It is true that the "iron is still hot", as pointed out by the SHAN Editorial. But the matter is, it is cooling fast and both sides, the USDP-Military Regime and the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO), should take into account.

While it is quite easy to put the blame on the EAO for postponing the much talk about Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) until a newly elected regime is in store, after the 2015 election, which is by no means a concrete statement or policy line already decided, it is just a rumor and should only be treated as such. Besides, no one doubts, if the general clause of political settlement, leading to equality, rights of self-determination ေ democracy is accepted and included in the NCA, the EAO will sign it anytime the government wish to do it.

But the problem is the USDP-Military Regime has rejected the core ethnic aspirations of “federalism and rights of self-determination”, which it previously has accepted in August peace talks, and even refused to put it in the NCA documentation. Apart from that, if ever there is going to be an NCA, the regime insists that it has to sail through the USDP-Military dominated parliament for approval and endorsement, which explicitly means that the EAO must bow to the 2008 military-drawn Constitution without question. This is a non-starter for the EAO have been up in arms to correct this "constitutional crisis" all along, for more equality, democracy and self-determination.

The recent military pressures and offensives in Kachin, Shan, Karen and Mon States, coupled with its ultimatum to make use of its "open book" strategy, where individual group could sign the book according to its wish or liking, in contrast to signing it altogether at the same time, are not well thought out plan on the part of the regime, working only on time pressure to achieve result and not accommodating the real aspirations of the non-Burman ethnic nationalities and EAO.

Such being the case, it takes two to tango, as the saying goes, the USDP-Military regime should reaffirm its already committed  August agreement of accepting to tackle "federal union and federal army formation" during the political dialogue phase and not rejecting, after agreeing, like it is doing now. Otherwise, the regime would be asking for a "negotiated surrender" of the EAO and this would only lead to more armed confrontation and total break-down of the peace process.

The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor