It is a belated invitation, but nevertheless, a welcome move that President Thein Sein asked for the gathering and holding a meeting, on 31 October, between representatives of the government, parliament, military and political parties.

According to the recent DVB report, 29 October, the meeting is due to be attended by the following 14 individuals: President Thein Sein and his two vice-presidents; parliamentary speakers Shwe Mann and Khin Aung Myint; National League for Democracy Chairperson Aung San Suu Kyi; the military’s Commander-in-Chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing; Vice-Commander-in-Chief Vice Snr-Gen Soe Win; Union Election Commission Chairman Tin Aye; SNLD Chairman Hkun Htun Oo; Shan State Nationalities Democratic Party Chairman Sai Aik Pao (who will attend on behalf of an alliance of ethnic political parties called the Nationalities Brotherhood Federation); the National Democratic Force Chairman Khin Maung Swe (representing the Federal Democracy Alliance); Than Tin from the National Unity Party; and an as yet unnamed representative from the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party.

Quite a lot of opinions have been aired by prominent politicians and individuals on what they expect and think of the forthcoming ad hoc meeting. Accordingly, talks will center around peace process, national reconciliation and the reform process of the country.

Many welcome the so-called “Big Nine” meeting and hope that something viable would come out of the gathering. Only a few comments were outright negative and the others see the President move as being a calculated move, to project himself on a good stead.

According to 29 October AP report, the upcoming Friday's meeting would be a little more than window dressing — an attempt to show participants at the upcoming East Asian Summit that political dialogue is continuing.
"It's a PR stunt," said Yan Myo Thein, a political analyst. "The government has a tendency to hold such high-profile meetings to coincide with regional or international events. I don't expect any tangible outcome from this meeting."

In another interview of DVB, on 29 October, with Daw Khun Ja, Kachin Peace Congress, said: “ I think the President is doing this to please President Obama for he would be coming soon. If he is sincere, it should have been done long time ago.”
In addition she stressed that sincere and genuine will to achieve peace must be there to make achievement and that the Burmese military need to be involved for the sake of the suffering people.

In short, many past high-level peace talks, in General Ne Win and general Than Shwe eras, had been held without success, due to the demand of the Burmese military regime to totally surrender and follow the desire of the ruling clique. The present situation is also the same, although it looks a bit more civil and refined, with some international organizations involved in the sideline.

At the end of the day, the forthcoming, high-level meeting would be judged by its outcome of whether there is a viable compromise and accommodation to end the ethnic conflict could be reached or not. And there is no way around, other than to address the ethnic aspirations of “equality, democracy and rights of self-determination”. In other words, acceptance of the formation of a genuine federal union. Otherwise, the gathering will be only one of the many ad hoc meeting like in the past, without having any positive impact on the betterment of the country.

The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor