BURMA ARMY ON WARPATH: Why Aung San Suu Kyi is unable to deliver?
On the heels of the massive anti-war demonstration in Myitkyina, involving thousands of demonstrators, United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) issued a seven point statement on 8 October, condemning the Burma Army or the military of its offensives on the Ethnic Armed Organization (EAOs) using various pretext, which could derail the peace process and have already devastated the livelihood of the ethnic population on a massive scale.
Simultaneously, the Kachin Independence
Organization/Army (KIO/KIA) also issued a statement stressing that the outcomes
stemming from the offensives on the EAOs and ethnic states would be solely the
responsibility of the military.
The military has been on its warpath, opening
war fronts in Kachin, Shan and Karen States, more intensively in the aftermath
of the Aung San Suu Kyi initiated 21st Century Panglong Conference
(21CPC), also known as Union Peace Conference (UPC), which was held from 31
August to 3 September. The second conference of its kind is scheduled to be
held within six months, earmarked for the coming February.
Of the three military fronts opened by the
Burma Army, the one in Kachin State seems to be the fiercest, employing
thousands of troopers, combined with air-strikes, in what amount to be the operation to overrun the KIA garrisons and
outposts.
According to the Kachin, the strategy seems to
be to drive a wedge between between the different KIA Brigades that protect the
rebel headquarters in Laiza, while in western Kachin State, the Burma Army has
focused its forces on the mining town of Hpakant, where the Kachin rebels have
their main source of revenue through jade-mining and trading.
The cardinal and fundamental question to be
asked here is why is the peace process situation deteriorating instead of
improving, right after the grand opening of ambitious 21CPC, under the
directive of democracy icon Suu Kyi?
Many, who are quite well-informed, are at a
loss to find a reasonable answer to this critical question, needless to say for
those with just a faint idea of how Burmese politics really works. But before
going further, let us first look at the current prevailing situation, in order
to make a better assessment.
Offensive wars in ethnic states
Generally speaking, a reasonable approach to
conduct peace process would be to first stop shooting, as without peaceful
atmosphere or at least absence of armed conflict, it is impossible to hold
all-inclusive negotiations that would lead to further consolidation of
nationwide ceasefire and eventual political settlement, that would pave way for
a lasting-peace. Instead, against this accepted concept, exactly the contrary
scenario has been unfolding in Burma, as the military is not committed to the
fair process of negotiation, but intentionally unleashing military offensives
to pressure and cow the EAOs into accepting its terms or preconceived ideas of “surrendered
peace” and not a compromised one that is central to every conflict
resolution undertaking.
Kachin State
The on and off armed engagement between the
KIA and Burma Army has been going on since 2011, when the ceasefire agreement
of seventeen years broke down.
According to Kachin sources, on 23 August the Burma Army raided and seized
the KIA held Nhkram Bum Post. But on 26 and 27 August, the KIA retook
Nhkram Bum Post and since that date onward there has been daily fighting.
The military started its intentional attacks
on KIA position around Laiza headquarters on 16 August. In its offensives not
only infantry troops, counting in thousands, were used but also air-strikes
were employed, beginning 23 September. Recently, on 7 October, KIA outpost of
Gidon and Nhkram were repeatedly strafed by four jet fighters in rotation.
Lamai Gum Ja of Peace Creation Group (PCG)
said: “The government (military) started strafing (KIA positions) using four
jet fighters this morning at 9:07 hours. It is known to be already the sixth
time. Now besides air-strikes, ground forces are also used in the ensuing armed
engagement, with twenty battalions involving some two to three thousands
troopers.”
The KIO information officer Lt-Col Naw Bu also
said: “We can confirm that [the Burma Army] attacked with four jet fighters for
about an hour from 8 am. I have not yet received information about the
situation on the ground, so I have no comment about that.”
On the same day, in Mansi township, south of
Kachin State and along Hpakant-Mokaung road, battles have reportedly occurred
between the KIA and Burma Army.
Furthermore, on 1 October, the Burma Army
shelled a Kachin village in northern Shan State, killing a two-year-old infant
and injuring two children, 5 and 6 years old, who were taken to a hospital in
nearby China, according to Kachin activist Khon Ja.
At this writing the Burma Army's bombardment,
air-strikes and ground troops attacks on KIA positions are still in progress.
Shan State
The military as if to demonstrate its hard
power and who is really calling the shots in peace process involving the EAOs,
attacked the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA) on 1
October, under the pretext and assumption of recruiting new soldiers, followed
by the bombardment of the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA)
positions in Mong Hsu township. RCSS is a signatory of Nationwide Ceasefire
Agreement (NCA), while the SSPP is not, but had signed a union-level ceasefire
agreement since a few years back.
On 1 October, Burma Army launched an offensive
against the RCSS/SSA in Mong Kung Township.
Burma Army battalion 292 attacked a drug relief center in Wan Boi
village, Donglao village-tract, in southern Shan State’s Mong Kung Township,
including other RCSS outposts.
“This relief center was initiated by local people and our armed group,”
he said. “We set up the facility to treat drug addicts – we have about 50
addicts in the program,“ according to RCSS spokesman, who added that some 2,000
local villagers have to flee their homes because of the fighting.
Further clashes occurred around the areas of Namlan and Mong Kung
Townships.
On 7 October, Burma Army pounded SSPP/SSA position in Loi Lan area of
Mong Hsu Township, supporting its infantry troops, according to General Sao
Khun Seng.
Khun Seng reportedly went to Eastern Central Command in Kho Lam to
complain about the attacks, but was denied meeting, although the commander was
said to ask for the meeting to clear things out.
On the same day, armed clashes between the RCSS and Burma Army's Light
Infantry Division 422 occurred in Tong Lau, near Kung Hsar village, Mong Kung
Township. Causality figures were not known from Burma Army side, while RCSS
said it was unscratched.
Karen State
The recent conflict in Karen State between the Democratic Karen Buddhist
Army – Kyaw Htet (DKBA-KH) and the Government’s Karen Border Guard Force
(KBGF), has resulted in over 4,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) and a
number of refugees fleeing to the Thai side of the border.
In the process of the conflict, the KBGF trying to encroach on the Karen
National Union (KNU) controlled territory of Hat Gyi, with the backing of the
Burma Army, where a dam is scheduled to be built, is seen as a threat that
could widen the war between the Burma Army and the KNU, a signatory of NCA, as
KBGF is an organ of the Burma Army.
The leadership of the KNU which oversees the Karen National Liberation
Army (KNLA), have all agreed from the outset to oppose any large development
projects in Karen State until a “stable peace” has been reached
with the Burmese Government.
The KNLA commanders were said to be against the project and have made it
clear that any territorial violation would be met with decisive military
retaliation.
Myitkyina demonstration
Two separate protests, on 3 and 6
October, came after months of escalating clashes between the Burmese military and
ethnic armed groups, and the death on Oct. 1 of a 2-year-old girl who was hit
by mortar fire, in Pu Wang village, Mung Koe Township, close to the Chinese
border.
The usual denial of Maj. Gen. Aung Ye Win, a spokesman at the
Ministry of Defence, was that the Burma
Army forces were not involved in any clashes on that day, as far as he was
concerned and refused to give any further comments on the events.
The KIA spokesperson, dispelling the
speculation that it might be the rebel's fire, also said there were no rebel
troops stationed in or around Pu Wang village at the time of the shelling.
Thousands of demonstrators, estimated to be
some 20,000 to 30,000 according the NGO sources, on 6 October demanded an end
to Burma Army offensives against ethnic armed groups in Kachin State and around
the country. The rally in the Kachin
State capital began around 8 am at the town’s Manau festival grounds, where a similar gathering took place
also on 3 October.
The ant-war protesters later marched through
the streets of Myitkyina chanting slogans
calling for peace. The rally was
held with official permission from the town’s police, according to organizers.
“We the people of Burma demand that the
Burmese army cease its offensives in Kachin
state and the rest of Burma, and end atrocities that are the result of
the civil war, such as displacement,
rape and human rights violations against local people,” said Tang Gon, one
of the organizers of the event.
The armed conflict in Kachin and Shan States,
that has started since 2011 when the ceasefire agreement of seventeen years
broke down between the KIA and the military,
resulted in mass forced relocation of nearly 100,000 internally
displaced persons (IDPs) spread over in 165 camps.
The protest particularly highlighted the
plight of the IDPs, caused by the restriction of aid delivery to be lifted on
humanitarian grounds.
Meanwhile the 21st Century Panglong
Civil Society Organizations' (CSOs) Preparatory Interim Forum issued a statement on 6 October demanding that the Tatmadaw
stopped the war in ethnic states, where even young children have to die and
suffer. The statement went on to demand that bilateral ceasefire declaration,
both by the military and the EAOs, so that the peace process would not be
derailed.
On 8 October, about a hundred persons from
twenty-seven CSOs that were concerned about the peace process demonstrated in
front of the Rangoon City Hall to immediately stopped the war.
The officially allowed protest shouted out
slogans such as “Stop the war immediately”, “Justice for the child killed
by artillery shell”, “Your wars are correct, only the citizens are wrong”,
and “ Emergence of federal union through peaceful means”.
The US and EU also issued
statements urging to stop the Burma Army offensives, during the week.
What now?
This brings us back again to the
point why the National League for Democracy (NLD) and its leader Suu Kyi, who
is supposed to deliver the goods of peace and development has been totally
powerless and could hardly instill a climate of peaceful atmosphere, not to
mention her all-inclusiveness commitment and eventual political settlement.
For her part, she seems to be
handling the situation appropriately, where give-and-take between her and the
military is concerned. Several private meetings with the Commander-in-Chief Min
Aung Hliang abound, no one really knows what kind of deal has been cut between
them. And if the latest US lifting of the remaining sanctions, that benefited
the military top brass and company, which Suu Kyi has made it necessary by
coaxing President Obama, is part of the deal is also not clear.
Whatever the case, one could
hardly blame Suu Kyi for not being able to deliver, as her helplessness hinges
on the political structure that empower the military more than her
election-winning NLD government on one hand and the other, her ability to push
through her party's policies depends largely on the largesse and political will
of the military to cooperate.
The undeniable and stark reality
is according to the military-drawn, 2008 constitution, the military is allotted
with twenty-five percent appointed seats in all states, regions and union
parliaments, plus the control of home affairs, defense and border affairs
ministries, which makes the military more powerful than the NLD regime.
Apart from this, the military has
been making its own policies and discharge them according to its liking. In
other words, it has a monopoly in decision-making, particularly where ethnic
states and EAOs are concerned.
It could not be in the interest of
the NLD to agree with the military in escalating the war in ethnic states, when
it is pushing hard for all-inclusiveness and nationwide ceasefire, so that its
21CPC could be held in a positive light. Sadly, there is nothing that the NLD
could do to stop the military from its warpath march.
This explains the deterioration of
peace process that is fast leading to the stage of collapse and the
helplessness that Suu Kyi has to endure and confront.
For the time being, the military's
objectives are pinned on occupation of more territories and winning small wars.
Economic gains and incentives could come from more territorial control coupled
with natural resources extractions, while at the same time it could also
undercut the ethnic rebels support base financially.
But one thing that the military is
not yet ready to tackle is the holistic political solution that encompass all
the ethnic nationalities, Bamar included, along the line of equitable power and
resources sharing, unless it is according to its prescription.
To sum up, it now looks like that
the military is determined by all means to push through its committed and
convinced mode of “surrendered peace”, where its preconceived
ideas of military guided democracy and its leading role are guaranteed and not
a noble, “compromised peace” that promotes “unity in
diversity” with a high degree of power devolution and decentralization,
which is anchored in an acceptable form of genuine federalism.
Tags: Opinion
