Aung San Suu Kyi, the President, Commander-in-Chief and war in ethnic states
As the dust settled and the
elections' end result made known, the government in waiting and the people at
large are again burdened with the worries of a pending transfer of power that
should take place in three months time, according to the constitution.
Given such a lengthy period of
waiting and zero experience in the regime transfer undertaking, Aung San Suu
Kyi. shortly after the National League for Democracy (NLD) landslide win of the
elections became irreversible, has officially written three separate letters of
request for a speedy meeting to the President Thein Sein, Commander in Chief
Min Aung Hlaing and House speaker Thura Shwe Mann, in order to map out a smooth
governmental transition.
Thura Shwe Mann complied to her
request almost immediately, but the President and the Commander-in-Chief have
delayed the meeting, stating that the union election commission (UEC) still
need to wrap up the electoral process officially, until both recently said that
they would meet her on the 2nd of December.
In relation to this pressing and
crucial transitional issue, two separate interviews of the country's
major stakeholders, Aung San Suu Kyi and Min Aung Hlaing, a courtesy
home call on Aung San Suu Kyi by the former strongman Senior-General Than
Shwe's grandson, and a visit of the 8 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that
have signed the government initiated nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) to
the NLD office need to be evaluated, in order to determine the country's
political climate and which way the political wind is blowing.
Crucial and undeniably linked to
the issues of political transition and national reconciliation is the controversial armed ethnic conflict in Shan
and Kachin States. Especially the ongoing military offensives of the Burma Army
(Tatmadaw) in central Shan State, which is seen as a deliberate attempt to
create a two-tiered society - a relatively free and democratic one in heartland
Burma and the other a military occupied ethnic homelands under the totalitarian
rule.
Aung San Suu Kyi interview
with RFA
On 26 November, in a fortnightly
RFA program “Democracy rough journey and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi”, she spelled out
a general NLD guideline on how her future administration would likely be
formed.
She said her government would be
a national reconciliation one manned not only by the NLD members, but also with
ethnic leaders and able non-NLD personnel, apart from stressing the importance
of achieving peace and ending the war in ethnic states; adhering to the spirit
of Panglong, which according to her should be the cornerstone of any government
in Burma; instilling the rule of law, coupled with moral and ethical awareness
to uphold it; and that she and the NLD could not do this tremendous task alone,
but needs help from all quarters.
She also complained that
governmental change of three months is a long transitional period, but the
people are patiently enduring and waiting for the long aspired moment to come.
In the said RFA interview Suu Kyi
touched on who would be involved, how the elected NLD representatives should
posture and national reconciliation would be moulded.
She said: “In the to be formed
government, non-NLD ethnic nationalities will be included. Hopefully, others
that could benefit the country will also participate.”
On defining the role of the MPs,
she stressed: “(They) should think, (it is) not to lead but to serve the
people. Don't go and tell the representatives that they are leaders, (I) absolutely
don't want to encourage such ideas.”
Regarding her stance on national
reconciliation, “(We) won't take it all because (we've) won. But (will work)
with the spirit of sharing and cooperation with all together. Of course the NLD
will lead, the people has clearly given us the mandate as we have asked for.”
In an answer on how she thought
about the ongoing war in Shan and Kachin States, she said: “This is not good.
How can the civil war be good for the country? The election have just been
finished, but it looks like that peace is still far away. The main point is
that civil war terribly troubled the people. Have you seen the photos from Shan
State? You media people know how the people have to endure.”
She elaborated that first peace
has to returned to the ethnic states, followed by development, which has a wide
range covering healthcare, education, social sectors and culture. But the most
important thing is the union spirit, which should be spread far and wide to
become deeply rooted in the society.
Touching on the NCA and Myanmar
Peace Center's (MPC) deliberation on the process, she said: “To continue the
work of ceasefire with the political framework, negotiation should start now.
Because we want to carry on with some
good things that the MPC has done and change those that need to be changed.
That's why meeting soon with the people
that ought to be met (to discuss) the issues surrounding the country is a good
thing, not for the sake of power transfer, but to smooth them out step-by-step
quickly, so that when the time comes for transfer of power according to the law
and all issues that need to be tackle could be immediately done, including the
peace process.”
EAOs meet NLD
Following the repeated request of
the 8 EAOs, headed by Kwe Htoo Win of Karen National Union (KNU), met the NLD
on 26 November.
The five EAOs involved were the KNU, the Chin National
Front, the Pa-Oh National Liberation Organisation, the All Burma Students’
Democratic Front and the Arakan Liberation Party. They were among eight groups
that had signed the NCA with the current USDP-Military regime on October 15,
which Aung San Suu Kyi had refused to sign as a witness, stating that it was
not all-inclusive.
The NLD was represented by senior officials U Win Htein, U
Han Thar Myint and U Myo Yan Naung Thein. NLD leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi did
not attend the talks.
U Win Htein said the NLD officials told the ethnic groups
not to worry and that the party would continue to support the peace process
after taking office next March.
“We explained to them that since the foundation of the NLD
in 1988, national reconciliation has been the most important objective for the
party,” he added.
But stressed that the NLD cannot accept the political
representation of the non-elected parties in the representative body of 16
members, which is now the case.
U Win Htein said numerous small parties are either the
creation or under the sway of the regime to spread the vote in the elections
and all were not even elected.
The Union Political Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) has 16
members each from the EAOs, the government and the political parties, making it
a total of 48 members in all.
War in Shan State
Two days before the elections, on
6 October 2015, a large scale offensive by the Burma Army (Tatmadaw) comprising
of some 20 battalions launched an offensive in central Shan State. The
intention was to seize the territories of Shan State Progressive Party/Shan
State Army (SSPP/SSA) in Kehsi, Mong
Nawng, Mong Hsu and Tangyan townships, using heavy artillery, jet fighters and
helicopter gunship air support. Besides
targeting the SSA positions, also indiscriminate shelling and bombing were
directed at inhabited civilian areas, displacing thousands of Shan, Palaung,
Lisu and Lahu people causing a new humanitarian crisis. For the time being, the
refugees now numbering some 10,000 still could not return, due to the
prevailing military tension between the two warring parties.
The SSPP/SSA signed a bilateral
ceasefire agreement with the government in February 2012. But in the years that
follows, there have been hundreds of minor skirmishes between the SSA and the
Tatmadaw, failing to secure a durable truce.
On 23 November, Union
Peace-making Working Committee (UPWC) and SSPP/SSA discussed 8 negotiation points,
which included the latter withdrawal from its positions from the southern side
of Mong Nwang – Mong Hsu stretch of motor way to the southern part, among
others.
Latest news coming out from Shan
sources said the SSPP/SSA agreed in principle on the negotiation points, but
have asked to work out the details on demarcation lines on the map together.
The Tatmadaw is also said to be eager to comply with the detailed
implementation.
Shan civilian-based organizations
have issued a press release on 26 November on the the plight of the Shan
people, due to the Tatmadaw's military offensive in central Shan State. Part of
the release writes:
- During
its latest large-scale offensive to seize Shan ceasefire territories,
Naypyitaw troops have been launching repeated air and ground missile
attacks on densely populated civilian areas. From November 9 to 12,
fighter aircraft and artillery rained bombs on 6,000 civilians in the town
of Mong Nawng, as well as on Wan Saw village in Mong Hsu, where over 1,500
displaced villagers were sheltering.
·
These attacks, and abuses including shooting
and rape of villagers, have displaced over 10,000 people from Ke See, Mong Hsu
and Mong Nawng townships. Most are sheltering in makeshift camps, relying on
donations from local communities. There has been little sign of aid from
international agencies in Yangon.
·
The offensive, which began on October 6, was
taking place while election monitors and journalists from across the globe were
in Burma to observe the recent polls. Yet most news reports have only praised
the “peaceful” nature of the elections, and no foreign governments have
publicly raised concerns about the attacks and war crimes being committed by
Burmese government troops.
Min Aung Hlaing sending mixed
signal
The interview conducted by Lally Weymouth a senior
associate editor for The Washington Post a mixed signals from the
commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing could be detected regarding the general
attitude of the Tatmadaw, including the political transitional issue.
Min Aung Hlaing has just iterated
his usual position and not much of a difference from his previous interviews.
He said that he is ready to
answer all of Aung San Suu Kyi's questions, when they meet in December. To sum up, he confirmed that he
support President Thein Sein's position that the regime would help to smoothly
conduct the governmental transfer of power. But regarding the constitutional
amendments of Section 436, including a clause 59(f) that would enable Aung San
Suu Kyi to become President, he indicated that nothing could be done.
In connection with this, he stressed: “We - the armed forces
- favour national politics, not partisan politics. We are not rigid on the
constitution . . . . We have already signed a nationwide cease-fire agreement.
But we need a mature and stable political situation in our country. We need to
gradually change. Right now we are not ready.”
In answering the question of what would he need to make him
feel comfortable to turn more power over to the civilians, he replied: “It would
depend on the stability of our country and people understanding the practice of
democracy. Some countries have faced problems as they become democracies.”
Thus, it is clear that the election result will be honoured
and power transfer will take place, albeit the military won't be supportive
where constitutional amendment is concerned.
Than Shwe's grandson visit
Aung San Suu Kyi
Aung San Suu Kyi recent meeting
with Pho La Pyae, also known as Nay Shwe Thway Aung, who is the still
influential, former dictator Senior-General Than Shwe's grandson have invoked
curiosity for Burma watchers and stakeholders alike.
As a result, speculation is rife
that the military as a whole might be willing to compromise for a smooth
transition.
General Than Shwe is the former
chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), who has kept a low
profile since retiring from the political scene following Burma’s general
election in 2010. Senior government officials – former military men - see him as a father figure and have spoken
with reverence of the former junta head but maintain he is no longer involved
in politics.
On 26 November, Suu Kyi confirmed
the meeting but declined to say anything more. But Nay Shwe Thway Aung which he already posted
in his Facebook earlier stating “Tonight will be a historic one,” has gone
viral, speculating that General Than Shwe might have met the Lady.
He later posted on the Facebook
on November 26: “I don’t want to make everyone puzzled any more. I am glad that
she was warm to me when we met. I will do what I can for the benefit of the
country. I hope people will be glad about the news.”
The meeting has been seen in a
positive light of smooth political transition, both by the Rangoon-based
political commentator Yan Myo Thein and an NLD central committee member U Win
Htein.
Analysis
Aung San Suu Kyi's interview with
RFA could be seen as the NLD spelling out its commitment and with whom the
national reconciliation government is to be formed, while Commander-in-Chief's
interview with the Washington Post confirmed that political power transfer will
happen, although to back the constitutional reform is not in the military's
agenda.
It could be said that the two
interviews have given us a clearer picture on where the two rival parties stand, which should be welcomed.
As for the 8 EAOs, the meeting
with the NLD is to secure their bargaining position when Aung San Suu Kyi
government come into being in March 2016. They are afraid that the structure
and committees formed by them will be altered. Most important is to assuage the
fact that Suu Kyi sees them as toeing the appeasement line for not adhering to
all-inclusiveness like the United Nationalities federal Council (UNFC) members,
who are non-signatories of the government initiated partial-ceasefire
agreement, dubbed NCA, on 15 October 2015. It looks like, the 8 EAOs have
miscalculated for they thought the USDP would at least would win enough vote,
be able to form a coalition government with the help of the appointed military
faction and continue the peace process. It is now very likely that the game
plan will be altered and players will be replaced by the new incoming regime.
Than Shwe's grandson visit of Suu
Kyi could also be viewed in a positive light, as they old General is the unofficial
head of the military, even though no body openly talks about it. As such, it
could be viewed as a good-will approach from the part of the military to
cooperate for the benefit of the country, although it could also be seen as an
insurance security approach for General's immediate family members and the
military class as a whole, if it is not only a tactical move to confused the
enemy.
The war in Shan State is a
deliberate attempt to create an atmosphere of war, so that emergency rule could
be invoked, like in Arakan State and Kokang Self Administrative Zone. The
Tatmadaw could expand the move the whole country over in all ethnic states, if
it decides to do so for any reason, creating two parallel societies - a
relatively free democratic society in Burmese heartland and oppressed ethnic
homelands rules by a totalitarian military personnel.
Of course, whether the military
will pull through such a stunt in a big way to show that it is calling the
shots and disrupt the NLD regime's to rule; or employ emergency rule in small
pockets, where there are resistance movements,
is an open question that it has to decide.
But the near future political
power transfer will definitely happen for a variety of reasons. They are: the
Union Solidarity and Development Party-Military (USDP-Military) clique is not
ready to forsake the international community, risks another various sanctions
from the West and pulls the country down like during the aftermath of 1990
elections; afraid that the uncontrollable social unrest would occur if it goes
against the overwhelming public endorsement of the NLD, besides not being sure of the military's full
support; and not willing to go back into the ambit of China by nullifying the
election result; apart from wanting to honour its given promises to uphold the
outcome of the elections and conduct a smooth transition of power.
Whatever the case, the commitment
that this crucial task of transferring political power would be fulfilled by
both the President and the Commander-in-Chief is a blessing, for the first step
to real democratization and reconciliation is now within reach and everyone
should welcome this noble development.
The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic
Union (SDU)-Editor
Tags: Opinion
