Constitutional rewriting a way out of the present political deadlock?
Within a time span of a
little more than a month, quite a lot of things happened that have dashed the
hope of peaceful reconciliation and political settlement. Many are disheartened
and have given up all hope that the peace process and constitutional amendment
would materialize anytime soon.
First, the Nationwide
Ceasefire Coordinating Team/ Union Peacemaking Working Committee (NCCT/UPWC)
meeting in September produced a back-sliding or stalled situation, when the
Burma Army representatives withdrew their agreement of federal union and
federal army proposed discussion, which was previously agreed in August,
coupled with the demand of adherence to the military-drafted 2008 Constitution
and the Commander-in Chief Min Aung Hliang's 6 guiding principles. Lately, he
toned down his demand, when meeting the Karen National Union (KNU) delegates,
that he was not insisting of adherence but only to take it seriously, according
to Padoe Kwe Htoo Win, in the VOA report of 30 November.
Second, the shelling of
Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA) Laiza cadet training school,
where 23 trainees were killed and some 20 or so wounded.
Third, the six-partite
meeting proposed by the Union Solidarity Peace and Development Party (USDP) and
endorsed by the parliament, which includes President
Thein Sein, speakers Shwe Mann and Khin Aung Myint, opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi, Commander-in-Chief Snr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and U Aye Maung an ethnic
representative from within the parliament.
Fourth, the rejection
of the proposed meeting by the President and Commander-in-Chief shortly after
its endorsement by the parliament.
The connectivity of
these episodes create a tremendous impact of the country's political future and
development of the day-to-day politics.
After the September
peace talk leading to the stalled peace process and deteriorating political
atmosphere, due to the Burmese military rejection and withdrawal of the federal
union, federal union army formation proposal that was already agreed in August,
to be discussed at the future political dialogue phase, the USDP rushed in to
to find a way out and limit the damage done, by hastily proposing the six-party
meeting to iron out the constitutional debacle, which is at the heart of the
ethnic and ideological conflicts.
Likewise, Myanmar Peace
Centre (MPC) flew to Chiangmai to talk and secure for another meeting between
the NCCT and UPWC, but was not fruitful.
Mizzima reported that
nine members headed by presidential office minister U Hla Htun also visit Pang
Sang, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) headquarters, on 28 November to talk
about economic and regional development, according to U Aung Myint, the UWSA
spokesman.
DVB report said this
was followed by the General Mutu led KNU visit of Commander-in-Chief Min Aung
Hliang, on 29 November, in Naypyidaw, which was the 7th meeting, a
regular once every two months scheduled meeting, according to Padoe Mann Nyein
Maung, the trusted, inner circle of the KNU chief.
The same report said
that Min Aung Hlaing was said to have told the KNU delegation that he didn't
see eye-to-eye with the parliament endorsed six-members talk but prefer only an
all-inclusive meeting. According to Mann Nyein Maung, the Commander-in Chief
also rejected the formation of federal army, proposed by the NCCT.
Two contending parties
Against this backdrop,
we could see clearly the power struggle between two groups, each with its
political axe to grind. One is the President Thein Sein, Commander-in-Chief Min
Aung Hlaing coalition and the other, House Speaker U Shwe Mann and National
League for Democracy (NLD) Chairperson Aung San Suu Kyi.
The position of the
President and Commander-in-Chief is to stick to the 14-members type of meeting,
held once in October prior to President Obama visit to Burma, to make it more
inclusive, while the House Speaker and NLD stance is to materialize
six-partitie talks to create speedy constitutional amendment within a short
period.
Some accused the
President faction as wanting to drag on the discussion so as to preserve the
status quo situation for as long as possible, leaving the military with veto
power in tact in all constitutional amendment procedure, due to its 25 percent
appointed seats within the parliament.
In the same vein, the
House Speaker and NLD coalition is being doubted for likely, secret agreement
between U Shwe Mann and Aung San Suu Kyi to accommodate the political goal of
each other. Accordingly, Shwe Mann will be endorsed to take the Presidential
slot after the 2015 nationwide election, when NLD would be strongly represented
with likely more seats in the parliament, and Suu Kyi will take the reign after
2020, the following legislature period after Shwe Mann presidency come to an
end.
The speculation based,
according to an opinion piece in The Irrawaddy, on 29 November, said that while
Shwe Mann had previously said that the constitutional amendment would be pulled
through six months prior to the scheduled 2015 election, he now said that it
could only be done after the election, which means the clauses 436 and 59F,
that prevent Suu Kyi from becoming president, could not be amended in time. It
was speculated that Shwe Mann might have promised to amend the clauses during
his presidency to make way for Suu Kyi's take over by 2020. And thus the
endorsement of Suu Kyi for the postponement of the amendment. Apart from that
Shwe Mann has scrapped the Proportional Representative (PR) scheme advocated by
the USDP for First Pass the Post (FPTP) system of winner take all, according to
NLD's liking.
Whether this is true or
not remains to be seen. But one thing is sure that the Nationwide Ceasefire
Agreement (NCA) stalemate will continue and so is the armed conflict, with the
military having a near power monopoly, in the similar form of stratocracy form
of military regime, in which the state
and the military are traditionally or constitutionally the same entity, and
government positions are mostly occupied by retired military officers and
military leaders.
Where do we go from
here?
It is now becoming
clear that the constitutional amendment is not possible within the parliament
for the Commander-in-Chief has time and again rejected to amend it and openly
stated that federal union and federal union army formation are not on his
agenda. And with the military veto votes, there is no way that this could be
pulled through within the parliament. And so we are left with the only other
option of political settlement, outside the parliament, to overcome this
political deadlock.
One suggestion,
comprehensive enough comes from U Ko Nyi, a brilliant orator and sharp thinker,
legal adviser of the NLD. In his interview with DVB, on 27 November, he said
since, the controversial, military-drafted, 2008 Constitution stems from the
national convention, redoing it or amending it should also start there. He said
only in contrast, the convening body should be all-inclusive and has full
uninterrupted, decision-making power and rights to call and manage the convention.
And after the new charter is drawn and later approved by the free and fair
referendum, it would replace the old one without having to think about
time-consuming amendment, which could take 15 to 20 years, loosing valuable
time debating in the parliament. He further explained that instead of amending
the 436 clause, which would open the gate of amendment and later leading to
tackle the unproductive and undemocratic clauses, could take years to finish,
according to U Ko Ni.
Unelected military
representatives currently make up a quarter of Burma's legislature, a hangover
from military rule that ended in 2011 which ensures that the army continues to
hold sway. Under Section 436, any significant changes to the constitution
require a majority vote of more than 75%, thereby giving the last say to
soldiers.
U Ko Ni argued of
rewriting the 2008 Constitution for it is drawn by the committee appointed by
the military, under oppressive atmosphere, where people who criticize the
charter could be jailed form 5 to 20 years, under paragraph 5/96. That is why
this constitution is good only for the military but not for the people.
Current situation
Meanwhile, some one
hundred civilian based organizations wrote an open letter to the President to
order the military to withdraw from the surrounding of KIA Laiza headquarters,
to show good will and also to protect some 17000 IDPs living in the area.
RFA also report
yesterday that KNU, Chin National Front (CNF), New Mon State Party (NMSP) and
Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) have asked Norway foreign minister
Borge Brende, when they met him in Bago or Pegu, on 30 November, to host peace
talk between the government, the military and the ethnic armed organizations to
overcome the differences and rebuilt trust, according to Dr. Sui Khar of CNF.
With the prospect and
likelihood of parliament proposed six-partite talks to take place waning and heightened military confrontation
and political hard stance, the peace process now seems to be completely
stalled, with no tangible outlet to change the situation. Perhaps, it is high
time to think differently and U Ko Ni proposal of starting it anew by going
back to the beginning could be a good try. After all, as he rightly pointed
out, we have written three constitutions within some 60 years and have a lot of
experience. What are we going to lose, if we would produce another new one? It
only need it to be done in a free, fair and all-inclusive manner, unlike the
last one, where it was written to protect the interest and power monopoly of an
institution. Perhaps this would save all of us from muddling through and
beating around the bush and come to the core problem of solving the
“constitutional crisis” head on.
The contributor is
ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor
Tags: Opinion
