The offensives in northern Shan State might have now started as a slow burner but with massive troops deployment, seven out of total ten Light Infantry Divisions (LID) of the Burma Army (Tatmadaw) already in the area, it is only a matter of time before the massive onslaught, on Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Kachin Independence Army (KIA) 4th and newly formed 6th Brigade, are about to begin.

Already starting March, clashes have been occurring between TNLA and Burma army, on the heels of the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS)-TNLA clashes beginning November last year and have largely died down, following the parliament endorsement that the Burma Army should go in to restore normalcy. Recent reports by BBC said that in Namhsan, Namtu, Kyaukme and Kutkhai areas, battles were raging on a daily basis, between the Tatmadaw and TNLA, KIA forces.

Colonel Mai Aik Kyaw of TNLA told the media that Burma Army had reinforced some 500 military trucks, deploying about 4000 troops to combat the ethnic forces in the area. He also said that the Namkham-Kutkhai area is the operational area of the ethnic military alliance involving the TNLA, KIA and  Shan State Progress Party (SSPP).

Meanwhile, Arakan Army (AA) had made public that it's troops ambushed the Tatmadaw's troops that belongs to LID 565, killing some 30, including a high ranking, deputy battalion commander, at  Butheetaung Township in Arakan State. The Burma army has been vowing to drive out the AA from the Arakan State and has been ambushed while reinforcing its troops to fight against the outfit.

As the Tatmadaw, undoubtedly, has embarked on a war path rather than the peaceful settlement, its half-hearted reconciliation scheme of parroting “trust-building” and facilitation through Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD) seems to be going down the drain. The case in point is its prohibition of the Committee for the Shan State Unity (CSSU) meeting that was supposed to take place in Rangoon for three days, within the parameter of national reconciliation deliberation.

The three-day planned annual meeting of the CSSU ended after only one day on 3rd March, Thursday due to pressure from the local military security establishment in Rangoon.

The committee, which is a coalition of ethnic armed groups, political parties and civil society organizations, aimed to explore strategies that would advance collaboration and unity within Shan State’s diverse communities, apart from the necessity of constitutional amendment to achieve genuine federalism and employing the real essence of NCA to achieve real internal peace.

According to Sai Leik, spokesman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), members of a local military affairs security team asked him to let them in to the meeting room to listen to the proceedings  but the request was refused.

“Upon our refusal, they went to pressure the people responsible for the hotel. They also demanded that we terminate our meeting for lack of permission to hold the meeting, in which we asked that they do the rejection officially in writing. But as they declined, we said that since it is the directive not concerned with us (as it is not prohibited according to the law) we will not stop the meeting,” said Sai Leik.

But nevertheless, the CSSU meeting scheduled for another two days to be held at Summit Parkview Hotel was unable to continue, due to the Rangoon Regional authority's order to the hotel concerned, that without permission it could not permit the holding of meeting at its venue.

But according to “Trust-building and interpreting principle of political framework” and specifically for the level of “National Level Political Dialogue”, it is clearly allowed and approved as the following paragraph in Political Dialogue Framework  is written.

“In line with the basic guidelines laid down by the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC), the working committees may hold the national level political dialogues in groups or in single group of governments, ethnic armed groups and civil society organizations from states and regions.”

As a result, only a skeleton, wrap up meeting was held the following day, on 4 March, at the SNLD head office in Rangoon, without going through the three-day schedule as planned.

CSSU Statement

On 4 March, the CSSU, which is made up of Shan State Joint Action Committee (SSJAC), Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), SNLD, Civil Society Organizations inside and outside the country,  issued a five point statement:

·         emphasizing to work towards unity, harmony, equality, development, and self-determination of all ethnic groups in Shan State;

·         amending 2008 Constitution  in order to establish a federal union that reflects the desire of all ethnic groups;

·         promising to support the current peace building effort in accordance with the essence of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA);   

·         encouraging to find solution to all armed conflicts among the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and between the EAOs and the Tatmadaw through peaceful means; and

·         accepts the application of Eastern Shan State Development and Democracy Party (ESSDDP) to become its latest member.

Given the Tatmadaw's likely massive confrontation course with the  EAOs along the Burma-China border and northern Shan State as a whole and perhaps sensing the military build up and escalation of war, the Chinese Ambassador to Burma Mr. Hong Lian warned that he hoped that no more incident of stray bombs will fall again on Chinese soil like in the past, after the new regime take over.

“China is the country which wants most to see peace in Myanmar so that there will be no more stray bombs falling on our territory,” he told reporters, referring to the the war that broke out between the Myanmar Army and Kokang forces last year, when he met reporters on 4 March at his residence, according to recent Mizzima report.

An intended and a thinly veiled threat could also be detected, when he said China was practising an “open door policy,” one in which no bombs from other countries fell on Chinese territory, but Myanmar had proved to be the exception.

“The bombs from Paukphaw (friendly) country of Myanmar fell on our territory. We would have retaliated if the bombs were from other countries,” he added.

While militarily the confrontation course is unmistakably moving towards a wider, nastier war, the political course of “trust building”, especially where the ethnic groups are concerned has also taken a beating, if not yet already totally depleted.

The consequences arising from such failed calculation could be tremendous and it would do the military clique good if it could reassess the wrong course that it has now taken, could push the country into the abyss of a wider mini-Cold War, which will lead to the “lose-lose” outcome for all stakeholders.

Already the pitting of RCSS against TNLA has opened up a latent formation of confrontation groups: a pro-Chinese MNDAA, United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) or Mong La and TNLA on one side; and the RCSS and Burma army on the other, although both sides rejected that they have anything to do with each other.

The military clique's desire or even commitment to cling on to power in order to protect its group interest is understandable but misplaced.

Its best bet is to fade away in dignity through political compromise, settlement and accommodation, not trying to cling on to power at all cost. Otherwise, the “Arab Spring” that the military is so determined to keep away from would usher in against its will.

The short-sighted thinking of keeping the war flames on so that it could retain its political edge and parroting "trust-building", while doing just the opposite, as the prohibition of Shan unity meeting shows, wouldn't do anyone good and could even drag down the country into total disintegration that the military is so keen to avoid.

It is high time for the military to make correct assessment and invest every effort to avert undesirable man-made catastrophe of self-destruction, for the benefit of the country and the people that have suffered for so long under its rule.