DICTATOR WATCH
(www.dictatorwatch.org)

Contact: Roland Watson, roland@dictatorwatch.org

THE BURMA NCA - THE TRUE SITUATION: 17 AGAINST,  5 FOR

October 1, 2015

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http://www.dictatorwatch.org/prNCAtruth.html


Agents of Burma’s military dictatorship have published a great amount of
propaganda about the country’s nationwide ceasefire negotiation. Many
incompetent journalists have also repeated the propaganda. Because of
this, there is a pressing need for accurate information, so both the
people of Burma and the International Community can understand what is
really happening.

Following the Ethnic Armed Organization meeting earlier this week, it was
publicized that seven groups will sign the draft agreement, ten groups
will not, and two are as yet undecided. This information, however, is both
incorrect and superficial.

The groups that have said they will sign are the KNU-KNLA PC, DKBA, KNU,
ALP, CNF, PNLO, and ABSDF. Considering these in turn:

The KNU-KNLA PC and the DKBA don’t count. They are long-term allies of the
dictatorship. The NCA is between the resistance organizations and the
regime. Those are the two sides of Burma’s Civil War. The PC and the DKBA
are not resistance organizations. Therefore, they have no place in the
ceasefire. They will do whatever the Burma Army generals tell them to do.
They were only added by the ceasefire promoters, starting with Europe
through Euro-Burma Office and Myanmar Peace Center, to give more
signatures in support of the regime’s position.

The KNU has seven armed brigades. Brigades 2, 3 and 5 do not agree with
Chairman Mutu Say Poe’s decision to sign, nor do many of the rank and file
soldiers of the other brigades. Neither, for that matter, does the allied
Karen civil defense organization, the KNDO. The KNU is split, and it
remains to be seen what will happen with the organization if Mutu does
actually sign.

ALP has 30 soldiers in the KNU’s 7th Brigade area, and 100-200 in Arakan
State. It is signing to maintain the patronage of Mutu.

CNF has 150-200 soldiers in Chin State, but it enjoys little public
support. It is signing because it is under the influence of EBO.

PNLO has approximately 100 soldiers. As with the KNU, its leaders are
signing to get development assistance from Europe and Japan. In effect,
Europe and Japan have bribed the PNLO, and the other groups, to sign.

ABSDF has at most 100 soldiers in KNU areas and 200-300 in the north with
the KIO. The southern faction is signing because it needs Mutu’s
patronage. However, the northern unit will continue to resist.

In summary, the seven groups for the NCA are really five, and of these
only one is large, and it is split, and three of the others are under its
influence and with one of them also split.

The groups that will not sign include the ANC, LDU, SSPP, WNO, MNDAA, AA,
KIO, KNPP, NMSP, PSLF/TNLA, as well as the UWSA and NSCN-K. The NDAA will
also not sign (it is not undecided), and it is believed that due to recent
Burma Army attacks the RCSS will not sign, either. Lastly, you can add to
these dissenters ABSDF-North, the KNLA brigades and soldiers that oppose
Mutu, and KNDO. This totals seventeen different groups. The real position
of the EAOs on the NCA is therefore seventeen against and five for.

This means that any signing by the five in the coming weeks will be
useless. It will be a failure for the regime and a fraud - not a real
nationwide ceasefire at all. Any “political dialogue” in which the five
participate will be pointless as well.

The entire NCA negotiation has been paid for by Europe (mainly through
EBO) and Japan. Their motivation has been clear: to force a peace so that
large-scale development can begin. The regime hasn’t contributed anything.

Europe and Japan, though, have said that they will not keep giving money
unless a deal is reached. This is the only way they will fund the dialogue
phase as well. This is why the regime, EBO and MPC are desperate, and why
they will have a ludicrous signing with only Mutu and a couple of small
groups and then try to call it “nationwide,” to keep the foreign money
flowing. Europe and Japan should note: You wasted your money!!! Stop
funding and therefore supporting the dictatorship. The people, certainly
the ethnic nationality people, won’t forget this. Pull back and like
everyone else wait and see what happens with the election: How the
dictatorship manages to rig the vote in favor of the USDP, or just says to
hell with it and launches a coup.