Hardly has the euphoria of EAOs leaders’ meeting held in Panghsang subsided, the “Peace and National Reconciliation Meeting”, involving a gathering of two major ethnic armed groups, Karen National Union (KNU) and Restoration Council of Shan State/ Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA), with a few more smaller ones, government ministers, registered political parties and some observers took place, at Inya Lake Hotel Yangon, on 9 May, to help push the ratification of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and smoothen the peace and reconciliation process of the country. The tentative NCA draft was signed on 31 March, between the regime’s Union Peace-making Working Committee (UPWC) and Ethnic Armed Organizations’ (EAOs) entrusted Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) that still needs endorsement from the EAOs’ leaders, while the regime has fully accepted the draft as it is formulated and ready to ratify it anytime.

The plot has thickened with the hyping of the 12 February, Union Day, President’s initiated signing of statement dubbed, “Deed of Commitment for Peace and National Reconciliation”. The meeting advocated to form a new coordination team for peace and reconciliation, admittedly to head and draw up a Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD). According to the statement released at the closing of the meeting, the team set up will be made up of various organizations, although it is not clearly defined, which groups would be included.

Speculation from ethnic and oppositions’ camps are that it might probably be made up of regime’s party officials, its henchmen and selected EAOs that were close and see eye-to-eye with the regime’s political positions, whose organizations are keen to sign the NCA from the outset.

The last number of the 6 points statement writes:

“ In order to start implement the pledges of Deed of Commitment swiftly, the formation of a Coordination Team for Peace and Reconciliation, including various organizations, were agreed in principle by the participants of the meeting.”

Similarly, the EAOs Summit Meeting also issued a statement to deal with the ethnic grievances,   rights of self-determination, equality, democracy and most of all, the tackling of the peace process nationwide.

Regarding this, the number 10 from 12 points statement of the meeting mentioned the intended formation of a body, which writes:


“A representative body, including all Ethnic Armed Revolutionary Organizations, that will be established, in order to conduct political discussions with the government, to achieve legal, official rights of the ethnic peoples, were agreed.”

Meanwhile, Thein Sein met United Wa State Party/Army (UWSP/UWSA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) or Mongla and RCSS at Golden Triangle Avenue in Kengtung, on 8 May, reportedly taking the opportunity to sound them out on the ongoing peace process deliberations, while he was around to open the Burma-Laos Friendship Bridge.

The ethnic leaders’ delegations were led by Pao Yu Yi, Deputy Chairman of UWSP/UWSA; Sai Leun, Chairman of the NDAA (Mongla); and Yawd Serk, Chairman of the RCAA/SSA.

They were said to be met separately, where the President discussed about peace-building process and regional development with each of the ethnic leader, according to the Ministry of Information.

Besides, all three leaders supported the peace process peace and pledged to cooperate in the signing of the nationwide ceasefire agreement, according to a report released by the government, the Eleven Media Group reported on 9 May. However, confirmation from the part of the three leaders could still cannot be confirmed.

At the same time, RFA 9 May report said, U Aung Min, the top regime’s top negotiator, reaffirmed that the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDA) known as Kokang, Ta’ang national Liberation Front (TNLF) and Arakan Army (AA) won’t be allowed to participate in the signing of NCA, once the EAOs decided to go ahead with the ratification. His reason was that first the bilateral peace agreement with the three groups must be first in place, before the signing of NCA could be considered. He further said that since the MNDAA and AA have started the fight, they should stop it first, so that proper procedure could be implemented as a follow-up case of peace negotiation.

Such being the case, the “Peace and National Reconciliation Meeting” held on 9 May could be seen as a deliberate attempt to limit the damage done by the Panghsang EAOs’ leadership summit meeting, which has pinpointed the fact of constitutional amendment or rewriting, that will cater to the ethnic aspirations, as a pre-condition to resolve the ethnic conflict. Besides, the EAOs leaders might not be ready to ditch three of their members that the regime has openly rejected and waging an ongoing offensive wars with.

As Thein Sein regime sensed that NCA would be hard to ratify, the fall back plan of disregarding the NCA or putting it on a back-burner might have been devised, by aiming to push ahead with the Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD) and possible convening of Political Dialogue (PD), without first achieving NCA, as prescribed by the 5^th NCA Draft road map of 31 March. It might also want to make use of its “open book signatory” option, where individual organization could sign the NCA according to the time it chooses. Besides, the regime might also have the intention to sideline the importance of political bargaining power of the EAOs, while effectively portraying them as irrelevant in the political arena.

It now looks like, the NCA might be shelved by the government and as well, by the EAOs. For after the Panghsang meeting, most of the ethnic leaders seem to come to the conclusion that their political positions are widening apart, rather than becoming closer to the government. All indications are pointing towards polarization of contending parties and it doesn’t bode well with the much awaited peaceful coexistence and regulated political settlement.

Hopefully, cooler heads from both sides will prevail and compromise to a workable extent, so as to keep the peace process alive, even if it is a distant dream for the moment.


The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor