At long last the presidential candidate names have been made known, after months of speculation, frustration and political push and pull, whether Aung San Suu Kyi would be able to become president by circumvention of the 59(f) constitutional clause, that bars anyone to take the highest office whose immediate family member or members are foreigners.

Suu Kyi has two sons who are British and so was her late husband. 

She gave up hope when she was unable to woo the military to waive the said clause so that she could run for the presidency. As there has been no cooperation from the military,  the selection of presidential candidates to speed up the process from 17 February to 10 March followed, where the selection of two National League for Democracy (NLD) candidacy, U Htin Kyaw and Henry Van Thio, were announced.

On 11 November, U Htin Kyaw and Henry Van Thio, both from NLD were elected by the lower and upper houses to contest for the first and second president respectively. 

U Htin Kyaw competed with the vice president Dr Sai Mauk Kham and won with 274 to 29 votes in the lower house, while Henry Van Thio won over U Khin Aung Myint, the ex-parliamentary speaker from USDP, with 148 to 13 votes in the upper house.

On the same day, the military selected it's presidential candidate by naming U Myint Swe, Chief Minister of Yangon Division(Region), who is also a former general and USDP member.

The day before, on 9 March, Office of Pyidaungsu Hluttaw said, in its announcement signed by its Speaker Mahn Win Khaing Than, that Presidential Electoral College to oversee the election was formed.

The members of the board are Pyithu Hluttaw Speaker U Win Myint, Amyotha Hluttaw Speaker Mahn Win Khaing Than, Pyithu Hluttaw Deputy Speaker U T Khun Myat, Amyotha Hluttaw Deputy Speaker U Aye Tha Aung, Pyithu Hluttaw representative Dr Myo Aung of East Dagon Myothit constituency, Amyotha Hluttaw representative U Ba Myo Thein of the Yangon Region constituency, and military representative Maj-Gen Than Soe.

On 14 March, scrutiny of the presidential candidates will be carried out, which the electoral scrutiny team said would sail through easily, and the actual voting of the combined lower and upper houses will follow the following day on 15 March. The final outcome is a forgone conclusion  that the NLD candidate U Htin Kyaw will be elected president, although the first and second vice-presidents election outcome could still be open.

The three presidential contenders

Aung San Suu Kyi's selection of the two presidential nominees for NLD, U Htin Kyaw and Henry Van Thio,  is seen as in line with her building of reconciliation government policy and is welcomed by most of the people, including the non-Bamar ethnic groups.

U Htin Kyaw, almost apolitical in the eyes of many, is a trusted childhood friend of Aung San Suu Kyi. Since 2012, he is the Executive Committee Member of Daw Khin Kyi Foundation, dedicated to Aung San Suu Kyi's mother.

 

He was born on 20 July 1946 and is the second son of the late, well known writer Min Thu Wun, who was elected as an NLD's MP for Rangoon, Kamaryut Township in 1990, and Daw Kyi Kyi.  He is also a writer himself under the pen name of Dala Ban, which is a Mon name. His father-in-law U Lwin was one of the NLD founders and his wife is also the NLD's MP for Thongwa township who is always by the side of the NLD leader. Both husband and wife remained close to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi during her years of house arrest.

NLD Information said that U Htin Kyaw received a bachelor’s and then a master’s degree in economics from  Rangoon University.

He also worked as a university teacher. In 1971 he became the first scholar to be sent abroad by the university’s fledgling computer department. He studied at the now-defunct University of London Institute of Computer Science at the same time that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi lived in London. She later became a student at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, while U Htin Kyaw returned to socialist-era Burma, ruled by General Ne Win, according to Myanmar Times report.

Henry Van Thio is a little known ethnic Chin, who is NLD's MP from Chin State.

According to his official biography, he was born in Chin State’s Htantlang township, a remote mountainous area on the border with India. He has three children and a degree and a diploma in law. As a military officer he served in seven locations across the country. After entering the civil service, he ran a tabacco factory in Mandalay, worked in a liquor plant and was a deputy general manager in the Ministry of Industry.

U Myint Swe is the military's presidential nomination. 

According to Mizzima report, Lieutenant General Myint Swe is an ethnic Mon ex-military officer who graduated from the Defence Services Academy in 1971 as part of the 15th intake. He became a Brigadier General and commander of Light Infantry Division 11 in 1997 and was appointed as Commander of Southeastern Command and a member of the State Peace and Development Council in 2001. He was transferred as a Commander of Yangon Command and promoted to Major General. He also acted as Chairman of Yangon Division Peace and Development Council. He became the Chief of Military Security Affairs after Khin Nyunt was purged in 2004 and became Chief of Bureau of Special Operations - 5 (BSO-5) in January 2006. He was nominated as chief-minister of Yangon Region by President Thein Sein. 

Recent Eleven Media report said that he took part in the suppression of the so-called Saffron Revolution in 2007 and is said to have ordered the crackdown. In response Myint Swe said that he only did his duty and if anyone could prove he had done anything wrong, he could be hanged.

Moreover, Myint Swe had been criticised for ordering attacks on students and activists. He was condemned for using "Swan Arr Shin" (Powered Beings)--groups of hired thugs--to brutally crackdown protesters as students in Yangon staged a protest in front of Yangon City Hall on March 5, 2015.

Besides, he is listed on the U.S. Treasury Department list of sanctioned individuals due to his role in the former military government.

Ethnic leaders' opinion

While many ethnic and Bamar people alike are in agreement with the Aung San Suu Kyi's national reconciliation undertakings, some ethnic leaders opinion aired are mostly positive on what they actually think about the development.

And according to 7 Day Daily's recent report, Kachin State Democracy Party (KSDP), Chairman Dr. Manam Tuja and former Vice-Chairman of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) was said to be satisfied and happy that starting from 1962 onwards this is the first time non-Bamar ethnic nationalities with ability were selected for the highest office. 

“What Aung San Suu doing now is good. It also shows the pattern of union and national reconciliation is portrayed and visible. Besides, it shows the issue of ethnic nationalities is not left behind. (We could) say this is good and I welcome it. (We) should look at this in terms of the whole union,” said Dr. Tuja.

Echoing the same sentiment, “It is good that the presidential candidate is a Mon. It means the NLD government today is prioritizing ethnic unity. I see this selection as empowerment of understanding   and consolidation between ethnic nationalities. This is a good omen,” said Nai Hong Sa, leader of the New Mon State Party (NMSP), who is also the Vice-Chairman of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC).

Slightly different from the Kachin and Mon leader, Khun Htun Oo, Chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) said: “The election of all ethnics (from 6 ethnic nationalities) could be seen as a largesse of the winning party or the strong, likely urge to forge national reconciliation. But there are organizations that are still left out that had struggled together with the NLD all along.”

“If national reconciliation is to be comprehensively pursued earnestly, the same percentage of effort that has been tried to resolve the problem with the Tatmadaw must also be invested with the ethnic nationalities in trying to reach understanding, not even one percent less. A lot of people seems to understand that national reconciliation is possible only by negotiating with one or two big parties. This is absolutely wrong,” stressed Khun Htun Oo.

Igor Blaževič, director of the Educational Initiatives, training program for the Burma activists based in Thailand,  is also in agreement when he said: “The present political scenario is totally a different one, with Arakan, Kachin, Karen participating in the parliament and selection of Mon and Chin as presidential candidates, it is like the first light of the dawn.”

But he said that we still need to look at how the government, including states and regional governmental allotment will be divided and formed. He stressed: “I hope someone from SNLD will take responsibility of an important post. If more governmental positions will be given to non-NLD ethnic nationalities, it will develop for the better. In short the move is in the right direction, but we are still not there. We need more concrete signal from the NLD that it is willing to do this.”

USDP-Military regime's hard-line stance

Somewhat peculiar and parallel to all these ongoing hectic political development, commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing on 9 March  told his audience at the country's Defence University that status quo will be maintained for at least another five years and any undertaking that would alter the present situation will not be accepted.

 “Tatmadaw steadfastly has held on to multi-party system for five years and progress has also been made. During next second five year phase, deviating from the present situation will not be accepted,” announced Min Aung Hlaing in his official Facebook.

He also reiterated the traditional military position that the 1962 military coup was to protect the country from disintegration, due to the inadequate 1948 Union of Burma Constitution. Apart from that he also termed the 1988 popular uprising as a disturbance, due to failure of the then military regime to address the people's need.

U Zin Linn from BNI interpreted that as Min Aung Hlaing's statement, which was made on the eve of the presidential election, meant to say that 2008 military-drafted constitution cannot be touched and threatened that if the NLD refused to work with them there will be no peace. And this could be emphasized that if needed, power will not be transferred.

Other crucial issues that might have formed the military hard line position includes the massive deployment of its troops in Shan State, debacle or bickering over presidential power transition ceremony to removing of office equipment by the out-going government employees, increased harassment and arresting of activists and sensitive and aggressive responses over question of the military regime's fire-sale of the country's assets, including the lack of transparency in granting business concessions to its people and cronies.

The way ahead

No one know for sure on how the future political prospect will look like. But one thing is sure without the cooperation of the military the NLD administration will not function and the military will not be able come out of its pit of self-employed saviour of the country role, even if the majority of the population sees it as an anti-democracy and self-serving entity, primarily concerned for its group survival. In short, both camps need each other whether they like it or not, as they are forced to be coalition partners and must function as a government.

A well known constitutional lawyer, U Aung Htoo a few weeks ago made an analogy that NLD is like a government with only two feet, while the military is the two hands. The military's one hand is the army, while the other is the police force, for the military is entitled according to the constitution to handle and appoint the three Ministries of Home, Defence and Border Affairs.

Given such a situation, a compromise that would enable the country and the administration to function is the first priority, even if we have to muddle through for a while in search for a better political settlement for the future. Moreover, Suu Kyi should place herself above mere power politics to build democratic institutions that would shape Burma's destiny, while the military should come out of its self-employed country's saviour role and listen to the voice of the people.