Will Chinese charm offensive be met with Burma's rapprochement?
Lately
the Chinese charm offensive in the new era of
Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD regime has been visibly in full swing.
Starting
with the Chinese envoy fact-finding and lobbying tour to Kachin State in June
to the recent Minister of the
International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of
China (CPC) Song Tao paying courtesy call to the former military strongman
General Than Shwe on the side lines, while presumably on official undertaking
to prepare for State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi visit to China.
A
series of lobbying and opinion-making measures were already been undertaken as
outlined by the VOA, in one of its analysis recently.
- On 4 June, Chinese Ambassador Hong Liang visited Kachin State to lobby for the restarting of stalled Myitsone Dam.
- On 8 June, China-Myanmar Swe Myo Pauk Phaw Friendship Foundation was formed.
- On 11 June, China-Myanmar motor-caravan scheduled journey was announced to promote friendship between the two nations, which would take place the following October.
- On 18 June, Union Minister U Ohn Win, who was on his way to attend energy related workshop in China, was briefed by a Chinese diplomat that China would help build up intensified human resources development, according to Xinhua news of 25 June.
Though
speculations were rife that the Chinese
are keen to continue the Myitsone dam project
that was disrupted due to its pending since 2011, the actual intention
might be a lot more than this just particular project.
While
the Chinese undoubtedly would have a host of other businesses and political
interest in mind, other than just this pending dam project, the National League
for Democracy (NLD) regime's main and immediate concern is on how to make use
of the Chinese influence on the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) along the two
countries' border, so that peace could be achieved.
Suu
Kyi's unmistakable and explicit message on Monday at the Union Peace Dialogue
Joint Committee (UPDJC) meeting was that although peace is the most essential
for the country, economic development won't be neglected.
“While
peace is important, we're not going to neglect economic development. Because
one reason for not achieving peace is the physical and mental necessities
(well-being) of the people still could not be fulfilled,” said Suu Kyi, who is
also Chairwoman of the UPDJC.
She
added: “In the long run, without (enduring) peace, we can't maintain any kind
of economic development. No matter how much economic progress (we make), once
peace is eroded, the progress made would be also be shattered”.
Regarding
the matter Ye Htut, the former information minister and also spokesperson of
the then president Thein Sein said that the widespread and heightened armed conflict
occurred after the pending of Myitsone dam, even this might be a coincidence.
In his
interview with the RFA, aired on 13 August, he said: “Finally, as nearly all
non-signatory EAOs that have not yet signed the ceasefire, with the exception
of two groups in the south, are based along the Chinese border, China's role as
being utmost important is being accepted by all of us”.
He
stressed: “The second point is that whatever it is, the escalation of armed
conflict and the beginning of it happened after the stoppage of the Myitsone
Dam project, although could be taken as coincidence is the reality. I believe,
finding an answer acceptable to all would support (foster) peace and also
relationship with China”.
“I'm of
the opinion that this should be done in a speedy manner,” he added.
Daw Doi
Bu, a leader of The Unity and Democracy Party of Kachin State and former MP, also
said although she welcomed the forming and investigation of the commission, the
people are against the project.
When
asked By the RFA , on 13 August, what she thought about the possible referendum
of the issue she replied that “ there is no need to do that as it is clear the
people – not only the Kachin but also the rest of the country – are against the
project”.
A day
earlier, on 12 August, a 20-member commission will review and scrutinise the
projects to assess the likely benefits for Myanmar citizens, and to make
recommendations on whether they should proceed. Accordingly, Deputy Pyithu
Hluttaw Speaker U T Khun Myat will chair the commission, and the minister for
the Office of the State Counsellor, U Kyaw Tint Swe, will serve as vice chair.
The commission's first report to the president is due on November 11.
Meanwhile,
Suu Kyi will be paying an official visit to China from August 17 to 21 at the
invitation of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang
announced on Monday.
Given
such a backdrop, with the Chinese opinion-making movement, in high gear,
advocating for the resumption of the Myitsone dam, coupled with the head of
state reception status being prepared for Suu Kyi, the issue's controversial
clout has reached a critical stage.
A lot
of questions like: whether it is really
the case that the suspension of Myitsone dam has a direct effect on the widespread
armed conflict in Kachin and northern Shan States; what will the consequence be
if NLD regime is to permanently scrub the agreement; will NLD be able to
withstand the public pressure, if it is pressured to comply to its contractual
obligation literally; whether China will be ready to accept the likely to be
adjusted agreement terms of either the complete stoppage of the project, in
exchange for other supports like one China policy, South China Sea dispute and
its one belt one road global undertaking, or not, among others.
All
these long lines of concern might become clearer, once Suu Kyi has wrapped up
her China's visit and talked over the outstanding issues that she has inherited
from the previous Thein Sein regime. But for the time being, we just have to
cross our fingers and hope for the best, for the people of Burma.
Tags: Opinion
