THE PLOT THICKENS: Wa-led ethnic armed organization leaders unveiled a new peace process game plan
The plot has thickened as the 21st Century Panglong Conference (21CPC),
acknowledged as the only game in town is being threatened into a situation to
accommodate another game plan headed by the Wa from their mini-state capital,
generally known as Panghsang but now changed to Pangkham.
The seven Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), United Wa State Party/Army (UWSP/UWSA), United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA), Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA), Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta'ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA), Myanmar National Truth and Justice Party/Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNTJP/MNDAA), Peace and Solidarity Committee/National Democratic Alliance Army (PSC/NDAA) and Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) held a meeting from February 22 to 24, with New Mon State Party (NMSP) and Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) absence, although the two sent in position papers to the gathering.
In
all thirty-seven delegates attended the meeting, including two specially
invited guests, from the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army
(KNU/KNLA) and Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA).
The ethnic leadership meeting, a third one of its kind came up with a call for a new approach rather than just following the government initiated 21st Century Panglong Conference based on Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), which the Wa initiated meeting opted to boycott or not to sign it unless a new compromised agreement could be agreed upon.
The
nine point statement of February 24, 2017 basically argued that in spite of NCA
deliberation, the armed conflict along the Burma-China border in Kachin and
Shan States have escalated with no sign of stopping, while on the eve of the
second 21st Century Panglong Conference the country is loaded with
difficulties and unresolved problems. Thus, the necessity to call for a three
day conference, leading to the following agreed statement, signed as the
“Ethnic Armed Revolutionary Leaders Third Meeting”.
1.
The ethnic armed revolutionary leaders attending the meeting commonly agreed on
the political definition of Wa State's (UWSP/UWSA) “Panglong Spirit” that is based
on its discussion paper, “Wa State's general principle and detailed demands”.
2.
To immediately withdraw the identification as terrorist groups on the MNDAA,
TNLA and KIA of December 7, 2016 by the Shan State Parliament that is against
the will of the people.
3.
To immediately stop all military offensives, in order the country to be
peaceful and start the reconciliation process.
4.
Implements the principle of all-inclusiveness to all armed revolutionary
organizations and urges equality-based modal negotiation. In pursuing to
achieve peace, resolving political problems, employing military means and
threatening attacks are rejected.
5.
Under the acceptance of “Wa State's general principle and detailed demands on
political negotiation”, formation of a political negotiation group, initiated
by Wa State, to negotiate with the Burmese government is being agreed.
6.
Depending on the development of the situation, the participants of the ethnic
revolutionary organizations would discuss and adjust the Wa State's general
principle and detailed demands and accept it as “general political principle
and detailed demands of the ethnic armed revolutionary organizations on
political negotiation”.
7.
The meeting participants of the ethnic armed resistance organizations are of
the opinion, regarding the NCA as follows:
(a)
The Burmese government aim to replace the historic Panglong Agreement with the
NCA could not accepted.
(b)
The meeting participants of the ethnic armed revolutionary organizations demand
that the NCA be replaced with a more justified ceasefire agreement.
8.
The meeting participants of the ethnic armed resistance organizations call on
the United Nations and People's Republic of China to look upon as arbitrator in Burma's peace process.
(a)
To urge for a new ceasefire agreement between the Burmese government and the
non-ceasefire ethnic armed organizations.
(b)
To urge for speedy realization political negotiation, leading to the formation
of a genuine federal union, based on the already signed different levels of
ceasefire agreements between the Burmese government and the ethnic armed
revolutionary organizations.
9.
Regarding capital investment and developmental projects, the opinion of ethnic
armed resistance organizations attending the meeting are:
(a)
China's One Belt One Road (OBOR) policy is peaceful equal development of all
neighboring countries. This policy is necessary for Burma's economic
development and security and as well benefits the arbitrator.
(b)
It is believed that China's OBOR policy could successfully be implemented
within Burma and beneficial for ethnic areas.
(c)
The ethnic armed resistance organizations agreed that security of the foreign
investments will be guaranteed. (Unofficial general translation from Burmese
text by this writer – February 27, 2017)
In
addition to the major call of the meeting statement on Panglong Spirit –
according to the Wa definition includes rights of self-determination, ethnic
equality and democracy - to be adhered, the dossier distributed to the invited
participants prior to the Wa initiated third meeting, dated January 15, 2017,
accused the Aung San Suu Kyi headed National league for Democracy (NLD) regime
as being ethnocentric like its predecessor Thein Sein government, toeing and
implementing the NCA line rigidly, which only benefits the Bamar ethnic group
at the expense of the non-Bamar ethnic nationalities.
Responses
to the Panghsang statement
One
top United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) leader, who is also the
vice-chairman of the NMSP told 7 Day Daily on February 26: “We just can't hold
on indefinitely only to NCA. There are quite a lot that have not sign the NCA.
It is important that all could participate. If we are to build peacefulness,
all ethnic armed revolutionary organizations need to be involved. For this we
need broad-mindedness and find ways.”
He further said that he didn't like to give opinion on Panghsang statement for the time being. NMSP did not attend the meeting but sent in its position paper.
On
February 25, according to Mizzima, UNFC general secretary Khu Oo Reh said:
“Concerning UNFC, there will be no changes and would continue as originally
planned.”
The
UNFC is scheduled to meet the State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi on March 1 to
discuss policy matters, which is likely to be ironing out its nine point
proposal to be able to sign the NCA.
Regarding
the Panghsang statement Shan nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) general
secretary, Sai Nyunt Lwin according to Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) February
25 report said: “I think they are looking for a new approach. The government
side, especially the Tatmadaw, would not be able to accept it. But the good
thing is that this search for a new approach would still go back on negotiation
track. As it is (the statement) is not abandoning the negotiation, I am not
sure whether we could welcome it or not. I think we should look into this
approach. One thing that irked me is that probably Chinese influence seems be a
little bit too much in it.”
The same DVB report wrote that presidential spokesman Zaw
Htay said: “I believe that it is (the statement) not following the 21st
Century Panglong line. It is directly contradicting it. We are moving
accordingly to the commonly agreed tripartite dialogue – government,
parliament, military; EAOs; and political parties, which will go if needed up
to the constitutional amendment.”
When asked if the planned March 1 meeting between the State
Counselor and the UNFC could be affected because of the Panghsang meeting, as
UNFC key players are involved in it, he replied that it won't be affected and
that the meeting would take place as scheduled to discuss policy matters.
Perspective
Following the Panghsang meeting and statement a lot of
questions are stirred up such as,
whether the UNFC would follow the UWSA lead and opt for a new approach
in going about the peace negotiation process; if China with its self-projected
neutral mediator stance going to go so far as to persuade the Tatmadaw and
government make concession for another ceasefire deal on behalf of Panghsang
that doesn't need to go through NCA signing; and whether
the UNFC's nine point proposal be considered by the government and Tatmadaw
positively.
For now, the UNFC
members would need to digest the Panghsang meeting outcomes and thrash out any
misunderstanding among themselves that might arise on how to position itself in
the choice of whether to go on pursuing the NCA line or opt for a new approach
as prescribed by the latest ethnic leadership meeting, in Panghsang.
Regarding China, it
might be in a bit of awkward position, as it only wants to be an active neutral
mediator, where its main concern is its national interest tied closely to its
economic scheme and keeping Burma as a political entity out of the Western
orbit, actions which would seem openly taking sides with the armed ethnic
groups could jeopardize it interest on Burma as a whole. Still, it would be
interesting to see how China would react to this Panghsang's initiative as
becoming an important arbitrator, in collaboration with the United Nations in
Burma's peace process undertakings.
Now that the new game plan or
alternative way out of the NCA deadlock is being proposed, the government and
Tatmadaw are faced with a choice to either agree to the UNFC nine point
proposal, so that its members would join the NCA fold or rejecting it and push
the UNFC further into the arms of Panghsang initiated approach, which calls for
a new set of ceasefire agreement without having to sign the NCA, leading to the
participation in the peace process.
As it is, all is now open to
speculation and until the March 1 scheduled meeting between the State Counselor
and the UNFC that is to take place and the amount of compromised outcomes that
would follow and made publicly known, all will be left to be indulged in a
guessing game, whether we like it or not.
Tags: Opinion
