Day Eight. Saturday, 16 December 2016

Rohingya insurgency in Burma is a “game changer”, says ICG. The attackers on 9 October are Saudi-backed Harakah al-Yaqin (“Faith Movement”) that recruits and trains fighters in Bangladesh and northern Rakhine.

(AFP, 15 December 2016)

Today, I’m back in Rangoon, back at the Green Hill Hotel and back to work with my other friends. And here are some of the things I have learned from them:

·         The relationship between the State Counselor and the CinC is in need of patching up. But as yet there’s no one to bell the cat (to be sure, two cats). According to a lieutenant general, the target deadline for the peace process may be 3-5 years, but supporting another tenure for The Lady has become untenable. This has in turned adversely affected the peace efforts.

·         Still there’s no denying the two are dependent on each other, particularly the military. “As far as the generals are concerned,” says one, “she’s their #1 laundrywoman. They’re also crushing and grinding her like a sugarcane handmill for the last drop of the juice.”

·         There is also an unconfirmed report the generals were terrified when Professor Weller, the resource person at the three-day workshop on federalism, suggested constitutions for states and regions. “Maybe they may accept other options,” comments one. “Like calling them regulations or acts instead of constitutions like the British did, or packaging them all in the union constitution.”

·         As for the non-signatories, the Lady is trying to get the non-signatories back on board by inviting those who were in the Burmese delegation to South Africa in October, to attend a soon to be held review meeting in Naypyitaw, according to a report. Another report, unconfirmed, also says one of the Kachin strongholds, Gidon, has fallen today, following saturation bombings for months.

If it’s true, the whole negotiation process between the non-signatories, especially the UNFC, and the government is at stake. Will there be another 5 month hiatus like it did in 2014, after the negotiations broke down in August? Of course, nobody can tell. Especially not me.