As the two sides prepare to meet today in Chiangmai, the big, big question is: Is there any possibility of reaching agreement — on a date and place for a new formal meeting if not on the issues?

One thing that is crystal clear is that mistrust, which is mutual, has grown over the past 3 months, following the takeover of the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), made up of both the 12 party alliance, the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), and the non-UNFC ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in early September.

The Army led Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC) responded by going back on some of the important terms of the draft Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) already agreed earlier. Apart from re-asserting that the DDR(Disarmament, Demobilization and Re-integration) should come before political settlement, it also refused to negotiate other critical issues like Military Code of Conduct (COC) and repositioning of troops during the period the two sides will be negotiating.

Then came the 19 November howitzer shell incident which killed 23 resistance cadets. Which was followed by three straight days, 11-13 December, of fighting in northern Shan State’s Kutkhai township.

What seems strange is that each side seems to believe that the other side does not want the NCA to be finalized and signed soon.

“I believe the UNFC doesn’t want peace,” Burmese defense chief was quoted as saying late last month by sources coming from Naypyitaw.  The UNFC appears to believe the same of the Burmese military. “They (the military) are doing all they can to prevent the political dialogue from taking place,” one of the UNFC leaders told SHAN two days ago. His statement was supported by another prominent UNFC member yesterday.

Meanwhile there are no lack of cooler heads on both sides. “Trust is at the lowest level, “Maj Gen Gun Maw of the Kachin Independence Organization/Kachin Independence Army (KIO/KIA), who is also a leading member of the NCCT, was quoted as saying. “And that is why negotiations are most necessary.”

LT-Gen Myint Soe of the Burma Army is also reported as saying on the recent fighting: War is war but peace talks should continue.

SHAN heartily echoes their statements.

Another thing is also clear if the talks are to continue: Both sides, instead of saying No to each other, should be asking “WHY?” instead (such as “Why did you take over the NCCT?” “Why did you decide to go back on what you have already agreed?”)

By the time the answers have been given by each side, SHAN believes the ice will be melting, if not broken, thereby easing the anxiety of the people in the areas repeatedly scarred by war.

But if each side keeps on refusing to ask “Why?,” it’s time the people packed all their life-long belongings and moved to another country where they may face other indignations but not war.

May cooler heads prevail.