Pessimism rules as Commander-in-Chief aired his hard-line stance on ethnic armies
President
Htin Kyaw's key message was unity and the importance of the forthcoming 21st
Century Panglong, that should lead to national reconciliation and achievement
of peace.
He
said: “If the history is any indication, it will be found that the country
always enjoyed enormous benefits whenever the countrymen were united. An
obvious example was the signing of the Panglong Pact in 1947. The Panglong Pact
was a symbol of the unity of all indigenous races, and attainment of Myanmar
independence could be attributed to this unity.”
“It
is common knowledge that now again, effort is being put forth commencing from
the 21st century Panglong conference to be able to establish a democratic,
federal union which the indigenous people are desirous of. As the building of a
democratic country or a democratic system can meet with success only through
the participation of the majority of people, I would like to urge the entire
mass of people in the country to join us with full democratic spirit and unity
in building up a democratic, federal union,” he further stressed.
While
the President Htin Kyaw's speech might be seen as mobilizing the mass and
giving importance to the spirit of unity anchored in the Panglong Agreement of
1947, the Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing was spelling out the military or
Tatmadaw's hard-line stance, in relation to the peace process.
Min
Aung Hlaing reiterated the Tatmadaw's coalition, although short of committing
that it is taking orders from the civilian government, and cooperation as: “Now,
the New Year 2017 comes in after the year 2016 has come out. The Tatmadaw
passed significant events in all along the 2016. For the first point, the
Tatmadaw participated in carrying out the work processes in the time of the
government led by the National League for Democracy which won the election.”
His
usage of the sensitive terms that spelled out its hard-line stance could be
seen in part of his short speech, when he stressed: “Because of the armed
ethnic insurgent-terrorists, some areas of Kachin State, northeast area of Shan State and
northern area of Rakhine State were faced with deterioration of peace and
stability, harming life and property of the people, which the Tatmadaw has made
utmost efforts for restoring peace and stability by sacrificing lots of lives,
blood and sweat.”
The Tatmadaw's motion
of labeling of the Northern Alliance – Burma (NA-B) members as “terrorist
organizations” was endorsed in Shan State parliament on 7 December, where the
military bloc has the majority seats, which earlier was rejected in the union
parliament, during the session on 2 December.
Again,
strangely enough, in his new year speech, he started mentioning the vocabulary
of “federal union”, which the Tatmadaw has all along to refused to use. He
said: “In the 2017 also, the Tatmadaw will continue cooperation in ensuring
peace and stability of the State, undertaking development and emergence of the
Union based on democracy and federal system. I request the entire ethnic people
to make cooperation in all tasks.”
Even
then, the indication on the ground is clear enough as to what the Military is
planning and where it is heading to, as the offensives on Kachin Independence
Army (KIA), that drove its troops from strategic mountaintop base of Gidon on
17 December and Lai Hpawng outpost near the Kachin fighters’ Laiza headquarters
fell to the Tatmadaw on 28 December, unmistakably pointed out its war path
commitment, rather than negotiation.
The
KIA has been locked in a protracted conflict with the Military that began in 2011
and the recent heightened offensives on its positions have been ongoing since
some four months. In order to counter and take away the heat of the Tatmadaw's
onslaught, the KIA together with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army
(MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA), dubbed as
the Northern Alliance - Burma (NA-B), conducted a counter-offensive, banking on
the strategy of “The best defensive is the offensive”, in Muse Township,
northern Shan State on 20 November. This had angered the Tatmadaw and possibly
pushed it to sacrifice the large amount of human toll and financial cost to
overrun the KIA bases, that was said to be calculated in millions of dollars,
by independent observers.
Although
the KIA has termed the counter-offensive as a limited war and has since
withdrawn the operation after a few weeks, the fallout from it continues to
simmers on with armed clashes occurring on a daily basis in northern Shan State
until today.
For
Suu Kyi, as if it was not enough fighting an uphill battle against
international opinion regarding the Rohingya problematic, on the eve of the
noble prize laureates of eleven petitioning to look into the human rights
violations in Arakan State to the United Nation's Security Council, added accusation
surfaced that the National League for Democracy (NLD) didn't even have a
program, as a national party an appropriate position paper on federalism, which
it vowed to establish.
On
29 December, Oo Hla Saw, an outspoken Lower House lawmaker representing
Arakan State’s Mrauk U, an Arakan
National Party (ANP) Central Executive Committee member (CEC), told The
Irrawaddy of his frustration on the government's inability to deliver.
He said: “The government has publicly said that it would build
a federal democratic Union, but we can’t even feel the slightest essence of
federalism, and ethnic groups are frustrated with the central government. There
are big problems and big challenges.”
“Frankly
speaking, the NLD-dominated parliament has not thought about federalism in
advance. They should have [developed] moderate thoughts in advance about how
they Bamars could co-exist amicably with ethnicities, what models of federalism
could be built, and what concessions they could make,” he stressed pointedly.
He
further buttressed his opinion, which is not far from reality as: “And the army
does not seem to think about it. It even says that the 2008 Constitution
already provides a federal union. And I believe that there is no theory
teaching about federalism in the NLD. I think that NLD CEC members have zero
knowledge about federalism.”
Analysis
Summing
up, the Commander-in-Chief new year message is not at all encouraging to
advance the peace negotiation process, while President Htin Kyaw's speech is
somewhat soothing, it failed to address the ongoing peace process in any
concrete term, especially on how to end the raging armed conflict initiated by
the Tatmadaw in the Shan and Kachin States, plus any durable theoretical
solution to the communal conflict in Arakan State that is threatening to blow
out of proportion. And capping all these woes and problems is the lack NLD's
party programme or position paper regarding the constitutional crisis. In other
words, its party's take and lack of it on federalism or formation of a federal
union governance system.
The
Tatmadaw is bent on keeping its self-drawn, 2008 constitution in tact and is
determined to pull through its “negotiated surrender” stance vis a vis the
Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), together with its disarmament,
demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) implementation, which the EAOs see it
as akin to negotiated surrender.
The
government position seems to be to go along with the Tatmadaw's policy
implementation, even though it failed to spell out transparently in official
manner, Nai Han Thar, the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) leader in
it recent interview of 29 December, in Kachin News Group said that the NLD was
just the follower of the Tatmadaw. He used the word “Nauk Mee Swear” in
Burmese, which literally means “lackey”.
He
even pointed out that Suu Kyi was taking sides with the Tatmadaw on the recent
conflict in the northern part of the country between the Tatmadaw and the NA-B,
which was uncalled for and also inappropriate, considering the fact that the
ethnic groups have put the hope on her as a credible mediator between the
warring parties.
Suu
Kyi was blaming the NA-B, which has launched the counter-offensive on 20
November, while she was praising the Tatmadaw on the recent armed conflict.
On
top of this, there is the lack of position paper or party program on federalism
that contributes to the lack of targeted political negotiation progress, after
some five years of starting it.
NLD,
that considers itself a national party, cross-cutting the ethnic lines, should
have in its basic party programme the federal union formation proposal, which
it would also make use of in political give-and-take. It is in no way an
appropriate stance to just excuse itself by saying that it will wait for the
collective decision-making outcome, on how the future system of governance
would look like, even if it is the ruling party of the government in power.
It
should be noted that in a matured democracy, “Party programmes
fulfill different functions. The basic party programme constitutes the identity
of the party and offers a general orientation to the citizens and voters on the
guiding principles and ideas of a party. With its programme, the party
justifies its existence and explains how it differentiates itself from others.
The party programme illustrates the political ambition and basic values,
demands and suggestions of a party,” according to a booklet titled, “Political
Parties Functions and Organisation in Democratic Societies”, written by Wilhelm
Hofmeister and Karsten Grabow.
If the UNFC, United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) and even the
Tatmadaw have more or less their position papers or programme on federalism in
place, it is only normal and appropriate for the the NLD also to own one. After
all, NLD is also part of the political party cluster that has to participate in
the peace process, not a referee or overseer of the political dialogue process.
Having said that, the Tatmadaw's preconceived position of
negotiated surrender of the EAOs or nothing, plus its self-appointed protector
of the nation's sovereignty; and the NLD government's lack of basic party
programme on federalism wouldn't lead to the fruitful achievement of peace and
reconciliation, which is intended to be thrashed out at the forthcoming Union
Peace Conference - 21st Century Panglong. Like it or not, for now, only pessimism is in the air.
Tags: Opinion
