TWO ARMED ETHNIC UMBRELLA GROUPS HOLD SEPARATE MEETING: Ethnic Armed Organizations prepare to mobilize their bargaining positions
Equally, the
government's Peace Commission (PC) is also not idle as it has been meeting with
the UNFC and also trying to meet the FPNCC, through the good office of Sun
Guoxiang, Special Envoy of Asian Affairs with China’s Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, according to the media.
UNFC's last
ditch effort?
Different from
the past, the UNFC, comprised of 7 EAOs, has invited all 21 EAOs to its
bi-annual conference scheduled to be held from June 20 to 29.
“In the first
section [of the conference], we will hold a meeting among the UNFC
members. The meeting with non‐UNFC
members will be held in the second section. The first program will take seven days. It will be held from
June 20 to 26. The second program will be held
from June 27 to 29,” according to Tun
Zaw, joint general secretary of the UNFC.
The second
program would discuss about common programs for all EAOs based on the decision
made in KIO controlled area, Mai Ja Yang, during the ethnic leadership meeting
in 2016.
Reportedly, at
the conference, apart from mapping out policy matters and conducting new
election, the UNFC is expected to make decisions regarding applications for
new members, or allowing other members
to resign. Two of the current seven members, the Kachin Independence Organization/Army
(KIO/KIA) and the Wa National Organization (WNA) have both submitted resignation notices that will be discussed.
Earlier, two
years ago, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA),
both the UNFC members have also tendered resignation, due to the inability of
the UNFC to help them out of armed engagements with the Burma Army or Tatmadaw,
but no official approval was heard and just generally taken as being accepted.
Following the
Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) signing of the 8 EAOs in October 2015, the
Chin National Front (CNF) and the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO)
were also dismissed by the UNFC for not sticking to its majority decision not
to sign the NCA.
But the Karen
National Union (KNU) even before the NCA signing has suspended itself from the
UNFC, due to the rivalry of leadership position with the KIO and as well,
disagreement over the signing of the NCA.
The KNU played
a leading role of the signatory 8 EAOs, in signing the NCA in October 2015.
The UNFC,
which started out with 12 members now currently has 7 members, that includes
the KIO, the New Mon State Party (NMSP), the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), the Shan State
Progress Party (SSPP), and the Arakan National
Council (ANC), the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) and the WNO.
The UNFC's
bi-annual conference would likely seek to mobilize the EAOs' political common
position so as to increase bargaining power and could also be a last ditch
effort to breath fresh air in for the future survival of the umbrella
organization.
Other than
that, regarding the acceptance of new members into the UNFC, the government has
been viewing it with skepticism, as while the KIO would leave the UNFC, its
proxy Kachin National Organization (KNO) – an unarmed Kachin international
setup - would reenter the organization
as a member. The KIO is now member of the Wa or Pangkham-led FPNCC.
Government's
concern
The UNFC
maneuvering – especially the rumor of KIO's branching out in two ethnic
umbrella organizations - seems to irk the government's PC, as Zaw Htay spokesperson of state's counselor office told
the media that the government could not
accept such a development.
The KIO has
already decided that it would resign from the UNFC, but leaves its proxy the
KNO as a new member within the UNFC. At the earlier stage of UNFC formation, the KNO was about to apply for its membership
but somehow combined with the KIO and stands as one within the UNFC until
today.
Zaw Htay told
the media that in the wake of the UNFC's reorganization, he had sent Min Zaw
Oo, member of the PC's think-tank, to relay the basic government's position
that it only recognized the original 21 EAOs that are involved in the peace
process from the beginning and would only negotiate with them.
He stressed:
“If there will be more new members incorporated, that are not involved in the
NCA, in the UNFC, we won't be able to talk to it any more. UNFC is scheduled to
start on 20th June and we are relaying our message for them to
consider ahead of the meeting,” according to the 7 Day Daily report of June 17.
Latest insider
reports said that the on and off meeting between the UNFC's DPN and the
government's PC doesn't seem to progress
much from the “agreed in principle” posture, vague outcome. It was said that
the next meeting for the sixth time, on the UNFC's 9-point proposal on the
alteration of the NCA, would be in Yangon.
The UNFC's
proposal of first signing a Deed of Commitment (DoC) and continue spending time
to negotiate on Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD), before finally signing
the NCA, was rejected by the PC. The government's position is for the UNFC to
sign the NCA after reaching agreement on its 9-point proposal being included as
an appendix in the NCA.
Escalation of
war in Kachin State
In the
aftermath of the third UPC, the war in Kachin State escalated as the Burma Army
launched offensive in the Tanai, amber mining region. The KIA has been
expecting the Burma Army's offensive in the mining region, including Hpakant
Township, directly to the south, the epicenter of the country's lucrative jade
industry.
Following the
June 5 dropping of leaflets ordering the civilians' evacuation from the region
or else be considered being party to the KIO, the Burma Army closed off all
routes to Tanai town, as the June 15 deadline came into effect. It was said
that hundreds have taken refuge at churches and monasteries in Tanai town ever
since.
Meanwhile,
insider sources said that recently, Khin Zaw Oo of PC, on his way back from
Nepal, met General N'Ban La of KIO in Chaing Mai, where he was asked to convey
message to the Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing that the KIO wanted a direct
negotiation channel to talk about the ceasefire. The government side has
signaled to agree to the proposal and negotiation on it seems to be in
progress, although no details were forthcoming, as of this writing.
FPNCC
The FPNCC met
from June 15 to 19 in Panghsang, but no news from the meeting has come out in
the open yet. It was believed that the alliance might map out on how to deal
with the government and as well to find ways to satisfy the Chinese demand to
be more accommodating to the government's peace process initiative, which the
alliance couldn't agree without altering the present NCA.
For the moment
the government position is to stick on its NCA guidelines and negotiate
accordingly, with the tendency to hold talks with the FPNCC members separately,
which the latter insisted to only negotiate as a group together. To date, the
government's deliberation seems to be stagnant and not making any headway.
Recently,
Aung Soe, a member of the government’s Peace Commission and a lower house
lawmaker told the media that the
government “will meet three northern groups together [the TNLA, the AA, and
the MNDAA] and the rest separately.”
However, Tar Jode Jar, vice chairman of alliance
member the TNLA confirmed to the BBC on June 19 that the PC has asked the
Chinese to arrange for a meeting with the FPNCC and likely to take place after
June 20, in one of the town along the border in China. However, the meeting
protocol is still not clear, as the PC is insisting to meet the FPNCC
separately as before. And this might become a barrier even for the meeting to
take place.
Analysis
As the PC
shuttling to and fro to woo the UNFC's remaining members intensified, the
government's intention to get more EAOs sign up continues to be unpredictable.
As of now, the PC's offer that the UNFC's 9-point proposal to alter the NCA was
said to be stuck at the stage of agreeing to only include in the NCA's
appendix, in return for its members signing the NCA.
The UNFC headed
by the Khu Oo Reh was said to favor the signing of DoC first and take time to
iron out the FPD, before inking the NCA. The PC, however, was not so
enthusiastic on the UNFC's proposal and said to disagree to it.
The latest
development was that instead of signing the DoC, a joint-statement between the
DPN and PC would be in order, if the UNFC agrees to the solution of adding its
9-point proposal to the NCA as appendix. This would become clearer if they meet
again in July for the sixth time in Yangon. Furthermore, whether the UNFC would
remain a formidable organization, after the resignation of KIO and the unclear
posture of SSPP that is member of both the UNFC and also FPNCC, is an open
question that only time will be able to answer.
As for the
interaction between the FPNCC and the PC, both the alteration proposal of the
NCA and the mode of meeting between the two parties are still problematic, as
the former would only like to meet as a group, while the latter is keen to meet
the FPNCC members separately.
In view of the
recent Amnesty International negative report, titled “All The Civilians Suffer:
Conflict, Displacement, and Abuse in Northern Myanmar“, on human rights
violations in Kachin and Shan States by the government's troops; the on and off
armed engagement in Shan State between Burma Army and the Northern Alliance –
Burma (NA-B); and the escalating war in Kachin State, indicated that the
situation on the ground is still not favorable and conducive for the ongoing
peace process.
In sum, the
overall political and military situation have not changed in the aftermath of
the third UPC and could even be said as tilting towards more to the pessimistic
side. The contending parties also continue to be bogged down in micromanagement
of indulging in gaining political edge primarily on both sides of the political
spectrum, without coming to the stage of adjusting the common visionary concept
on how the country should be molded and bring forward the nation-building
process that hasn't even started in earnest, after nearly seven decades of
independence from the British.
Tags: Opinion
