STAKEHOLDERS BUSY WITH POLITICAL MANEUVERING AS PANGLONG CONFERENCE NEARS: The questions of political will and trust-building
As renewed heavy fighting erupted since almost one month ago, between
the Kokang or Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Burma
Army or Tatmadaw in the Kokang Self-Administered Zone, in addition to the on
and off skirmishes with members of the Northern Alliance-Burma (NAB), the Chinese Ambassador to Burma, Hong Liang
urged all the other non-signatory Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) to sign the
Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), so that the war along the Burma-China
border could be stopped and normalcy returned.
NAB is an ethnic military alliance made up of Arakan Army (AA), Kachin
Independence Army (KIA), MNDAA and Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA),
which has unleashed a counter-offensive on November 20 last year, in Muse
Township, northern Shan State, that took the Tatmadaw by surprise. While the
alliance has now withdrawn its offensive, saying that it was just a “limited
strike” to show its military capability and send the Tatmadaw a strong message
that they are a force to be reckoned with, the fallout from the conflict
lingers on with sporadic skirmishes taking place until today.
China wants ethnic armed groups in northern Burma to sign the Nationwide
Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in order to ease fighting near the Sino-Burma border,
China’s ambassador to Burma said in an interview with the state-run New Light
of Myanmar on February 12.
“By signing the NCA, battles can be avoided and there can be guarantees
for peace and stability along the China-Myanmar border,” Ambassador Hong Liang
recently told the state-run New Light of
Myanmar, adding that in order to stop the conflict, “respective parties need to
be well convinced of each other.”
Against this backdrop, stakeholders are busy maneuvering or fine tuning
their political footwork so that the unfolding scenario would work to their
benefit, each in its own way.
Lately, important development that should be taken into account are the
Kachin-Karen Laiza Joint Statement, Wa's non-signatory ethnic leadership
gathering, State Counselor-United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC)
scheduled meeting, and the Chinese involvement in the peace process.
KIO-KNU Joint Statement
Another extraordinary occurrence that happened was that the Kachin
Independence Organization (KIO) and Karen National Union (KNU) meeting in
Laiza, the Kachin headquarters, and the release of a joint statement,
pinpointing some paragraphs from the “Deeds of Commitment” signed during the
tenure of ex-President Thein Sein, that armed engagement wouldn't be used to
settle political disagreement.
The Kachin and Karen seven point joint statement
of February 16 pointed out the need to adhere to the peaceful negotiation,
all-inclusiveness and rejection of the Tatmadaw calling the KIO and NAB as
below:
·
Article
No. 3 of the Deed of Commitment signed
on 12 February 2015, by the KNU, Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), Karen National Union/Karen National
Liberation Army Peace - Council
(KNU/KNLA-PC) and the Government
of Myanmar, the Tatmadaw (Defense Services), the Union
Parliament, 19 State/Regional Ethnic Affairs Ministers and
55 political parties,
committed to not use force
to resolve political problems but resolve political problems through
political means.
·
Article
5 of the Deed further committed the signatories to not engage in armed conflict
or engage in
matters that can
disrupt the peace
process during the period
peace negotiations are taking place.
·
Chapter 1
(g) of the
Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (signed on
15 October 2015) is committed “To convene
political dialogues with all
relevant participants based on
ethnic peoples’ desires and wishes towards long lasting peace.”
·
(We)
further urge that until peace is achieved, all ethnic armed organizations
engaged in the peace process, not be considered terrorists but rather as
partners in the search for peace.
Two advisers from Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) were also
present at the meeting.
It was remarkable, as the KNU leader Mutu Say Poe has been at odd with
KIO leadership after its signing of the NCA, together with other seven EAOs that
later lead to the suspension of the KNU membership on its own initiative from
the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), which it has been a part, when
it was formed in February 16, 2011.
Before that speculation were rife that the KNU delegation lobbied
Chinese authorities to pressure the KIO into signing the nationwide ceasefire
agreement (NCA), according to a source close to the KNU. But the KIO-KNU seven
point joint statement dispelled such speculation, as the KNU was in fact
agreeing to the UNFC nine point proposal saying that it would make the existing
NCA stronger.
According
to Myanmar Times, the KNU
official Padoh Saw Ta Doh Moo said, “Though we have signed the NCA earlier, it
would be good to have the nine point proposal by UNFC because it would
strengthen the ceasefire than now it is.”
Prior to the meeting and making the joint statement public with the KIO,
the KNU leader was said to have met the Chinese authorities at their invitation
in Kunming.
China's role
The active Chinese role in Burma's peace process
is indisputable, since the Kokang conflict erupted in February 2015, when Pheung
Kya-shin's MNDAA troops tried to wrestle back the power of Kokang Self-Administrative Zone from the
Burma Army's installed administration. The conflict produced thousands of
refugees fleeing to China and also caused deaths and wounded to some Chinese
citizens by stray bullets and artillery from the Burma Army. The Chinese
reacted strongly to the point that it even pulled out a massive military, live
ammunition, exercise for a few days at the border to shock and awe the
perpetrators.
But since then, China has quietly corrected and
calibrated its policy of non-interference, its shock and awe approach in the
case of Kokang conflict, to an approach of “creative involvement”.
Recently, Chinese authorities have invited the
KNU leader Mutu Say Poe to Kunming, where the parties should have discussed
matters relating the upcoming peace conference. The meeting that followed
between the KIO and KNU also touched on the same theme, as the joint statement
that came out shortly after indicated.
Apart from that, reportedly, China's special
envoy for Burma would also meet the UNFC on February 25, in Chiang Mai
Thailand, following the UWSA initiated EAOs leadership meeting, after which a
scheduled meeting between the State Counselor and the UNFC would take place
sometime within early March.
UWSA meeting
Meanwhile, the United Wa State Army (UWSA)
planned EAOs leadership meeting just started on February 21 and is said to go
on until 23, where the UNFC and as well the NAB are invited for the gathering.
The meeting is believed to map out on how to deal with the upcoming second 21st
Century Panglong Conference.
In May and November last year, the UWSA
organized two summits among ethnic leaders in Panghsang to strengthen
coordination and team building. Again in March, UWSA hosted another
coordination meeting between the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and
Shan State Army - South (SSA-S) over their territorial dispute.
According to Ms Yun Sun, a well known analysis
on Burma-China relation, China backs UWSA efforts to enhance its leadership
role among ethnic groups, hoping that the group could emerge as a centripetal
force to rein in and manage various ethnic minorities.
Aung San Suu Kyi and UNFC meet
After weeks of negotiation, State Counselor Aung
San Suu Kyi sent official invitation to meet the UNFC at its request, according
to Zaw Htay spokesperson for the presidential office in March.
Tun Zaw, UNFC joint secretary confirmed that the
meeting is fixed for March 1 and already confirmed by the government side,
according to the report of RFA in its February 20 report.
The 21st Century Panglong Conference
(21CPC) was said to be rescheduled although the exact date could still cannot
be determined, as the KNU would be holding its Congress to elect its new
leadership every four years, apart from the national-level political dialogue
to be held in Chin State still under preparation and Arakan State also pressing
to be allowed to do the same.
According Frontier Myanmar recent February 20
report, Zaw Htay said the union conference or 21CPC would be delayed until the
end of March, meaning it would be sometime in April.
Regarding the UNFC, it is only interested to
discuss policy matters and push through its 9 point proposal to be incorporated
into the NCA so that it could sign it and participate in the 21CPC. It has made
itself clear that it is not interested to attend the conference either as
observer or any status that would be lower than the fully-fledged participants.
Outlook and perspective
There is no doubt that politicking or political
maneuvering footwork are intensely going on among the stakeholders as 21CPC is
geared to restart soon.
But let us ponder a bit more to see what different
stakeholders would likely be having in their mind.
·
The
State Counselor would like to push through her rigid time-frame agendas and
driving hard to be able to include all non-signatory EAOs;
·
China is
also flexing its muscles to indicate that it is now ready to upgrade its
sympathetic, supporting bystander stance to become a co-player, if not as an
authority for a new set of game;
·
The
Tatmadaw is enduring bad press and tarnishing more than ever its own image by
committing gross human rights violations in Arakan State and armed conflict
ridden Kachin and Shan States, and at the same time, not knowing how to go
about on whether to accommodate democratization further or put a stop to it, so
that it could continue to maintain its political edge;
·
The UNFC
is trying to push through its nine point proposed agenda, in order to be able
to achieve a level playing field so that it may not be handicapped in peace
negotiation process;
·
The
UWSA, together with the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), are worried
that if the UNFC could make a deal and enter the 21CPC, they will be left out
and won't be able to further their aspirations of upgrading their
administrative statuses; and
·
The NAB
primary is worried that its members would be left out from the peace dialogue
process and would continue to be targeted by further military onslaught.
While it might seem that accommodating such a
variety of wish list and aspirations could be really daunting and a mammoth
task, all the stakeholders or parties do have one thing in common, which is the
absence of war and achievement of peace that would foster reconciliation and
political settlement, followed by much needed development in all socioeconomic
sectors.
To be able to do this, as time and again been
advocated, all parties concerned must first have an unwavering “political will”
buttressing it with “trust-building”, a term frequently used by all contenders
but rarely put into practice.
As such, the best place to start the realization
of political will, which is the achievement of “peace”, would need to create an
atmosphere of “trust”. In turn, in order to be trustworthy an act of “trust
stimulation” is needed. And this is none other than to stop the war of
offensive initiated by the Tatmadaw first and foremost.
If this could be pulled through by the Tatmadaw
in good faith, all the rest would eventually fall into line. In other words,
the earnest peace process negotiation within the mold of 21CPC could follow,
which until today is still in a limbo. Otherwise, we all will continue to be
bogged down in the vicious circle of violence and disagreement unable to
resolve our differences as civilized human beings should be doing.
Tags: Opinion
