UNFC and State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi's desperate move
She went on to
convey her gratitude by saying: “We want to specially say thanks to the five
UNFC members for the decision to sign the NCA, believing in our government and
our peace process.”
But this enthusiastic and upbeat statement is being abruptly cut short and contested as Nai Hong Sar NMSP leader, who is also the Vice-Chairman of the UNFC, said that there has been no concrete decision made as yet to sign the NCA as Suu Kyi has confidently depicted to be the case.
Nai Hong Sar said that before signing the NCA, the UNFC nine-point proposal, which the government side has said earlier that it is principally in agreement, has still to be discussed, ironed out and agreed upon officially first, to underline his point of argument and refuted Suu Kyi's conclusion that the five members from UNFC would sign the NCA, without reservation.
But this enthusiastic and upbeat statement is being abruptly cut short and contested as Nai Hong Sar NMSP leader, who is also the Vice-Chairman of the UNFC, said that there has been no concrete decision made as yet to sign the NCA as Suu Kyi has confidently depicted to be the case.
Nai Hong Sar said that before signing the NCA, the UNFC nine-point proposal, which the government side has said earlier that it is principally in agreement, has still to be discussed, ironed out and agreed upon officially first, to underline his point of argument and refuted Suu Kyi's conclusion that the five members from UNFC would sign the NCA, without reservation.
Other UNFC
members, such as KNPP and WNO also said that they were at a lost why Suu Kyi
said something like that without consultation with them and perhaps, she might
be misinformed by her own people.
However, Suu
Kyi' spokesman Zaw Htay said there is no reason to revoke Suu Kyi's statement,
as it is just a premature wishful expectation positioning because of the
unofficial news from several sources that he didn't wanted to name, including
the NMSP's spokesman Nai Win Hla.
Specifications
have been rife that the UNFC's five members are also desperate, if the two
strongest ethnic armies, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and the
Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), would really opt for Panghsang-led new peace
process approach not to sign the NCA and tread a new path, in dealing with the
government and its NCA-based peace process, their political survival will be in
jeopardy and thus have to jump ship before it is too late to act.
The UNFC's
political position for refusing to sign the NCA has been all along because
there is no all-inclusiveness of all EAOs in the peace process. But this
agreement among its members is now called into question, as the KIO and SSPP
have signed the Panghsang-initiated approach of not to sign the NCA and opted
for a new negotiation mode with the government.
The government
has insisted that the NCA has to be signed first, in order to be able to
participate in the UPC – 21CP.
Suu Kyi might have either taken the opportunity to push the situation for her advantage or just act out of desperation to portray that her administration is at long last achieving positive result where the peace process is fraud with stagnation, and especially on the eve of April 1 by-election for her party to be in good stead. Because many see that although the Suu Kyi-led, NLD government is keen to conduct the Union Peace Conference - 21st Century Panglong (UPC – 21CP) to be in an all-inclusive manner, the Military or Tatmadaw is totally against it and openly demonstrated with sidelining the the three Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) – Kokang or Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA), from the peace process and waging offensive wars in Kachin and Shan States to drive its message home that it is the party calling the shots, instead of toeing the NLD government's policy lead in ending the armed conflict through political negotiation.
The further
complication is that, since Suu Kyi is
powerless to rein in the Military and instead even has to dance to its
prescribed script role, at times blaming the EAOs for the armed conflict in the
north for collateral damage of civilian lives and targets, but saying virtually
nothing to the Military.
The government
and the Military is clinging to the NCA-based peace process as a sole way out
and until recently all the NCA-non-signatory EAOs, except for the United Wa
State Army (UWSA) and Mongla or National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), all
are fixed on amending the NCA to be more agreeable, in order they could signed
it and participate in the peace process.
But the
UWSA-led Panghsang alliance of seven EAOs came up with a new initiative to
disregard the NCA and seek to sign a new ceasefire pact, after which they would
negotiate with the government on how to achieve political settlement and peace.
Thus, the
government is faced with the same old dilemma of having to conduct the UPC –
21CP with just the signatory eight EAOs and the rest non-signatory thirteen
EAOs not participating in it. Of course, the so-called “open-door policy” of
wooing the non-signatories, to sign the NCA document at the convenience of
individual group's choice would continue to be the approach, which the NLD
regime's predecessor has also used it as a way out, for not being able to
create an atmosphere of all-inclusiveness.
Leaving aside
the newly initiated new game plan pushed by the Panghsang alliance in February,
the government would do well just to be practical by agreeing to the UNFC's
nine-point proposal, which would loosen up a lot of problems and even soften
backers of the new initiative approach
or Panghsang-led ethnic alliance of seven EAOs to come into the fold.
In a nutshell,
after agreeing that the UNFC would participate, review and decide on the
Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD), its nine-point proposal includes: nationwide
ceasefire declaration within 24 hours, followed by the UNFC troops doing
likewise within 48 hours; formation of an equal, genuine federal union based on
Panglong spirit; tripartite dialogue composition – government, Military,
parliament; EAOs; and political parties -
in all levels of the peace process; drawing up a constitution according
to the outcome of 21st Century Panglong Conference; allowing
international parties' participation to be able to jointly monitor and enforce
ceasefire agreement; and concerning big scale development plans to adhere to
the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), in cooperation with
the concerned public and the EAOs.
Outlook
It is
understandable that Suu Kyi is in such a haste and desperation to show the
people that her administration is achieving positive result. But it is an
illusion, given the war in the north of the country is still raging on and even
bringing on board of the five UNFC non-signatory EAOs, which only two has small
fighting forces and the rest with just token or no resistance fighters so to
speak, it wouldn't do much to end the physical fighting on the ground, much
less the peace process as a whole.
Just to have a
rough idea, the EAOs confronting the Tatmadaw in Kachin and Shan States are
made up of some two-third of the estimated 100,000 ethnic armed troopers.
The point is
in term of military conflict, the seven EAOs that have signed up to Panghsang's
initiative of new peace process approach, not based on the NCA signing as
desired by the government, are far more important to be on board, as they are
the bulk of the ethnic resistance troops delivering running battles in the
north of the country with the government's troops.
The simple
logic to the whole conflict nature is, as often advocated and solicited, the
end of internal armed conflict and participation of all EAOs in the peace
process. Anything less wouldn't be able to achieve a holistic political
settlement and national reconciliation.
As the
situation stands now, it is highly likely that the NCA-based peace conference
would go on, with the participation of eight EAOs that have already signed the
NCA in October 2015; and perhaps, with the inclusion of the small five UNFC
members that are poised to sign so that they would not to be left out of the
equation. But whether they will be able to secure affirmation to the UNFC's
nine-point proposal in the course of negotiation with the government is still
an open question.
At the same
time, the government-military establishment would continue to hold on to the
“open-door policy”, trying to woo the non-signatory EAOs, one by one. But
against this ploy, the Panghsang-led ethnic coalition is poised to bargain hard
politically and militarily in all settlement approach, where ethnic equality in
all aspect of political decision-making and resources sharing would have to be
ironed out.
In such a
situation, piecemeal solution, such as minor achievement of wining some more
small ethnic parties, desperate urging
and ad hoc for short term political gain, without accommodation to
create a level playing field, it is not going to do much to help propel the
achievement of real peace and reconciliation in a true sense.
Given the now
more convoluted peace process, with at least now two game plans tossed into the
political arena, the UNFC's nine-point proposal is still the best comprehensive
option and approach to jump-start the stalled process and pull out the country
out from this prevailing deadlock and inaction.
Tags: Opinion
