President Thein Sein regime is hurriedly implementing the peace process procedure before the end of it's legislative period on 31 March 2016.

According to presidential office declaration of 18 December, Union Peace Convention will begin on 12 January 2016.

The declaration said that the convention will start in order to achieve national reconciliation, to end armed conflict and to resolve political problems peacefully.

On 15 October 2015, the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) was signed between the government and the 8 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and on 15 December 2015, framework for political dialogue was finished according to the promises of NCA, to begin with the political dialogue.

The participation of the political dialogue will include 150 from the government and parliament, 150 from the Burma army or Tatmadaw, 150 from EAOs, 150 from political parties, 50 from ethnic nationalities leaders and  50 invitees from academic circle, including appropriate individuals.

While Thein Sein claimed that it is actually acting according to the timeline prescribed by the NCA and wanted to leave a peace process that has already started as legacy for the next incoming regime, many were not convinced and presumed it is more to do with influencing the peace process  beyond his legislative period.

Opinion on Union Peace Convention

Political consultation at different levels, other than the Union Peace Convention, would be known as political dialogue, according to the NCA and framework for political dialogue.

At long last, the UN decades-long endorsement of tripartite dialogue, between the Government of Myanmar, which includes the military (Tatmadaw), the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and the political parties, was conveniently disregarded and a seven party dialogue forum is being adopted by the Union Political Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC). Thanks to the National League for Democracy (NLD) representative U Nyan Win's solicitation that was enthusiastically participating at the meeting on 15 December 2015.

The framework, which is intended to contribute to the development of a federal union, was designed over the last eight months during a series of meetings in Naypyitaw, the country’s capital, according to the Pyidaungsu Institute. The draft was written by the UPDJC, which is made up of 8 ethnic signatories to Burma’s  NCA, the military and government representatives.

Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) Chairperson Khun Htun Oo criticized Burma’s draft Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD)on 16 December for lack of inclusiveness, as ethnic representatives from non-state armed groups were absent in the decision-making body of UPDJC.

“This way, it will be like the Two Trees Convention that was held by the military in the past,” the 72-year-old former political prisoner said, referring to Burma’s National Convention, a process initiated in 1993 to write a new national constitution and which ended with the much-criticized 2008 Constitution.

“It is more like a conference during the military government’s time,” he said of the current political dialogue draft.

Echoing Khun Htun Oo, Nai Han Tha vice chairman of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), the nine ethnic armed resistance organizations (EAROs) which it prefers to be called, said: “This government has only a short span of time left and the dialogue won't be finished. Dialogue needs quite a lot of time and participation of the organizations are also not all-inclusive. It looks like, in order to gain privilege, the government is pushing to do things within the short time available. The 8 EAOs is also following (the government's lead) without having any benefit.”

Ironically, Chairman Khun Myint Htun of Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), who is with the 8 EAOs that signed the government initiated NCA, said: “Only when brothers that still have not sign (the NCA) could be included, it will be more meaningful. Real political problems would be able to be resolved through wide comprehensive negotiations. It won't be easy to be successful, without the participation of the non-signatory organizations.”

Problem areas in implementation

According to SHAN report of 17 December 2015, political observers are of the opinion that the recent political framework, which the military has 150 representatives that could cast their votes  as a bloc together, with some votes from the parliament, government sector, USDP's MPs and military affiliated political parties would be at an advantage position.

Apart from privileged position of the military, the participation quota is relatively in order, with the exception of 150 for EAOs, 50 each for ethnic leaders and so-called suitable, appropriate invitees.

It is not clear if the 8 EAOs will occupy all the 150 seats or at least leave them vacant for the non-signatories for eventual inclusion at a later date, when problems could be resolved to sign and enter the NCA, with the new NLD government.

Also regarding the 50 ethnic leaders, it is not at all transparent if it means to include the non-signatory EAOs or just community leaders that have nothing to do with the resistance armies, government militias, political parties and government apparatus.

Again for the 50 suitable, appropriate invitees  it is not clear, who would be eligible, as there is no known criteria for the moment to determine or how to choose the candidates, according to Khuensai Jaiyane, director of the Pyidaungsu Institute.

Perhaps the most difficult hindrance to the process could be the FPD's Chapter 6, Sections 6.2, which writes: “Out of the issues that have been tabled at the Union Peace Convention, federalism-based union issues, country's security issues and security sector reform issues, including other important issues, decisions could be made with more than 75 percent affirmative votes within each individual group and more than 75 percent of all convention participants.” (Unofficial translation by the writer from “The Framework for Political Dialogue”)

This is exactly the same as when the NLD and like-minded MPs tried to push through the constitutional amendment within the parliament a few months back, which was shattered, due to the prescription that constitution amendment needs the approval of more than 75 percent or three-fourths of all members of parliament (MPs).

However, it is not clear if the phrase “within each individual group” applies to UPDJC that has three components – 8 EAOs, regime and the political parties, each with 16 representatives, 48 altogether -, or each group of seven party setup – the government, parliament, military, EAOs, ethnic leaders and appropriate invitees – that are in the process of assembling together in January 2016.

Back to the root of the problem

President Thein Sein's excuse that the NCA is more of a political assurance than all-inclusiveness is in fact an acknowledgement that the real intended goal of being nationwide has actually been shattered.

As mentioned time and again, the heart of the problem is constitutional crisis that has been plaguing the country since 1962 military coup. The two constitutions – 1974 Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) constitution and 2008 Military-drafted constitution -  that followed were also one party unitary and presidential unitary system respectively, which failed to address the ethnic nationalities political aspirations.

Nyaungnabin national convention that took some 14 years produced the 2008 constitution. It is popularly known as Nargis constitution, as the constitutional referendum was conducted shortly after the devastated Cyclone Nargis that killed thousands. The eventual conducted referendum was manipulated by the military clique designed to serve the military class. As such, it is often argued that rewriting anew would better serve the people than amending it, which would take years if Nyaungnabin convention would be taken as an example.

Apart from that the military's claim of its constitutional endorsement by the people with over 90 percent votes is almost impossible in the aftermath of Nargis catastrophe. And the real point that the military-drafted constitution neither was the real endorsement of the people nor serve the people is now brushed aside, so as not to anger the military clique and find satisfaction in the improved political space and cooperation in the present political arena.

NLD's law expert U Ko Ni, Khun Htun Oo, Min Ko Niang and many others have said that amending the constitution is a waste of time and for it serves only one purpose and that is to delay the change of system from presidential unitary setup to genuine federalism.

But if the only way to national reconciliation is through the amendment of the military-drafted constitution, all will be in for a long process that could take years to complete for this would mean a constant test of strength of different groups on political aspirations in actual realpolitik configuration.

The four major groups - Tatmadaw, NLD, EAOs,  political parties - will however try to determine the system of governance in a variety of cooperation setting.

Whether the two Bamar groups of NLD and Tatmadaw coalition, together with the 8 EAOs would push through the present presidential unitary political system with minimal to maximum devolution, short of genuine federalism or the NLD, in collaboration with the non-signatories EAOs and like-minded political parties, is going to strive for a genuine federal union is now still an open question, which would be answered in the course of time.

This is not to say that it is the only possible cooperation trend. Of course, the coalition-bulding within the Union Peace Convention could still be configured in  variety of ways, other than the one mentioned above.

Nevertheless, it is important at this point that the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi uphold their 2015 Election  Manifesto, which was spelled out regarding ethnic affairs and internal peace as follows:

The following actions will be taken for ethnic affairs and internal peace:

1. Work towards a peaceful, prosperous and durable Union, through solidarity with all ethnic

groups.

2. Hold political dialogue based on the Panglong spirit in order to address the roots of internal armed conflict and enable people to live in security and tranquillity.

3. Strive for the establishment of a genuine federal democratic union based on the principles of

freedom, equal rights and self-determination.

4. Lay down transparent projects for the balanced development of all the States and Regions.

5. Work to ensure a fair distribution across the country of the profits from natural resource

extraction, in accordance with the principles of a federal union.

6. Resolve problems between ethnic groups through dialogue based on mutual respect.

Finally, Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD should not allow themselves to be boxed into the Thein Sein regime's peace process structure without resistance or critical questions, but stick to the previously declared position of making use of the NCA and FPD good points and change those that are not suitable for all-inclusiveness and fair distribution of participation quota in the Union Peace Convention, following the political power transfer at the end of March 2016.

The Contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SUD) – Editor