UNFC crisis, ethnic-democratic alliance meet and Commander-in-Chief hard-line stance
Ever
since the confidential memo from United Nationalities Federal Council
(UNFC) Foreign Department was distributed, in early August, among the
UNFC circle, and some trusted individuals, disgruntled and critical
remarks were making the rounds, specifically stemming from quarters
like Karen National Union (KNU) and Chin National Front (CNF).
The
memo, which suppose to be a reminder of what issues would be
discussed, points out the need for the UNFC to reform and trim down
the organization to be more effective. It also pinpoints the fact
that Working Group for Ethnic Coordination (WGEC), which was formed
to represent the UNFC and other ethnic groups, has dimmed and weaken
the UNFC political leadership cloud. But somehow, the UNFC has
overcome this obstacle and formed another group named Nationwide
Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), to conduct peace negotiation with
the government. According to the memo, this newly formed team has
been again manipulated by some factions of KNU and CNF, refusing to
toe the line of UNFC political leadership and trying to form a new
team.
KNU
dissatisfaction
The KNU disagreement
with the UNFC is reported by Mizzima, Burmese section, on 30 August
as below:
“
We
haven't reach the stage of resigning from the UNFC yet and have not
decided like that. We see the need to reconsider the current
political situation and formation of the organization; in our
co-operation, it shouldn't be “top-down” but “parallel” form
of doing things”, said Pado Kwe Htoo Win to Mizzima.
Nai
Han Tha, New Mon State Party (NMSP) spokesman also told Mizzima, the
rumours making the rounds at the conference that the KNU would resign
from the UNFC was not true.
A
source, who don't want to be named and close to the ethnic armed
groups told Mizzima that there have been different views among the
groups, in conducting the nationwide ceasefire and political talks
with the government.
“
More or less
there are disagreements. The KNU wants to materialize the ceasefire
and peace process faster, while the UNFC wants to be sure and go
slower”, said the source.
RFA,
DVB and Mizzima reported, on 31 August, that the KNU delegation
walked out from the UNFC meeting, amid rumours that it is resigning
from the umbrella group. However, at this writing, it is not yet
clear if this is really the case.
SSA
and PNLO row
Meanwhile, a row
flared up in Southern Shan State between the RCSS and PNLO over
territorial dispute.
According to RFA
report of 28 August 2014, Hkun Tun Myint said: “We are doing
development with the government agreement, but RCSS is threatening to
attack saying that it is their area. We are also poised to counter
the attack. They have arrested 3 of our soldiers since 21 August.”
When
asked about the conflict, RCSS/SSA official Major Sai Nguen said: „
I don't want to give comment yet. We are still discussing. This has
long been our area and we don't have any idea that the government
have given it to them. We are trying to sort this out.“
UWSP/MNDAA
& Peace Process
The
Irrawaddy 29 August report that United Wa State Party (UWSP) and
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) said to have push
for the amendment of 2008 Constitution, during their meeting with the
President and the Commander-in-Chief.
The
spokesmen of UWSP and MNDAA held a press conference with the media,
on 28 August, where they made their position known.
“ We've
told the President and Commander-in-Chief that 2008 Constitution has
to be amended and that this has to continue at the political dialogue
phase,” said UWSP spokesman, U Aung Myint.
MNDAA
spokesman, U Kham Maung also said that the demand for 2008
Constitutional amendment is due to the desire to establish a self
administrated area for Mong La.
“ What
kind of union we want to establish would be discussed at the phase of
political dialogue. At this moment, we cannot say what should be done
and what facts should be included. If federal, what type of federal
set up. We should adjust the type of federal suitable to our area,”
said U Kham Maung.
UNFC,
UNA and Political Parties
A
two days meeting, 29-30 August, between the UNFC, together with the
United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), 8888 Silver Jubilee Declaration
Implementation Committee, 88 Generation Peace and Open Society, 1990
nationwide election winning representatives, Women's League of Burma
etc., with participation of some 113 persons, was held in Chiangmai,
Thailand.
According
to RFA report, on 31 August, the meeting was able to agree on basic
issues of nationwide ceasefire, 2008 Constitutional amendment, and
all-inclusive political dialogue.
DVB
report of 31 August, according to Ko Myo Win, ABSDF representative,
mentioned the agreed common issues as democracy, rebuilding of future
federal union, 2008 Constitutional amendment, and all-inclusive
political dialogue.
In
the RFA report of 31 August, Nai Han Tha said that although the UNFC
members are bearing arms, they are also politicians like the those
from the political parties inside the country. He further added that
in order to achieve democratic and human rights, peace is needed; and
that this is only possible through understanding between the
government and the ethnic armed groups.
Commander-in-Chief's
political commitment and anti-PR movement
In
Mizzima report of 30 August, Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hliang, in
his speech given at the first ever, women cadet graduation day, held
in Maw-bi, on 28 August, said: “ The constitution drawn and
promulgated according to the people's wish must be respected and
protected”.
He
went on to say that the constitution is drawn, taking a lot of times,
systematically together with the ethnic nationalities, academician,
and experts; it is not copied from foreign democratic countries, but
drawn with reasons stemming from the geographical, cultural tradition
and historical background and promulgated.
In
the meantime, an anti-Proportional-Representative campaign kicked
off, on 28 August 2014, in Okklapa, to halt the Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP) government dominated initiative, which the
public sees as a last resort to cling on to power through the new
electoral system. For the ruling USDP could lose out in the
forth-coming 2015 nationwide election; and only through the PR system
will the party be able to maintain some presence within the
parliament, together with the help of 25 percent non-elected military
seats, allotted by the 2008 Constitution.
Summing
up
Given
such circumstances, it is hard to predict, which way the peace
process is going.
The
UNFC is having an inner crisis, notably on how to bridge the gap of
“go-slow but sure” faction and “do-fast talk politics later”
group, which is tearing the umbrella group apart. This development is
not doing favour either to the government or the ethnic armed
organizations (EAOs). Thein Sein regime would be put into an awkward
position, if it were to go back to its open-book strategy of letting
sign the one that is ready and gradually followed by those, when
their minds are made up. The regime were quite enthusiastic with this
open-book strategy at first, but later gave up, for it could in no
way be a nationwide ceasefire as has been announced and projected,
which would be a lost of face and possibly cost the regime millions
of the promised post-ceasefire international development aids. And as
for the EAOs, the civil war, which is simmering and ongoing could
escalate further, at least in areas who don't sign the Nationwide
Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). And thus, will be back to the square one
again.
The
row between the Shan State Army South (SSA-S) and the Pa-O National
Liberation Organization (PNLO) is also a case in point. The PNLO
insists that it has the government permission to set up shop in Mawk
Mai area, while the SSA-S said that it has its operative area for
years and knew nothing of the government blessing to let the PNLO
take over. This seems like again a “divide-and-rule” tactics of
the government.
And
now, the UWSA and MNDAA are said to be ready to come in from the cold
and attend the future peace talks. It is hard to know, whether this
is a directive from above, or across the border, or their own
initiatives, due to the speculation that the end game scenario is
approaching, rightly or wrongly.
The
UNFC, UNA and political parties' brain-storming have produced a
common goal of achieving peace, democratic rights, establishing a
genuine federalism and the amendment of 2008 Constitution or
rewriting it anew.
The
recently launched anti-Proportional-Representative campaign is also
an indication that the confrontation between the government and the
opposition is taking a new turn and could become hefty, disrupting
the ongoing peace initiative.
Last
but not least, the speech of Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hliang, in
Maw-bi, on 28 August 2014, at the first ever held women cadet
graduation day, that the Burma Army will defend the 2008 Constitution
at all cost, for it is promulgated by the majority of the people, is
a declaration and fortification of the military hard-line position.
The
plot has thicken, or should we say becoming lively, even if it is
hard to guess which way the recent development is leading. While the
ethnic groups and political, opposition parties are driving hard to
change the political system, the Burmese military has not budge from
its position of defending the 2008 Constitution. As the 2015,
nationwide election draws nearer, the power struggle between the
ethnic, USDP-Military clique and political opposition parties is
becoming more intense. For now, the ethnic and political parties
alliance seems to be demanding the change of political system in
unison against the USDP-Military establishment. But how the end game
scenario will play out, in the near future, is anybody's guess.
Tags: Opinion
