BURMA'S PEACE PROCESS AT CROSSROAD: The Northern Alliance Connection
During the last few weeks quite a lot of activities have been seen trying to
address the upcoming 21st Century Panglong Agreement (21CPC), also known as
Union Peace Conference (UPC), initiated by the State Counsellor Aung San Suu
Kyi. They are the Ethnic Armed Organizations' (EAOs) Mai Ja Yang meeting, youth
meeting of all ethnicity in Panglong town of Shan State, and the so-called
Northern Alliance or United Wa State Army (UWSA) and Mong La or National
Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) meeting with the government, just to name the
three outstanding gatherings.
While the first two meetings were well covered, due to the high profile and public interest, the Northern Alliance embracing the government's overtures were vaguely covered and thus needs a more in-depth study to be able to have a more informed understanding, on the importance of this happening.
It is all the more becoming increasingly interesting, as Khin Zaw Oo, secretary of the Peace Commission, quite recently said that the most controversial all-inclusiveness issue, involving the so far excluded 3 EAOs would be allowed to participate in the peace process, which has been a stumbling block for the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), last year in October.
But let us look at a bit more on this so-called Northern Alliance that is being considered as Chinese proxy and the military's main targeted enemy; and why this change of heart in the course of finding a solution to the country's ethnic conflict.
·
Two categories of EAOs
Before
we talk about the so-called Northern Alliance, we might need to go a bit into
how this formation has started and come about.
Generally
speaking, according to the contemporary political landscape, the EAOs could be
divided into signatory and non-signatory EAOs.
The
signatories are All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF), Arakan Liberation
Party/Arakan Liberation Army (ALP/ALA), Chin National Front (CNF), Democratic
Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), Karen National Liberation Army-Peace Council
(KNLA-PC), Karen National Union (KNU), Pa-O National Liberation Organization
(PNLO)and Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army-South (RCSS/SSA-S).
But the
non-signatory EAOs could again be divided into 9 UNFC members and the so-called
Northern Alliance, involving the UWSA, Kokang or Myanmar National Democratic
Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Mong La or NDAA. It is not clear if the Palaung State
Liberation Front/Ta'ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA) and United League
of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) are officially part of the Northern Alliance,
even though it is evident that the MNDAA and the said two have formed a three
party military alliance, actively combating the government forces, starting
with the outbreak of the Kokang conflict last year. It is also to be noted that
the ULA/AA is not part of the UNFC, whereas the MNDAA and PSLF/TNLA are
members.
During
the Mai Ja Yang meeting from 26 to 30 July, the Arakan groups were represented
with three parties, namely: ULA/AA, Arakan National
Council/Arakan Army (ANC/AA) and ALP/ALA. Only the ANC/AA is a member of UNFC.
The
UNFC has 9 members which originally was said to be 10. They are:
1. Kachin
Independence Organization (KIO)
2. New
Mon State Party (NMSP)
3. Shan
State Army-North (SSPP /SSA)
4. Karen
National Union (KNU)
5. Karenni
National Progressive Party (KNPP)
6.
Chin National Front (CNF)
5
new members:
1. Lahu
Democratic Union (LDU)
2. Arakan
National Council (ANC)
3. Pa-O
National Liberation Organization (PNLO)
4. Ta'ang
National Liberation Army (TNLA) also known as Palaung State Liberation Front
(PSLF)
5. Wa
National Organization (WNO)
The
KNU has suspended its membership in the UNFC, without actually resigning, prior
to the signing of NCA about a year ago, while the CNF and PNLO were dismissed
by the UNFC, due to the fact that they had not follow the majority decision not
to sign the NCA, for lack of all-inclusiveness. But on the eve of the signatory
and non-signatory EAOs reconciliation effort to act as one party in the
political bargaining process, the UNFC spokesman's official count of nine
members remains unclear.
Apart
from the UNFC, another armed group outside all the other folds is National
Socialist Council of Nagaland -Khaplan (NSCN-K), which is struggling to form an
independent state by carving territories out from both India and Burma.
·
The Northern Alliance
According
to renowned researcher and journalist Bertil Lintner, in one of his his
piece he wrote: “On 3 November 1994,
their leader, Chao Ngo Lai, summoned a meeting of the UWSA and seven other
groups that had also made peace with Rangoon, and an umbrella organization
called Peace and Democratic Front (PDF) was formed. It consisted of four former
Communist Party Burma (CPB) groups as well as a number of ethnic rebel armies
that had made peace with Rangoon after the lucrative deal the ex-communists had
struck with the state. (Source: Ethnicity in Asia, By Colin Mackerras;
Section 10, Myanmar/Burma, By Bertil Lintner, Edited 2003, Published by
RoutledgeCurzon)
According
to Paul Keenan, in his recent EBO Background Paper titled “The UWSA and the
Future”, he wrote: “In March 2009, the Myanmar Peace and Democracy Front
(MPDF), was reportedly formed. The four-group military alliance comprised the
United Wa State Army (UWSA), the MNDAA, NDAA, and the KIO.”
In his
footnote, he said he was unable to confirm the possible participation of the
SSPP in the said front. This writer has also tried in vain to clarify the case.
However,
Tom Kramer, a keen observer and Burma watcher, writer said that the front
consists of the UWSA, MNDAA, NDAA, New Democratic Army -Kachin (NDA-K) and SSA
North.
As
mentioned, the inclusion of SSPP/SSA North still could not be confirmed, while
the NDA-K in 2009 transformed itself
into government's Border Guard Force (BGF).
Presently,
the Northern Alliance or PDF could be construed as a combination of all
ex-communist MNDAA, UWSA and NDAA and perhaps including the TNLA and ULA/AA.
From 26-28 March 2016, the United Wa State Party/United Wa State Army (UWSP/UWSA) hosted an Ethnic Armed Organizations Leaders’ Summit at its headquarters in Panghsang, Wa Special Region. Present at the meeting were representatives from the Kachin Independence Organisation/Kachin Independence Army (KIO/KIA), SSPP/SSA, PSLF/TNLA, the Kachin based ULA/AA and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA).
But
whether the above mentioned meeting could be taken as the formation of a
Northern Alliance is also not clear, but they did publicized a joint-resolution
after the meeting to stop the armed conflict in Kachin and northern Shan
States, either through persuasion or if needed be, by force.
Whatever
the case, it is fair to conclude that the core members of the group includes
the UWSA, MNDAA and NDAA.
·
UWSA, MNDAA meeting with the government
On 4
August, Khin Zaw Oo, government peace negotiator from the Peace Commission said
the three ethnic armed groups excluded from the peace process will no longer be
required to surrender, prior to joining the talks, a softening of the
military's tone toward the rebels.
He
stressed that the military has relaxed that demand after the groups have shown
"they really wanted peace", Khin Zaw Oo, a member of the government
Peace Commission, according to Reuters in an interview.
"Previously,
we made the exact demand that they lay down their arms if they wanted to get
involved in the peace process - they have found that difficult to accept,"
said the retired lieutenant general, who is due to meet the armed groups soon.
Instead,
he added, the army now wants the rebels to issue a statement "showing
their political willingness to abandon their weapons".
During
the UWSA and NDAA visit, in response to the government's overtures between 29
July to 1 August, Suu Kyi explained the
peace activities, including the Panglong conference to the two visiting parties
and they in turn explained their positions and their work for peace and
cooperation, within their special regions.
On 30
July and 1 August, UWSA and NDAA met separately with the National
Reconciliation Peace Center (NRPC), in Naypyitaw and Yangon (Rangoon)
respectively to discuss details on how the two could participate in the peace
process.
The
outcomes were in addition to the two's pledges not to secede from the union and
full support of the government's all-inclusiveness position, they promised to
find ways to participate in the 21CPC or UPC. Although the NDAA could promise
that it would participate in the amendment and fine-tuning of the Framework for
Political Dialogue (FPD), due to its Chairman Sai Luen's presence and able to
make the decision immediately, the UWSA still needed to inform the central
committee members and leaders back at home, as Pao Yu Yi, Deputy-Secretary
General of the UWSA has no authority to make decision.
“Besides,
they also proposed a resource sharing issue and expressed their views that the
country’s
resources should be equitably shared among all ethnic peoples for the
development all regions and the taxation be managed systematically,” said U
Khin Zaw Oo, when meeting the NDAA in Yangon.
Reportedly,
the two sides also discussed land issues, environmental conservation, human
rights and freedom of belief.
·
Chinese envoy and charm offensive
During
the Mai Ja Yang EAOs' leadership summit meeting, held from July 26-30, China’s Special Envoy
on Asian Affairs Sun Guoxiang on the opening day addressed the audience,
stating that China backed “all the forces that support internal peace in
Burma.”
Sun
Guoxiang also announced the US$3 million donation China had rendered to the
Joint Monitoring Committee, a body overseeing the commitments of the Nationwide
Ceasefire Agreement reached between the previous government and 8 EAOs in October last year.
In response to the query of
a news media on China's stance to the issue of “all-inclusiveness”, he
left no doubt that it is all for it.
“We encourage all the armed ethnic organisations to attend
the 21st-century Panglong Conference for the internal peace of Myanmar. We
recognise that there are diverse and different perspectives on peace by
different parties. We hope that all sides cooperate for the achievement of
peace in Myanmar,” said Sun Guoxiang, special envoy for Asian Affairs at the
foreign affairs ministry in China.
Prior to the Mai Ja Yang EAOs' meeting, the VOA analysis of
30 June, on Burma-China relationship, pin-pointed the calculated policy shift
of China in a variety of ways that propelled its charm offensive undertakings.
·
On 4 June, Chinese Ambassador Hong Liang visited Kachin
State to lobby for the restarting of stalled Myitsone Dam.
·
On 8 June, China-Myanmar Swe Myo
Pauk Phaw Friendship Foundation was formed.
·
On 11 June, China-Myanmar
motor-caravan scheduled journey was announced to promote friendship between the
two nations, which would take place the following October.
·
On 18 June, Union Minister U Ohn
Win, who was on his way to attend energy related workshop in China, was briefed
by a Chinese diplomat that China would help build up intensified human
resources development, according to Xinhua news of 25 June.
The forthcoming October motor-caravan to promote friendship
was planned to include free medical treatment, donation to poor areas, building
of schools, helping, supporting monastery and orphanage schools. Sports activities
like boxing, football, volleyball, including friendship concert and artistic
painting shows are said to be also on agenda.
·
Military's change of heart
In a
surprise move from its prior, exclusion stance for the 3 excluded EAOs, the
military now said that it would accept them to participate in the peace
process, without having to surrender their arms.
According
to Reuters, on 4 August, Khin Zaw Oo, a member of the government's Peace
Commission said the army has relaxed the necessity to surrender their arms'
demand, after the groups have shown "they really wanted peace".
"Previously,
we made the exact demand that they lay down their arms if they wanted to get
involved in the peace process - they have found that difficult to accept,"
said the retired lieutenant general, who is due to meet the armed groups soon.
Instead,
he added, the army now wants the rebels to issue a statement "showing
their political willingness to abandon their weapons".
Responding
to the military's new initiative, Tar Aik Kyaw spokesperson for the TNLA said:
“We are ready to cooperate if the Tatmadaw's opinion is for all-inclusiveness
in the peace process without having to surrender arms. I think, the remaining
obstacles to the peace process could become easier (to resolve)”.
He
further stressed that although the armed struggle is not the right path, it is
impossible that they have to surrender their arms prior to the guaranteed
political settlement of rights to self-determination and equality.
·
Analysis
To sum
up whole situation, the UWSA and NDAA were not pushing hard, statehood for the
former within the union and upgraded self-administrative zone for the latter;
but praised the NLD's all-inclusiveness position and vowed to support the 21CPC
or UPC. Besides, both made a profound promise that they won't secede from
Burma.
This
could be viewed as toning down their former demands, or putting them behind as
a back-burner for the time being, and settling in to accommodate the big
brother's priority, policy line of ending the civil war to create a market
place that all could benefit.
Again,
the promise of non-secession, which the Bamar political class and the military
very much like to hear might have loosen the animosity against the two
groups,considered to be the Chinese proxies. But the real point is, it is just
a lip-service that really doesn't cost anything, as the two won't benefit, in
actual term, by pushing for secession. For China, unlike Russia's Putin isn't
interested or looking to carve out territories from a neighbouring country like
Burma, but sees it as its market place and as well instrumental in trying to
still its energy hunger, apart from Burma's support to its “one China policy”
and “one belt one road” economic scheme that goes beyond Burma, with regional
and global ambition.
Thus,
the promise of non-secession works both ways. One is a welcome way out for the
government, especially the military, to justify its narrow nationalism rhetoric
pointing fingers at the two groups as foreign puppets that have been trying to undermine
national integrity and unity is now being averted; and the other, to go along
with the push of China's all-inclusiveness, as it is the only sane way out of
the debacle that it has created. Besides, China insistence on neutrality and
refuses to comply with Burma's demand to pressure its adversaries along the
border might have played an important decision-making role.
Other
than that, China's cooperation and participation in Mai Ja Yang EAOs' meeting
and its charm offensives are testimonies that it is for the peaceful solution
and would do everything, including pressuring its so-called proxies along the
border, to achieve that goal for a “win-win” outcome. And key to this is
all-inclusiveness, first and foremost.
For
now, all we could do is to follow on how the inclusion of the three excluded
EAOs would be taken in, amendments of framework for political dialogue by all
parties, government, military, EAOs and political parties; and how the constitutional crisis would be
resolved through a federal democratic setting, at the forthcoming UPC, that is
able to embrace the aspirations of all ethnic groups, Bamar included.
All in
all, this positive turn of events might bring us a step closer to the
realization of peaceful political settlement, provided all the stakeholders
could make use of the opportunity that comes their way in a wise and pragmatic
sense.
Tags: Opinion
