ANOTHER HURDLE: Last obstacle before next nationwide peace negotiation begins
After the positively
hailed opening of the Union Peace Conference (UPC), also dubbed 21st Century Panglong Conference
(21CPC), from 31 August to 3 September, the continued onus to hold an
all-inclusive nationwide peace process within six months is again faced with
another hurdle, as the joint committee member for convening 21CPC Khin Zaw Oo,
on the closing day of the conference told the journalists, that in order to
participate in national level political dialogue, which is due to be started as
soon as possible reportedly within a month, the non-signatory Ethnic Armed
Organizations (EAOs) would have to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement
(NCA) first.
Demand
of NCA signing
The
common understanding of 21CPC convening joint committee and as well the Union Peace Dialogue
Joint Committee (UPDJC) – the highest organ giving direction to the political
dialogue - is that while non-NCA signatory groups were permitted to attend the
21CPC, they will not be allowed to take part in the national-level peace talks,
if they failed to sign the NCA.
Echoing
Khin Zaw Oo, UPDJC member Salai Lian Hmung Sakhong of Chin National Front (CNF)
and as well, Hkun Okker of Pa-Oh National Liberation Organization (PNLO), both
also said that signing of the NCA is essential for the continued participation
of national-level political dialogue, which is to start soon and tasked with
collection of data, gathering opinions and suggestions at grass-root level to
be tabled in the second round of 21CPC within the next six months.
Practically
and effectively, this means that members of the United Nationalities Federal
Council (UNFC), as well as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army
(MNDAA) also known as Kokang, the Arakan Army (AA) and the Ta'ang National
Liberation Army (TNLA), are not included in the coming steps of the peace
process, including the United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic
Alliance Army (NDAA) or Mongla and National Socialist Council of
Nagaland-Kaplang (NSCN-K).
Government officials
encouraged ethnic armed groups to find ways to sign the NCA in the interim
period. If they cannot sign within this period, it is not yet clear if they
will be invited to attend the upcoming second session of the 21CPC.
General
Gun Maw from the Kachin Independence Organisation said no one wants to see any
groups left behind, and so negotiations over signing the NCA must begin as a
matter of urgency.
Daw Aung
San Suu Kyi said that while the government prioritises making the process as
inclusive as possible, it cannot wait indefinitely to start the political
dialogue.
“They (the non-signatories) have to
think about it in this coming period. But it is impossible to wait and hold up
the process … without knowing when they will sign,” Khin Zaw Oo said.
Commander-in-Chief
Min Aung Hlaing also made it clear in his opening speech during 21CPC that NCA
signing would be the necessary condition to participate in the peace process.
UNFC amendment proposal of NCA
The
government side has always maintained that the NCA is the handiwork of all
EAOs, including the UNFC. For the drafting of it involved the UNFC all along
from the start and thus should not be a problem to sign it, is partly true but
not all encompassing. As core outstanding issues were not allowed to be ironed
out, prior to the 15 October NCA signing, to UNFC's satisfaction, this has led
its members not to ink the document. The situation, in turn, has resulted in
only eight EAOs signing the document from a total of twenty-one EAOs
countrywide.
Nai Han
Thar during the 21CPC told reporters that the UNFC inability to sign the NCA is
due to the fact that the document has been unable to be amended because of the
government blockage and rejection to do so.
Nai Hong
Sar recently said that because the government at that time had rejected UNFC
demands to amend some points in the draft agreement, only eight EAOs went on to
sign the government's hijacked, finalised NCA version on 15 October 2015, with
all the current members of the UNFC refusing to comply to it.
The
seven EAOs that haven't signed the NCA are: the New Mon State Party (NMSP), the
Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army
(SSPP/SSA), the Arakan National Council (ANC), the Karenni National Progressive
Party (KNPP), the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), and the Wa National Organisation
(WNO).
The main
issue that has held back the UNFC then to sign the NCA was the lack of
all-inclusiveness, which the government and military today is still
implementing by excluding the MNDAA, TNLA and AA. But other than that proposal
designed to overcome this hurdle and lead to more comprehensive tackling of the
21CPC is explained by the UNFC in its eight point guidelines.
UNFC
eight point proposal guidelines
According to Htun Zaw,
also known as Twan Zaw, secretary of the UNFC, the eight point proposal
guidelines, presented to the government negotiators prior to Mai Ja Yang by the
UNFC, could be divided into three
categories of military, political, and transitional period of task to be
fulfilled.
Militarily there are four points to ponder.
The first is achieving
nationwide ceasefire, whether through unilateral ceasefire declaration of the
government first, followed by the EAOs' declaration, or declaration of
ceasefire simultaneously together by the military and EAOs.
The second is to agree
upon political agenda and ceasefire arrangement, including prior understanding
of Ceasefire Joint Monitoring Committee (JMC) undertakings, like military Code
of Conduct (CoC) and Terms of Reference (ToR) among others.
The third is the
inclusion of international organizations in JMC related issues and
undertakings.
The fourth one is an
establishment of independent, neutral enforcement tribunal with international
judiciary experts to oversee the ceasefire, with the mandate to take action if
either party wouldn't follow or breach the ceasefire agreement.
Politically, there are
three points, which includes agreeing to the Federal Union Army (FUA)
formation; tripartite dialogue which would involve the government-parliament-military,
EAOs and political parties, as decades-long endorsed by the United Nations; and
the “Union Accord” that would be achieved through UPC be implemented in the
amendment of 2008, military-drawn constitution or rewriting it altogether.
The last one is the
transitional period arrangement, which emphasizes the point that the government
should discuss and negotiate with the EAOs concerning developmental projects in
the ethnic areas.
Buttressing its position,
on 11 September, the UNFC issued a five point statement after its members met
from 10 to 11 September, for emergency meeting. The statement thanked President
Htin Kyaw and the government for the successful, historical 21CPC and
transparency shown to the public. But pointed out that all-inclusiveness and
termination of all military offensives still need to be implemented, adding
that the culture of resolving political problems through political means should
be practised to achieve solution.
Regarding the UNFC
proposal, especially the genuinely enforcible nationwide ceasefire agreement on
the ground, Dr Tin Myo Win, Aung San Suu Kyi's top peace negotiator's official
reply has not been positive, according to Htun Zaw. He said: “There is an
official reply from Dr Tin Myo Win, which said that regarding nationwide
ceasefire declaration, there has been no such declaration made during the
previous NCA signing (with the eight EAOs), implying that they also have no
intention to do otherwise with the non-signatory EAOs (proposal).”
He added: “We still need
to negotiate on this. The Tatmadaw (military) needs to declare nationwide ceasefire.
If they do, the concerned EAOs will do likewise. Alternatively, fixing a date
to declare (ceasefire) altogether at once is also acceptable.”
And so it seems, we are
all back to the square one. The first NCA signing was not all-inclusive and
thus the first UPC held in January this year was also not inclusive. But the
new regime headed by Suu Kyi again comes up with the commitment, vowing to make
it all-inclusive, inviting all non-signatory EAOs to attend the opening of
21CPC, which nearly almost all heeding the call, except for the three EAOs that
the military opted to sideline for various reasons. Again, it was not
all-inclusive, but Suu Kyi initiated UPC or 21CPC was far more better then just
eight EAOs attending the first conference, as some seventeen EAOs participated
at the second UPC.
People were really in the
upbeat mood and looking forward for a comprehensive, all-inclusive gathering
for the next round of conference, due to be held within six months, when the
government peace negotiators began pressing for immediate NCA signing from the
non-signatories or risk being sidelined. One could hardly understand why this
has to happen immediately on the heels of the 21CPC, which Suu Kyi has put a
lot of energy and efforts to woo the non-signatory EAOs to participate. The
non-signatory were even invited and allowed to participate in the amendment and
fine-tuning of the Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD) prior to the 21CPC,
so that a sense of ownership of the peace process could be instilled, according
to the government.
Now it is not clear,
whether the non-signatory EAOs could participate in the soon to be started national
level political dialogue, if they refused to sign the NCA immediately first.
This position of exclusion threat is, at least, what Khin Zaw Oo has being
driving at, with CNF and PNLO leaders endorsing it.
The sequence normally
should be deliberation of the UNFC eight points proposal between stakeholders;
followed by FPD amendments that would in turn correct some flaws or
disagreement in the NCA text; the signing of NCA by all the non-signatory EAOs;
conducting national level political
dialogue; and finally tabling the findings to the next 21CPC for further negotiations.
Given the convoluted
nature of the peace process, mainly due to the present scenario of “cart before
the horse”, a workable solution should be to at least let the non-signatory
EAOs participate in the different levels of FPD, NCA amendments and
national-level political dialogue, while parallel adjusting of different
outlooks and finding ways to be able to sign the NCA. Because prohibiting the
non-signatory EAOs to participate in national level political dialogue for
failing to sign the NCA, as it is formulated, immediately would do away with
the dream of all-inclusiveness peace process and only heighten the ongoing
ethnic armed conflict. Thus pushing further back the so far achieved peace
talks progress and national
reconciliation deliberations down the drain.
Meanwhile, unconfirmed
reports said that the Delegation for Political Negotiations (DPN), an UNFC
peace negotiation team, has been asked whether it would attend the 15-17
September FPD meeting. The first day is said to be scheduled for the meeting
between the government and DPN alone to negotiate the eight point joint
statement proposal, and the next two days to discuss the Terms of Reference
(TOR) for national level political dialogues. The DPN was said to reply that it
wasn't ready to attend it yet for unknown reason. But one inside source
reported that the three preconditions needed to be met first by the government
side were all-inclusiveness, joint statement on the eight point proposal, and
tripartite dialogue. However, it is not at all clear if this is a demand or
just a proposal to actually conduct discussions on the said topics.
In a nutshell, it is
advisable that the government and also the military should be reminded that the
whole peace process should be a jointly owned one of all stakeholders and
excluding one or the other from participation doesn't really look like a
co-ownership at all, but only exclusively dominated by the government.
Besides, pushing the
parties to sign the document which they are not totally in agreement is not a
wise approach. The government, especially the military faction, should not be
rigid but open and ready to alter the document that all could agree and live
with. There is even a saying in peace negotiation that “nothing is agreed until
everything is agreed.”
Another argument of CNF
Vice Chairman Salai Lian Hmung Sakhong in a SHAN
report on 9 September is also noteworthy. On 7 September, he reportedly said
the 21CPC that has just finished was an undertaking outside the jurisdiction of
parliament and the 2008 military-drawn constitution.
He said:
“When the 2008 constitution was drawn and also when it was promulgated, the
EAOs were not involved. That is why due to the country's need for essential
peace, political dialogue is being conducted outside of the 2008 constitutional
law.”
And finally, even a child knows that conducting peace negotiation while waging war is a recipe for failure and disaster. There is no such thing as a just war. The military faction within the government would be well advised to accommodate this earnest request of nationwide ceasefire, by all the EAOs and hundreds of civil society organizations, and bringing in the three excluded EAOs, so that different levels of peace process could be pulled through, paving way for the absence of war, development and reconciliation for the benefit of the people.
Tags: Opinion
