CONFLICT IN SHAN STATE: Aftermath of Northern Alliance offensives
While the NA-B reasoned that it has to take such
actions because it has no other choice to demonstrate its frustration and dire
political side-lining of the Tatmadaw, with head of the National League for
Democracy (NLD) regime Aung San Suu Kyi, perhaps reluctantly endorsing its
hard-line position vis a vis the three excluded Ethnic Armed Organizations
(EAOs), namely the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang
National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA).
To many, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
joining the so-called NA-B might be a puzzle, as it is not excluded from the
peace process, even though it has not sign any state or union-level ceasefire
agreement, including the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).
But the point and reason for the KIA forming the
NA-B together with the three excluded EAOs is that it has been militarily
pressured and has to endure the massive onslaught for three months in a row,
since the end of the first 21st Century Panglong Conference, which
the KIA also attended.
The Tatmadaw's military pressure has been, no
doubt, to push for the KIA to sign the NCA. The NA-B offensive, on the other
hand, is primarily aimed at taking the heat away from the Tatmadaw offensives
on the KIA, apart from showing displeasure of Tatmadaw's exclusion policy on
the three excluded EAOs, hoping perhaps that the Tatmadaw might rethink its
rigid stance and make accommodation for participation in the peace process.
The NCA has been subjected to discussion for the
time being at the insistence of the United Nationalities Federal Council
(UNFC), a seven party military alliance, also headed by the KIA, to incorporate
its 8 point proposal, which includes declaration of bilateral nationwide ceasefire between the Tatmadaw and
the EAOs; tripartite dialogue composition in all levels of peace process
negotiations, as decades-long endorsed by the U.N.; commitment to the
structuring of a genuine federal, democratic union and most importantly,
all-inclusiveness of all EAOs – not written as a point in the proposal, but
nevertheless, its main point of refusal to sign the NCA last year in October.
The government Peace Commission (PC) has even
highlighted this point to accuse the UNFC that its refusal of not signing the
NCA, due to lack of all-inclusiveness of all EAOs in the peace process might be
just a pretext to delay the signing. The UNFC has yet to come up with a
clarification to this accusation.
Recent situation
The recent situation after more than a week was
said to dissipate and the government in control of the Kutkai-Muse road. But
rebel sources said the clashes are ongoing and don't seem to end anytime soon.
According
to Myanmar times of 28 November, Colonel Mong Aik Kyaw, a spokesperson for the
NA-B, fighting continued, with clashes in at least five different locations
including Mong Koe, Pang Sai and the 105 Mile border trade zone.
Rebel
sources also reported that they have seized most
of Mong Ko, a border town in northern Shan State, but the Burma Army retained
control of a nearby hilltop base as fighting continued on 28 November.
The Irrawaddy
also reported that the ethnic armed groups took control of the Mong Ko border
gate, the immigration zone, and most areas of the town. Then they launched an
offensive against Burma Army troops in the area, according to the joint ethnic
armed groups’ spokesperson, Tar Aike Kyaw.
As of the 28
November morning, they had captured several Burma Army positions in the town.
“Already, the town of Mong Ko has fallen into the
hands of the joint ethnic armed groups,” Tar Aike Kyaw told the Irrawaddy.
The Burma Army has suffered a high number of
casualties, and the ethnic armed groups were able to seize many weapons,
according to a video posted on Facebook by NA-B.
Thus, while the Burma Army is eager to promote
the situation as under control, the war is likely to go on for a while, as it
is also said to be trying to solve the problem militarily and also negotiation.
According to general secretary Khin
Zaw Oo of the government’s Peace Commission, during the Peace Forum held at
Inya Lake Hotel in Yangon, on 25 November, ongoing conflicts in northern Shan
State have been approached not only via military power but also through
negotiations. He was addressing the forum on the issue of achieving a total
ceasefire and nationwide peace.
Call for intervention and military
reinforcement
The NA-B has called for the Chinese
intervention, in its 7 point statement of 25 November stating: “In order to
reach durable, stable and genuine political negotiation (process), China, which
is sharing border (with Burma), is requested to mediate on the basis of
equality.”
The statement further thanked the United Wa State Army (UWSA) for its timely statement to be a mediator to end the armed conflict.
According to Myanmar Times, following
a “2+2” meeting of members of the ministries of foreign affairs and defense
with their Chinese counterparts on November 25
in Naypyitaw, the two sides released a joint statement addressing the recent
uptick in conflict along the border.
“Both sides expressed their desire for the
prevalence of rule of law and security along
Burma‐China borders, and the Chinese side expressed its hope for speedy
solution of current tension in the northern part of Myanmar and to restore
normalcy in the border areas as early as possible,” it read.
The Joint Strategy Team has urged all “warring
parties to fully respect international humanitarian law, which provides
specific measures to protect civilians in armed conflicts”.
The team continued, “An immediate cessation of
hostilities must take place. A peaceful solution to the conflicts in Myanmar is
a critical priority for the future of the country and its people. This should
be based in open political dialogues that address the long‐standing issues
which are at the origin of this conflict.”
“The Tatmadaw is reinforcing its
military strength and the Chinese military is also drilling along its side of
the border,” Sai Loon Nao told Shan Herald. “The fighting is going to continue
although the situation is calm in town.”
Following intensified hostilities
between Burmese government forces and ethnic armed groups in northern Shan State, the Chinese
military has beefed up its manpower and munitions along the border, according
to local sources.
Sai Bee, a resident in Muse Township who fled
across the border to the Chinese town of Shweli to escape the recent fighting,
also told Shan Herald that he saw tanks and more than 200 military
trucks full of soldiers arriving at the China‐Burma border on Saturday.
“More than 200 military trucks, tanks and heavy
weapons, including machine guns, came in with the troops and they are now
positioned near the border,” he said. “It has been reported that they have been
sent in to protect the border area, but we do not know what is going to happen
next.”
According to Ko Aung Aung who is also a resident
in Muse, at least ten Burmese military trucks with troops and weapons from
Lashio were on Friday heading to the volatile areas of 105‐Mile, Parng Zai and
Mong Koe in Muse District.
Now let us look at what some of the crucial
actors are saying.
Aung San Suu Kyi
Aung San Suu Kyi's announcement of 23
November regarding the armed conflict in northern Shan State seems to be
blaming the NA-B and endorsing the Tatmadaw.
Buttressing the blame on the NA-B,
the announcement said: “At a time when people of Myanmar are in process of
striving for national reconciliation and peace that had remained elusive to
them in the past, it is extremely disappointing and saddening that these
incidents are instigated. Our sympathies and condolences are with victims who
had lost their lives and who are wounded. Mining of bridges and attacks on
border outposts by these armed groups also cut-off flow of trade, transport and
communication are detrimentally affecting the socio-economic lives of civilian
population in the area.”
To reiterate her call for the signing
of NCA and praising the Tatmadaw, the announcement wrote: “Despite these
incidents, the Government is keeping the peace door open to welcome all
relevant stakeholders for participation in the peace process. To this end, the
Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) is needed to be signed to end all
conflicts. The contribute to this process stability and normalization must
return to the State State. The government is striving its utmost to return the
situation to normalcy. The valiant effort of the Tatmadaw and security forces
has resulted in stabilizing a certain degree of stability in the Northeast Shan
State.”
Min Aung Hlaing
Meanwhile, Commander-in-Chief Min
Aung Hlaing, intentionally or unintentionally raised the question of a potential military takeover of the country,
amid an ongoing military conflict in northern Shan State and threats from
Muslim militants in the west Burma.
During the month of November alone he mentioned
twice the clause in Burma’s 2008 Constitution—which was also drafted by the
military—that allows the military to stage a coup in the event of chaos and
instability. Besides, the Constitution also reserves 25 percent of the seats in
Parliament for military representatives.
Recently, on 26 November, the Global New Light of
Myanmar reported that the military chief
pointed out to the senior military
officers in his speech at the National Defense University that provisions for
emergency situations are included in the Constitution of Myanmar, 2008 and
members of the Defense Services are required to learn the situations on the
ground and to work in the interest of ethnic people.
When he was visiting Brussels earlier
this month, to attend the European Union Military Committee (EUMC) for the
first time on 9 November, the senior general also defended the 2008
Military-drafted Constitution, which allows for the participation of defense
services in national politics. He praised the Constitution for restricting, in
a state of emergency, the military from remaining in power too long, and
requiring them to act in accordance with the President’s approval.
Nai Han Tha
Regarding the NA-B offensive, the
UNFC leader Nai Han Thar when asked by the Democratic Voice of Burma on how his
organization would handle the situation, replied: “The Kachin, Palaung, Arakan
and Kokang combined resistance is in reality trying to destroy (counter) the
(Tatmadaw's) offensive with a new pattern of approach. The government has been
conducting offensive for three months now and if only defensive mode is
employed, we will be hurt. By maneuvering outside, the government troops have
to take security measures of their areas, which the alliance believes would
lessen their offensives.”
Earlier, an NCA signatory ethnic
leader also commented that the NA-B might be employing “offensive is the best
defensive” strategy, to counter the prolonged attacks of the Burma Army.
Analysis
According to Jane's Terrorism & Insurgency Monitor Briefing of 25
November, the recent conflict might be the result of EAOs countering and
resisting the Tatmadaw's military pressure to sign the NCA. And the offensive might be probably designed to show the capability and
cohesion of the NA-B to conduct such a large scale operation. But may also be
an indication of an attempt by China to pressure
Naypyitaw into revamping the peace process.
It seems the coordinated attacks have achieved the attention
and message that the UNFC and NA-B were keen to deliver. But the simmering
armed conflict would likely go on for a while, until there is a change of
attitude in the peace process that all stakeholders could be at home with.
Meanwhile the cost of conflict, which have produced a few
thousands refugee fleeing to China and IDPs around the conflict areas, human
causalities and economic cost, would be squarely put on the shoulders of the
NA-B. Already, the parliament has agreed to discuss the issue, emphasizing it
on protecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity, labeling the EAOs
as being terrorist elements.
The EAOs has countered that when the Tatmadaw's offensives
resulted in gross human rights violations in ethnic areas, which the ethnic
population have to bear the brunt, nothing much was ever mentioned.
Whatever the case, this blame game won't bring anyone,
anywhere, any good and the lessons to be learned from this conflict episode is
that military pressure to goad the EAOs into signing the NCA is back-lashing
and it is time to accommodate the excluded parties into the peace process, so
as to become all-inclusive, in trying to build a genuine federal system of
government that all have been aspiring for so long.
Tags: Opinion
