, reaffirms the exasperation of many Catalan nationalists trying to reform Spain. Most of them have given up trying and have concluded that the only solution is independence.

Stakeholders

The major stakeholders are the Catalan nationalist and the Spanish government.

There are currently seven parties represented in the Catalan Parliament:

Convergència i Unió (CiU) has 50 MPs (‘diputats’ in Catalan) and currently forms a minority government thanks to a Stability Pact with the main opposition party, ERC. CiU itself is a long-standing stable coalition of two parties which present a joint list of candidates at elections. Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya (CDC – liberals) is the larger partner, the smaller being Unió Democràtica de Catalunya (UDC – Christian Democrats). CiU is in favour of the creation of a Catalan State and supports the holding of a referendum in Catalonia for Catalans to decide their own future.

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) has 21 MPs and is the leading opposition party. It is a left-wing, pro-independence party and campaigns for a referendum in Catalonia for Catalans to decide their own future.

The Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) has 20 MPs. It is federated with the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE). It is in favour of a constitutional reform to make Spain a federal country.

The Partit Popular (PP) has 19 MPs. It is a right-wing party in favour of Spanish unity and is also the party currently in Government in Spain. They are against holding a referendum on the future status of Catalonia.

Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds – Esquerra Unida i Alternativa (ICV-EUiA) has 13 MPs. It is a left-wing, green party and is in favour of a referendum on the future status for Catalonia.

Ciutadans – Partido de la Ciudadanía (C’s) has 9 MPs. It first entered Parliament in 2006. It campaigns in favour of Spanish unity, seeking to attract votes from both left and right-wing voters and is against the celebration of a referendum.

Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Alternativa d’Esquerres (CUP) has 3 MPs. It first entered Parliament in 2012. It is an alternative left party, and is in favour of independence. (Source: Catalonia Votes)

The Spanish Government position is that it "will not allow" and "will not negotiate" on Catalonia’s self-determination vote.

“I want to tell you with all clarity that this consultation will not take place”, emphasised the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, on 12 December 2013, evening referring to Catalonia’s self-determination vote, according to the Catalan News Agency.

The two biggest parties, with parliamentary representation in the Parliament of Spain, People's Party (PP) with 186 seats and Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) with 110 seats are against the referendum, while only small Plural Left Party with 11 seats, Basque separatist party, Amaiur, with 7 seats, and Basque Nationalist Party, with 5 seats are for the Catalan referendum of self-determination. (Source: Wikipidia – Catalan Self-determination Referendum, 2014)

Spanish government hard stance

The failed attempt to negotiate for a constitutional arrangement during the 2000s, is coupled by Madrid Constitutional Court ruling, in 2012 July, that there is no legal basis for recognising Catalonia as a nation within Spain and that Catalan should not take precedence over Castilian in the region. The decision, in response to a complaint by the opposition centre-right People's Party, angers Catalan nationalists and is criticised by the regional government.

Following the re-election of regional head Artur Mas, in 2012 December, after his coalition pact with the left-wing ERC, both parties support to hold a referendum on secession from Spain in 2014.

In 2013 January, Catalonia's regional parliament approves a "declaration of sovereignty" aimed at paving the way for a referendum on independence from Spain in 2014.

Refusal of referendum and possible scenarios

Matthew Bennett, editor of The Spain Report, which provides daily news and analysis about political and economic going in Spain, on 14 September, in an interview by Business Insider explained the situation as follows:-

Three things: people, the economy and the 21st Century.

First, there are a lot (1-2 million) independence supporters who come out onto the streets of Catalonia for the independence marches. If they all turn up at voting stations on November 9 and the ballot boxes are waiting for them, there will unlikely be enough police to stop them.

Second, the economic arguments are a double-edged sword: yes, there would likely be huge economic chaos short term after any attempt at independence but, equally, if the Catalans try to walk away with 19% of Spanish GDP and 26% of exports right now, the weakened Spanish economy will tank, and that will create would cause a huge sucking sound in Europe, and then maybe globally.

Thirdly, this is the 21st-Century, not the 19th-Century with horse charges and swords, or the 1930s with communists and fascists prepping for civil war. Supporters of Catalan independence like to say this will never be a violent revolution, so would Madrid ever have the balls to send police, soldiers and tanks to Barcelona to arrest people and stop it happening (which is what the legal threats ultimately imply)? Many Spanish conservatives also doubt Mr. Rajoy would have the guts to actually stop this taking place, despite him having lots of legal authority and actual power to try if he wants to (he could, in theory, order Mas and Junqueras arrested and suspend regional government altogether). That's what happened the last time the Catalans tried this, in 1934. Artillery pieces and machine guns were brought onto the streets of Barcelona, 46 people were killed and the Catalan First Minister, Companys, sentenced to 30 years in jail for rebellion.

Another speculation is that, if everything fails, Catalonia could declare unilateral independence, although this might still be far-fetched, according to experts.

Comparative points with Burma's ethnic self-determination

Catalonia has a very high level of autonomy and healthy economy but the Spanish government implementation and attitude of diluting Catalonia national identity has ushered the Catalan to seek for a referendum on self-determination.

In Burma, non-Burman ethnic nationalities are still struggling to attain rights of self-determination, equality and democracy in the form of a federal set-up, while their territories are under military occupation under the pretext of “national unity”.

If there is any lesson to be learned from the Catalan experience, the recent call for self-determination or secession referendum could have been avoided, if the Spanish government have been open to the constitutional arrangement to exist side-by-side as nations on equal basis. Instead, the Spanish government has been trying to subdue the nationalism upsurge, leading the Catalan to take a more drastic action.

The core point here is the international tendency of the ethnic upsurge or ethnic rights of self-determination, which is unstoppable and could not be contained. Although this does not mean a just constitutional arrangement could not hold the nations together, within a federation or agreed collective political entity. Canada's Quebec and UK's Scotland are also good examples, where referendum were held and the majority still like to stay within the union. But nevertheless, the right to vote on their political destiny must be given, under the norm of the peoples' right to self-determination.

If comparison has to be made between non-Burman ethnic nationalities and Catalan movement, the Catalan are very well off in that they have the opportunity to express their will through the ballot box, while Burma's ethnic groups still have to beg for equality and federalism, coupled with military suppression, occupation, economic exploitation and human rights violations.

The only common thing between them is the urge and struggle for rights of self-determination.

Conclusion

The dissatisfaction of the Catalan in diluting their national identity and what they see as economic exploitation by the Spanish government would continue to be there, even if it could halt the planned, watered-down referendum of “public consultation” through public participatory process.

For now, the Catalan cannot be sure if they would be able to vote and hopefully, the Spanish government will find a way out to accommodate the will of the people, instead of denying their right to express their rights of self-determination.