Panghsang Summit Meeting, Joint Monitoring Committee and Military Offensives
As the 11 non-signatory ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) met in Panghsang, also
known as Pangkham, the United Wa State Army's (UWSA) capital, from 1 to 3
November,on the heels of the
Joint Monitoring Committee (JMC) meeting from 29 to 31 October, in Yangon, to draw
up a military Code of Conduct (CoC) between the 8 EAOs, which have signed the
government initiated nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), and the Burma Army,
the war in Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) controlled
areas that have started with the government offensives, on 6 October, goes on
unabated, while most are busy preparing for the elections, scheduled to be held
on 8 November.
Although it seems that these happenings hardly have
anything to do with each other, a closer look shows that they are, in fact, a
chain of process with linkage with ramification that cannot be separated from
one another.
Joint Monitoring Committee
Firstly, the partial-ceasefire, dubbed NCA, which is
initiated by the regime, is guided by the treaty's guideline and accordingly,
through the Joint Implementation Coordination Meetings after the NCA signing on
15 October, the Joint Monitoring Committee (JMC) and the Union Political
Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) were formed.
The meeting, attended by the EAOs and the regime,
formed a Union-level JMC, in a three day meeting from 29 to 31 October, and
hoped to finish and finalize the military CoC within a month, according to the
Myanmar Peace Center (MPC).
According to the press conference, the Union-level
joint monitoring committee has been formed at the three-day meeting with Lt-Gen
Yar Pyae appointed as chairman, Maj gen Saw Isaac Po of Karen National Union (KNU)
as first vice-chairman, Dr Sui Khar of Chin National Front (CNF) as Secretary
and Col Wunna Aung as Secretary-1.2.
Apart from that, the two sides have agreed, an
honourable civilians would be elected to the post of vice-chairman (2)
The Myanmar Times report of 1 November wrote that
boundaries had been set with some groups earlier but with others it is going to
start soon, said the Director of MPC at a press conference after a Joint
Monitoring Committee’s first meeting in Yangon. He said the mechanisms will
allow both sides to deal with possible clashes during the transition period
before the monitoring process comes into effect.
Restoration Council of Shan State's (RCSS) advisor and
Director of the Pyidaungsu Institute for Peace and Dialogue, Khuensai Jaiyen, who attended the JMC, at the end of the
meeting said that the public would be encouraged to involve in the ceasefire
monitoring process and that there are many difficulties to overcome, in making
the mechanism works.
He said: “At the moment, only Union-level JMC could be
formed. Formation of State and Regional JMCs are still needed. Under them
Local-level organizations also have to be formed. These are difficulties that
(we) have to encounter. It is because we have to build a non-existence
mechanism and in doing so, we have to try to involve the public itself.
Although this issue seems to be easy, in practice it won't be and has to take
time.”
While the terms of reference (TOR) for JMCs should
take a month to be finalized and approved, the political dialogue will have to
begin within 90 days of signing the NCA. It is not clear if the time schedule
could be kept, according to the treaty signed on 15 October.
Panghsang Summit Meeting
Secondly, the Panghsang summit meeting, to map out on
how to go about with the political bargaining for the EAOs, was called for the
second time – the first was in May this year - by the UWSA, on the heels of the
Union-level JMC formation.
The 11 EAOs that didn't sign the NCA on 15 October,
met from 1 to 3 November, just a few days before the nationwide elections.
The groups participated in Panghsang meet were Kachin
Independence Army (KIA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA),
Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), National Democratic Alliance Army
(NDAA), SSPP, New Mon State Party (NMSP), Karenni National Progressive Party
(KNPP), Arakan Army (AA), Karen National Defence Organization (KNDO), Kayan
Newland Party (KNLP) and UWSA. The National Socialist Council of
Nagaland-Kaplan (NSCN -K) was not able to attend the meeting, due to the long
distance, according to the host of the meeting.
On the first day, at the capital of the
semi-autonomous Wa Special Region in north-east Shan State, Panghsang, opening
speech of Bao Youxiang, the chairman of the UWSA was read out by a
spokesperson.
The speech thanked the ethnic leaders for enduring the
hard struggle for the future of the country, despite their advanced age and
praised them for their noble deeds. However, during about half a year, since
May, the situation has not progressed as the ethnic leaders have hoped for and
instead, the Burma army, also known as Tatmadaw, has continuously employed
military pressures on some of the EAOs. Ten of thousands have to flee their
homes, endure hunger and become victims of contagious disease. And although
nationwide ceasefire negotiation has taken about two years, the main basic
demand of the EAOs was not entertained, resolved and no promise was also given
to do so.
It went on to point out that the constitutional
amendment was rejected and by steadfastly clinging to the 2008 Constitution,
the regime has systematically controlled the EAOs. Although all-inclusive
ceasefire signing should have occurred, it has not materialized till today.
The speech spelled out the UWSA position as:
1.
Endorses the holding of the nation’s November
elections with transparency, equality and smoothness
2.
Urges any in-coming government from any party,
after the election, to respect and take seriously the ethnic minorities rights
and privileges and solve the present problems through political means and not
militarily
3.
Determines to cooperate with any new government
from any party for the implementation of peaceful negotiation, as soon as
possible
4.
Urges the new government to strive for national
reconciliation and genuine federal union, with Panglong spirit
It finally called on all EAOs to strive in unison for
the country's development, ethnic nationalities' basic rights and federal union
based on Panglong spirit.
Echoing almost the UWSA position, the closing 7 point
statement of the EAOs leaders' second summit meeting of 3 November outlined the
following:
1.
Urges that the 2015 nationwide elections be
transparently, freely and fairly conducted, under the auspices of international
organizations including the U.N.;
2.
Urges the present government to stop the
Tatmadaw's offensives on EAOs during the transitional period and develop
opportunity for national reconciliation;
Urges any in-coming government from any party, after
the election, to respect and take seriously the ethnic minorities rights and
privileges and solve the present problems through political means and not
militarily;
3.
Wishes to cooperate with the new government
stemming from the general elections for the implementation of nationwide
political discussion, as soon as possible;
4.
Encourages the in-coming new government to
relentlessly strive for the rebuilding of a federal union based on national
reconciliation, equality and rights of self-determination through Panglong
Promises and Spirit;
5.
Urges, in order to resolve the military conflict
in the northern and eastern Burma, the government, Tatmadaw, concerned EAOs and
Chinese government including Chinese military personnel by forming a
representative organization (committee), so that problems along the China-Burma
border could be resolved, leading to peace and tranquillity;
6.
Agrees that the EAOs employ coordinating
officials, so that unity and mutual coordination could be established and
promoted to a higher level;
7.
Urges the in-coming, future government and the
country's leadership to cooperate with EAOs, parliament and political forces
outside the parliament, in the amendment of the 2008 Constitution. (Note:
Translated by the writer from “Ethnic Armed Organizations' Leadership Second
Round Table Summit Meeting” – Pangkham, 3 November 2015)
Aung Myint spokesman of the UWSA interpreted Chairman
Bao Youxiang's speech saying: “Our ethnic armed groups need to prepare for how
to deal with future political challenges. There will be many political
arguments and political attacks, but there will be no more bloodshed from this
political fight. Our ethnic minority groups need to have unity and then
confront these political challenges,” according to The Irrawaddy report of 2 October.
Touching on the same issue, Nai Han Tha, Vice-Chairman
of the NMSP, who is one of the negotiator in the Panghsang summit meeting,
said: “ Whoever comes to power, resolving internal peace cannot be left out.
Without resolution, our country wouldn't change and can't be peaceful. That's
why (we) hope and would try to negotiate with any in-coming government. But it
depends on the opinion of the government. In case they don't want to negotiate,
it is another thing. (But) we will keep on trying because our country's
problems could only be resolved through political means.”
Military Offensives on SSPP/SSA
Thirdly, the Burma army or Tatmadaw offensives on
SSPP/SSA is a direct political fallout stemming from the refusal of not signing
the government initiated NCA on 15 October, although provocative attacks by the
Tatmadaw have already started since 6 October.
The military offensives abruptly escalated after the
NCA signing and have been ongoing ever since, forcing some 6000 villagers to
flee their homes. Besides, the human causalities were said to be in hundred from the
government side and some 20 or so from the SSPP/SSA quarters, according to Shan
sources.
On top of this, the Union Election Commission (UEC)
declared four Townships – Mong Hsu, Keh, Tangyan and Hopang - to be no-vote
areas, where the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) is strong and
sure to win the elections. It should be noted that the SSPP/SSA openly endorsed
the SNLD, while the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP), the rival
party, is rumoured and even hinted to be a possible coalition partner of the
regime's party.
And thus, it looks like that the regime is achieving a
double effect by waging war and turning
the SNLD political power base into no-vote areas and at the same time,
pressuring the SSPP/SSA to yield to the regime's initiated NCA.
On 30 October, Sao Pang Fa, head of the SSPP/SSA
issued a statement in Shan language addressing the rank and file of the Shan
State Army to be ready for the Tatmadaw's onslaught and to resist “spear
against spear and sword against sword”.
Assessment
The JMC outlook is not rosy, given only some 10,000
out of 100,000 EAOs' troopers have inked the partial-ceasefire, amounting to
only 10% of the whole resistance forces, and the country effectively been
categorized into war and ceasefire zones.
It is a military CoC, which would not cover all the
majority EAOs' controlled areas and the overlapping territories among the EAOs
would make it hard to implement the ceasefire for the JMC.
The real flaw of the whole process is not being a
nationwide and all-inclusive ceasefire agreement, while the lack of third
neutral party, with the teeth of enforcement, to monitor the ceasefire, would
be the weakest point in trying to make the partial-ceasefire works.
For now, Panghsang summit meeting is fixed only to
negotiate with the in-coming, new regime and is gearing up to build ethnic
unity and get ready for political bargaining phase. But unconfirmed news, said
to be stemming from Burma and Thai military quarters, said that the China's
People's Liberation Army has recently shipped tons of ammunition and military
hardware to Panghsang.
If this is really the case, the mini-Cold-War might be
in the making and all concerned stakeholders should reassess their positions,
if it is worthwhile to let the country plunge into such a pit hole.
While the regime, in trying to solicit the West
support, should not overplay by conducting military adventures in the ethnic
homelands, with the pretext of protecting the country's sovereignty and
national unity, and trumpeting the communist-ghost-threat rhetoric, like
President Thein Sein had done just a few days ago, while camouflaging his
election campaign for the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the
ethnic groups should also weigh the danger of a mini-Cold-War type conflict,
which would be hard to get out, once it is started.
At this point in time, the two key words that all
stakeholders, particularly the regime, should have in mind are “military
de-escalation” and “political accommodation”. For only this would bring back a
culture of political negotiation and dialogue in resolving the problems.
Either way, there is not much the stakeholders could
do at this election moment, other than to wait for the in-coming new
government, which will be burdened with the unfinished legacy of Thein Sein's
partial-ceasefire agreement and eventually have to tackle the problem to really
become a nationwide ceasefire treaty, one way or the other.
The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant
Shan Democratic Union (SDU) - Editor
Tags: Opinion
