As the last phase of power transition is taking place, the ethnic nationalities' armed and unarmed groups are scrambling to interact, each in its own way, with the Aung San Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy (NLD) regime on how to push their agendas further.

From 24 to 26 March, eight of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) signatory Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs)  led by Karen National Union (KNU) and Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) met in Chaing Mai, held the “Second  Ethnic Armed Organizations Summit” and released a statement, outlining on how it would go about with the peace process.

At the same time, from 21 to 26 March, the non-signatory EAOs from United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) were widening their political bargaining skill by participating a federalism seminar, held also in Chaing Mai.

On 27 March, for the first time since the signing of NCA on 15 October 2015, the signatory and non-signatory groups of EAOs met to find ways on how to work together to further the cause of the ethnic nationalities as a whole.

The United Wa State Army (UWSA) also hosted a meeting of the northern EAOs, from 26 to 28 March, to discuss about the peace process and the ongoing armed conflict between the Ta'ang national Liberation Army/ Palaung State Liberation Front (TNLA/ PSLF) and RCSS.

Parallel to all these, the interaction between the NLD and two major ethnic political parties the Arakan National party (ANP) and Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) have taken place with different outcomes.

NCA signatories

The NCA signatory EAOs met in Chaing Mai, Thailand, from 24 to 26 March and issued a seven point statement which includes:

1.                  Convening the meeting of NCA signatory EAOs, together with observers and technical advisors, totalling 79 persons;

2.                  Reassessment of NCA implementation since the signing;

3.                  Welcomes the new government for its peace commitment and the EAOs readiness to cooperate:

4.                  The necessity for all EAOs to participate and be represented in the forthcoming 2^nd Union Peace Conference;

5.                  Deeply believed the need for all EAOs' enthusiastic participation until agreement to form federal union is achieved through political negotiations;

6.                  The formation of EAO Peace Process Steering Team (EAO PPST); and

7.                  Pledges to adhere to the NCA and cooperate with the new regime and the Tatmadaw (Military) to implement the agreement.

UNFC

The UNFC held a six day seminar on federal constitution from 21 to 26 March in Chaing Mai, Thailand, facilitated by the Ethnic Nationalities Affairs Center (ENAC), a resource center supporting the peace process through policy development.

The discussion was said to touch upon the controversial issue of eight states and fourteen states and divisions (regions), demands of new national state-level administration, aside from being briefed by

Sai Kyaw Nyunt, a representative of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) political party coalition and a delegate to the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) about federalism discussions in January’s UPDJC meeting.

But the most crucial input, which the UNFC members walked away with was the approach of the ethnic struggle in a new perspective.

The amendment procedure of the constitution through peace agreement treaty delivered by David Williams seems to have dawn on many of the attendees.

He pointed out that the Section 436 of the military-drafted constitution made it impossible to be amended, for it needs to gather 75% of the union parliamentarians' vote to first sail through the first hurdle, before the amendment motion could overcome a more than 50% vote of the country's eligible electorate count, and not just the actual participating electorate, to amend it. In addition, since the Bamar would feel that giving more political power to the ethnic nationalities is tantamount to sharing its decision-making power, his paper's suggestion would be faced with rejection.

The gist of the argument is that it is legal and doable to amend the constitution through arrangement outside the constitutional setting, even if it is not explicitly written in it. In other words, a peace agreement is instrumental to change or rewrite the constitution, without having to go through the procedure written in the constitution, if it serve the purpose to end the cause of internal conflict or civil war. For the abnormal situation like civil war needs special procedure to resolve it. Therefore, to resolve the cause of war, constitutional law could be amend by making use of the peace agreement.

NCA signatories meet UNFC

On 27 March, the NCA signatory groups of eight, represented by the Delegation for EAO Unity (DEV) headed by Kwe Htoo Win, KNU Secretary, and Khaing Soe Naing Aung met Khu Oo Reh, head of the UNFC's Delegation Political Negotiation (DPN) and his team met to find ways to work together, in the ongoing peace process.

This was the first meeting of signatory and non-signatory groups of NCA, since the treaty signing ceremony on 15 October 2015.

The meeting is being termed as unofficial and said that no agreement have been made.

Team leader and UNFC Secretary Khu Oo Reh said: “To be frank, it is just an unofficial meeting. We haven't made any agreement. The main thing is that we ponder on how to cooperate on various issues. We exchange views on possible future meeting and only after enough time is given, would we be able to make decision (agreement).”

UWSA held meeting

The northern EAOs comprising of Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA), Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA), TNLA/PSLF, Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) and UWSA met in Pangkham (Panghsang) from 26 to 28 March, totalling 34 participants. The two point statement released at the end of the meeting agreed to negotiate with the new government as soon as possible and urged the two warring parties TNLA and RCSS to peacefully resolve the conflict, adding that if one of the party continues to prolong the conflict, the ethnic resistance forces will prevent it from happening.

ANP, SNLD and Chief Ministers' line up

As the NLD, on 28 March, made known it Chief Ministers' line up for the 14 States and Regions, the ANP demand that it be given the Chief Minister post and opportunity to form government came to naught. Consequently, the party declared that it would follow its prior decision to be an opposition, rather than work together with the NLD.

On 28 March, following U Nyi Pu's appointment as Chief Minister for the Ararkan State, U Phoe Min, Vice-Chairman of ANP and as well, Deputy-Speaker of the Arakan Parliament confirmed with the BBC that the party would stand by its previous position of going into opposition.

But SNLD, which has been a long time ally of the NLD, reportedly reject the offer to participate in union and state level administrations, stating that it has to do a lot of non-parliamentary works to push for peace process, constitutional amendment and federal union realization, it don't have enough man power to share for the administration purpose.

Sai Leik, the SNLD spokesman, when asked by the RFA recently on why his party rejected the NLD offer to participate in the union and state level governments, replied: “We have discussion with NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi personally invited us to participate in union and Shan State level administrations. We discussed this intensively with our CEC and came to the conclusion that we  were not ready to take up such responsibilities, but have sent out directive to cooperate with the NLD to our MPs in Kachin and Shan States parliamentary undertakings. We are not ready for governmental responsibility, due to our political goal, undertakings and time constraint.”

Regarding the question of SNLD demand for Chief Minister post on several occasions in the past, he stressed that his Chairman Hkun Htun Oo previously said in interviews that since the Shan State parliament responsibility  has been taken by the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), SNLD should be given the chance of State government administration, but never officially asked for it.

Perspective

The power transition would likely be over soon as the end of Thein Sein era is closing its chapter. But the Aung San Suu Kyi's national reconciliation government formation although enthusiastically hailed by sympathizers and well-meaning supporters is far from flawless.

The military might be parroting that it will support the democratization and multi-party system, but the scenarios suggest that it is not that rosy. Suu Kyi didn't attend the Armed Force Day or Tatmadaw Day for there had been no proper invitation, according to NLD sources, although she used to attend it several times during the last few years. Also when Suu Kyi was meeting the designated eighteen Ministers that would lead various ministries, giving suggestions on how they should go about their jobs, the military controlled Ministers of Defence, Home and Border Affairs failed to show up.

The reconciliation on ethnic front although it would seem quite promising, a closer look shows that this is really not the case.

The ANP was deeply disappointed by the NLD's appointment of its MP, U Nyi Pu and refusal to allow the demand of Chief Minster post, including the formation of the State government.

The SNLD, in contrary, politely decline the offer to be part of the Union and State administrations citing that outside of parliamentary undertakings to realize its political goal, but the reality might be its inability to secure a kind of “coalition agreement” on issues of equal status, rights of self-determination, federal union, constitutional amendment and peace process from the NLD.

As for the EAOs, the signatory and non-signatory groups are unable to reforge unity after the signing of NCA, on 15 October 2015, by the eight EAOs headed by KNU and RCSS. The UNFC refused to comply with the signing, arguing that it was not all-inclusive.

Although the EAOs are in a haste to restart the peace process and political dialogue, the interaction with the NLD regime is in a pending mode and it will be sometimes before the momentum picks up again, as the governmental transition needs to be settled first.

All in all, the mentioning of EAOs as “insurgents” by the Commander-in-Chief in his Tatmadaw Day's speech, touched the raw nerves, for they viewed themselves as representatives of their people,   demanding for their birthright self-determination and equality in a federal setup.

In addition, the reconciliation move of Suu Kyi on ethnic facet might now be marred by Bamar chauvinist tendency, in the eyes of the non-Bamar ethnic political parties, as NLD has appointed Chief Ministers for all fourteen States and Regions from its own party.

Observers said that Arakan's ANP and Shan State's SNLD, where the former came out first with 22 seats and the latter achieving second place with 25 seats, in their respective states, were not given the Chief Minister post, even NLD had won less seats.

The NLD explanation  was that it was acting in accordance with its grand strategy.

For now the political landscape is extremely convoluted and no one could really predict on how it will develop. But people are pinning their hope that somehow the new NLD regime will pull it through, surviving the 100 days honey moon, learning period of trail and error, and comes out of it in one piece, to strive for the betterment of the country.