SECOND 21st CENTURY PANGLONG: Pangkham, secession and one national army issues dominated the political landscape
The second Union Peace Conference - 21st Century Panglong
(UPC-21CP) was held by the National League for Democracy (NLD) government from
May 24 until 29, one day more than
according to the schedule. The first one was also convened by the same
regime in August-September in 2016.
Actually, the first peace conference that was then officially termed as
Union Peace Conference (UPC) was held by the former Thein Sein regime, in
January 2016, shortly before he left office, following the NLD's land-slide
election victory by the end of 2015 but only came into office in March 2016.
Thus, the recent May peace conference is the third of its kind, but taken as
the second one under the banner of the UPC – 21CP.
The difference between the first UPC-21CP and the second one is that
while the first one could be hardly called a conference, as it was just a
political position paper delivering forum where some 72 papers were read,
without discussion or assessment, the second one seek to lay down the
preliminary general principals on how the formation of a federal union should
be achieved.
The first UPC-21CP was attended by most 21 Ethnic Armed Organizations
(EAOs), with the exclusion of Kokang,
Ta'ang and Arakan armies, while the second one involved the said three under
the banner of the Pangkham alliance. But the United Nationalities Federal
Council (UNFC) that was there at the first conference chooses to stay away, due
to the assumption that it was being slighted and ignored on its 9-point
proposal to amend the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) to be a level
playing field by the government, in addition to being pushed either to sign the
Deeds of Commitment (DoC) first or the NCA at a later date or immediately.
Oddly enough, while the UNFC stayed away, the Pangkham alliance that
most didn't expect to be at the conference was suddenly there. Thanks to the
Chinese intervention on leadership level, with promise from its President Xi
Jinping to help Myanmar out of the peace deadlock, followed by the shuttle
diplomacy of Sun Guoxiang, the special envoy for Asian affairs of the Chinese
Foreign Ministry, between the Pangkham alliance, Suu Kyi and Min Aung Hlaing.
However, as expected earlier the Pangkham alliance only attended the
opening ceremony and later met the government's PC headed by Tin Myo Win, Suu
Kyi's top peace negotiator and later with Suu Kyi, including visiting her at
home for more trust-building and further communication, according to the
various news reports.
Reportedly, the alliance was said to have distributed its booklet to
journalist on “Amendment proposal of the nationwide ceasefire agreement
timeline between the Wa State and Myanmar Government” and also delivered its
separate position paper to Suu Kyi, on its proposed version of ceasefire
agreement, following the visit to her home.
Now let us have a closer look of what this second UPC-21CP has been able
to deliver or push us any further to the path of national reconciliation and
peace.
Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement and Pangkham alliance game plan
A new game plan initiated by the Pangkham alliance group involving 7
EAOs that rejects the government's NCA-based game plan has been in existence
for sometimes. But latest development now indicates the alliance might go along
if the government accepts alterations to the NCA. Reportedly, it produced a new
ceasefire proposal version concerning only military matters, unlike the present
NCA which is a mixture of both politics and military issues.
The Pangkham-led 7 EAOs military-political alliance includes the United
Wa State Party/Army (UWSP/UWSA), United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA),
Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA), Palaung State Liberation
Front/Ta’ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA), Myanmar National Truth and
Justice Party/Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNTJP/MNDAA), Peace
and Solidarity Committee/National Democratic Alliance Army (PSC/NDAA) and Shan
State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA).
Pangkham insisted that the NCA-based peace process is not working, as it
is unable to stop the war in Kachin and Shan States in the first place, besides
being a process aimed at replacing the Panglong Agreement of 1947, which the
alliance considers to be their historical-political legacy vested with rights
of self-determination, equality and democracy and also the sole legal bond, to
form a new political entity called the Union of Burma, between the ethnic nationalities
and the Bamar state prior to the independence from the British in 1948.
Thus, the Pangkham alliance consideration was originally to end the war
in the north of the country first, followed by political negotiation and
eventual political settlement. But this uncompromising attitude changed to the
demand for alteration of the NCA, when on May 25, the UWSA representative
delegation made known of its booklet “Amendment proposal of the nationwide
ceasefire agreement timeline between the Wa State and Myanmar Government”, dated April 30, 2017, to the media.
The booklet said that due to China's pressure the UWSA has changed its
stance to amend the NCA and requested the government and Tatmadaw accordingly.
It wrote China has been pressuring the Wa and Special Region 4 (Mong La)
repeatedly to sign the NCA. “In order to respond to the Chinese opinion and
demand, including considering the fact to guard and protect peace along
China-Myanmar border area, and to overcome the difficult peace process, after careful
consideration Wa State has changed its opinion of not wanting to sign (the
NCA),” according to report.
The booklet further said that although it has changed its position to
amend the NCA and tried to work out a solution with the Tatmadaw and government,
it was not successful, as the Tatmadaw finally made public that the NCA could
not be amended and would firmly stick to it.
“To find solution to the northern Myanmar armed conflict and tranquility
of Myanmar-China border area, Wa State would try its utmost to find answer
(solution) and would not easily start armed engagement,” according to the
booklet.
Commander-in-Chief, State Counselor and Mutu Say Poe opening speeches
In response to the stance of Pangkham alliance now officially named
Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC),
Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing made a remark on May 24 in his opening
speech. He said: “Ignoring this (NCA) and pursuing other or the second way will
be an attempt to loathe the establishment of a Union based on peace, democracy
and federalism. As such, we have to assume that the attempt is tantamount to
grabbing power and splitting from the Union through armed struggle line,”
according to recent report of the Global New Light of Myanmar.
He further stressed: “Studying 72 papers submitted at the previous
conference, we came to notice that the discussions, activities and basic
concepts of some ethnic groups are far beyond the federal system, which is the
right of autonomy. Such acts go against the desires and interest of the people
who have high expectations of the democracy cause and peace process. As an
institution responsible for protecting the interests of the State and the
people, the Tatmadaw has to face any organization committing destructive acts
in line with its responsibility.”
State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi's conciliatory tone, laced with
responsible attitude that all should follow, impressed many when she said in
her opening speech on May 25: “Almost everyone accepts that the resolution to
our country’s long-running armed conflicts is a federal system that is
acceptable to all. Our goal is therefore the “emergence of a democratic federal
union based on democracy and federalism”. Whether or not we will achieve this
goal rests in all of our hands. It is a responsibility that falls on all of our
shoulders. I do not think that any of us would wish to avoid, reject or shrink
away from this responsibility.”
“We will not resort to exerting pressure through populist politics, or
coercing others through political means to achieve our goals. We will
instead strive to
reach an agreement that is acceptable
to all, based on open, frank and inclusive dialogue,” she further stressed with
assurance.
The Karen National Union (KNU) leader Mutu Say
Poe pointed out the implementation flaws by saying: “[I]t is necessary to
create a situation free from any influences so that thorough negotiations can
be made. It will be difficult to get long-lasting peace if we do not have
sufficient preparation, exchange of news and information and satisfactory
discussions among respective organizations. Lastly, it is necessary to hold
political discussions depending upon race, place and matters. We think that
hastily-made political negotiations cannot help the national reconciliation and
it cannot solve any problems.”
“I want to stress that there are still other national ethnic armed
groups who are stakeholders in building up a future federal nation. We cannot
solve the problem covering the whole nation with only those who signed the
NCA,” he correctly pointed out.
Union Peace Conference - 21st
Century Panglong outcomes
Five major sectors of political, social, land and environment, economy
and security were said to be discussed.
It was said that political and security sectors didn't achieve desirable
result, although the other three resulted in agreement, according to news
reports.
Political sector discussion was said to be marred by the non-secession
issue, which the Tatmadaw insisted to include in the preliminary agreement as a
prohibition for the ethnic states to exercise secession.
The Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) was particularly
against it putting out statement saying: “In the pursuit of [the three national
causes] reconciliation among ethnic people, non-disintegration of the union and
perpetuation of the sovereignty, the sentence ‘Any unit of the Union must never
secede from the Union’ is not appropriate to put as one of the basic
principles,” said the SNLD statement.
“In building union, instead of having worries, doubts and fear as the
basis of the process, the SNLD believe that having mutual understanding,
respect and trust would be constructive for the process,” said the statement.
An EAO representative was said to have tabled a proposition, to break the
deadlock, that as long as rights of self-determination, equality, democracy and
federalism are practiced there would be no secession. But this was also shot
down, as the government-military group insisted upon the inclusion of the
non-secession clause by all means.
Regarding security sector, heated argument was said to have taken place
on even how the national defense force should be named, besides the major
argument debate over maintaining just one national army. According to
Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) representative, Sai Ngyin, negotiation
has been going on at this writing, on whether the national army should be named
“Tatmadaw”, as has always been called by the Military or “Federal Army”, as preferred by the EAOs,
reported SHAN on May 26.
Analysis
Summing up the recent gathering in Nay Pyi Taw, it could be said that it
still is not within the category of all-inclusiveness, as the 5 UNFC members
and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) were not
present. Besides, the 7 EAOs from Pangkham alliance were only there for the
opening ceremony of the conference and did not participated in the process in
the following days agendas.
But the positive development is that the government faction has
diversified the process by welcoming and meeting the Pangkham alliance under
its PC capacity and open up communication channel for further talks regarding
the alliance's wish on NCA amendment, so that it could also sign the agreement.
In a sense, this could be now viewed as an approach somewhat like what
the UNFC has been proposing all along. Thus it would now mean that the State
Counselor's PC team would negotiate with the Pangkham alliance and also with
the UNFC further for NCA alteration, and the groups' count outside the NCA
would remain the same as before.
The only remaining concern would be whether the government PC's and Suu
Kyi's welcome of the alliance, termed as a social visit, to Nay Pyi Taw could
be translated into the Tatmadaw's withdrawal of offensives in Kachin and Shan
States, to pave way for further negotiations.
If Min Aung Hlaing's mild threat in his opening speech “to face any
organization committing destructive acts in line with its responsibility” would
mean to apply to those not signing the NCA immediately, without alteration
proposal from the non-signatory EAOs being taken into account, war would likely
go on as usual. But if the Tatmadaw would be lenient and broad-minded, it would
refrain from doing so like in the recent past and give peace a chance, the war
in the country's north might as well quiet down.
As for the ambitious plan of the UPC-21CP, meaningful, preliminary,
general guideline for the formation of a federal union, it hasn't been able to
be achieved. The main two reasons being, as usual, the inability to be an
all-inclusive participation of all EAOs and the other, the incapacity to let
all the ethnic states and ethnic nationalities, even for the major dominant
ethnic groups like Kachin, Shan, Karenni, Mon and Arakan, according to its own
NCA guidelines, to hold political dialogue among their people.
The issue of all-inclusiveness which the government and Tatmadaw wanted
to treat as not important is, in fact, a major stumbling block.
According to the “Deciphering Myanmar’s Peace Process: A Reference Guide
2016” report publication of Burma News International, January 2017, the
combined 21 EAOs troops, when added together is 81,700.
The Pangkham alliance members UWSA has some 30,000; the KIA 12,000; SSPP
8000; TNLA 6000; NDAA 3000; MNDAA 2000; and AA 3000; totaling 64,000 or 78% of
the whole EAOs’ fighting force.
It is hard to imagine that it could achieve success by going about
issuing preliminary policy guidelines to achieve “Union Accord” with only 22%
EAOs' participation and the incapacity to conduct national-level (meaning
ethnic state-level) political dialogue to gather enough inputs from concerned
ethnic nationalities and also sub-national groups, according to its own NCA
rule.
All in all, the UPC-21CP is like the cart before the horse and it is all
because the crucially important all-inclusiveness norm is not heeded from the
beginning and the powers that be have been employing its ill-advised “open
door”strategy, to woo the non-signatory EAOs one after another. As all could
see since October 2015, not even one from the 13 non-signatory EAOs has joined
the fray, even with massive military pressures in Kachin and Shan States.
Regarding the achievement of the second UPC-21CP, the political and
security sector discussions have proven to be difficult and no compromised
agreement could be found between the representatives attending the conference.
However, on the final day of the conference 37
adopted principles out of 41, proposed by the Union Peace Dialogue Joint
Committee (UPDJC) and resulting from state and regional level political
dialogue, included 12 with the political sector, 11 with the economic sector, 4
with the social sector and 10 with the land and environment sector.
The 37 agreed principles, in accordance with the NCA, were signed by
leaders of participating groups of the government, parliament, military, 8 NCA-signatory EAOs and political parties,
which the UPDJC Chairperson Aung San Suu Kyi thanked by saying: “The signing of
today's agreements is a massive step in the realization of national reconciliation,
peace and democratic federal union.”
According to VOA report of May 28, it was said that the political
sector's “non-secession” issue; and security sector's “one national army” and
“Tatmadaw versus Federal Army” naming issues would be carried on to the next
UPC-21CP for further discussion, as no compromise and agreement could be made
among the government-military, EAOs and political parties.
In spite of all these, Suu Kyi's move to welcome the Pangkham alliance
is the positive approach and the way to go, which would even be better if this
could be extended to the UNFC, with necessary accommodation to its amendment
proposal of about a year ago.
The eventual amendment of the NCA according to the UNFC's nine-point
proposal, which includes genuine nationwide ceasefire announcement by the
Tatmadaw, real tripartite dialogue composition – government, parliament,
military; EAOs; and political parties; -
in all levels of the peace process and sincere promise to build a real
federal union, would definitely pave the way for eventual Pangkham alliance
involvement, reconciliation and national harmony that all have been longing for
decades.
Tags: Opinion
