If what was published by SHAN on Wednesday, 3 September, voiced a pessimistic view on the 12 armed organizations’ alliance, the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) and the article which followed on the next an optimistic one on it, what I’m going to write here offers a realistic once-over, according to a UNFC member who considers himself a non-partisan in the controversy that arose between the UNFC and the Karen National Union (KNU) that has suspended its membership in the 3 year old pact.

The positive sides of the UNFC, he says, include:

·      The 11 parties remain at least arguably united despite the KNU’s hopefully temporary parting (“Unity especially at this juncture is the key,” he says)

·      

The KNU still agrees to work in the 16 member Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) where UNFC members form the majority. Padoh Kwe Htoo Win, General Secretary of the KNU, is one of the two deputy leaders of the NCCT that is negotiating with the government’s Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC)

·      Khu Oo Reh, the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP)’s Vice President, who has been elected as the alliance’s General Secretary, is seen as a leader acceptable to both UNFC and non-UNFC armed organizations

·      The alliance continues to enjoy moral and material support from the Nippon Foundation, whose head Yohei Sasakawa was appointed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as special representative to help achieve national reconciliation in Burma in February 2013.

 “Nevertheless,” the “non-partisan” argues, “the KNU, I believe, had not overreacted as some people believe.”

His arguments are:

·      The alliance operates not on consensus as desired by the KNU and others who collectively are in the minority but on majority decision (“The arrangement may be okay for small groups but not always for bigger organizations,” he claims)

·      The KNU had proposed that a supervisory committee, made up UNFC and non- UNFC armed organizations, to give guidance to the NCCT’s negotiations with the UPWC (The UPWC has the Union Peacemaking Central Committee, made up of cabinet, military and legislative members. “The UNFC, however, has ‘hijacked’ the NCCT,” he charges)

Note:

Please see Statement of First United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) Congress (3 September 2014):

#5. The Congress resolved that with respect to ceasefire, the NCCT is a working group formed of representatives of the UNFC member and associate organizations, and that working group is performing for achieving a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, in accordance with the principles and political laid down by the UNFC.     

·      At least two of the UNFC Executive Committee of the UNFC do not appear to meet the requirement of the UNFC Constitution that they must be on the central committee of their respective movements (“That is not quite an encouraging  precedent, “ he says)

The “non-partisan” is also concerned about the old way of thinking,that old solutions still apply to the new circumstances.

“Forming an alliance to fight and forming one to make peace while preparing for the worst,“ he says “are quite different. For instance, the UNFC wants to represent the ethnic nationalities in the proposed Tripartite Dialogue (between the Government, Democratic Forces and Ethnic Nationalities as recommended by the UN in 1994). But the democratic forces as once represented by Aung San Suu Kyi is no more. And ethnic parties that were almost strangled to death under the military regime are now alive and kicking. But the UNFC had invited only chosen CSOs and parties to the Congress.”

Another concern of his is that there are elements both within and without the UNFC who are pushing for political dialogue instead of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) that the NCCT and UPWC are negotiating.

“They are suggesting that the NCA be delayed until the post-2015 elections government is in place,” he says. “If it is signed now, the West may lift all its sanctions and the USDP, riding the crest of its success, may be re-elected.They think the ethnic nationalities are going to get a better deal with a non-military affiliated party government.”

He is likewise troubled about the leadership. “There has been a lot of reports that in the UNFC nothing is agreed until the chairman agrees,” he says. “I hope we will not witness any repetitions in his second term.”

The “non-partisan”, meanwhile, is not without concern about the KNU. “I hope both factions are able to come to terms with each other,” he hopes. “I also hope we don’t see emergence of new DKBAs and new KPCs (groups that split away from the KNU).”

The KNU has called a CEC meeting for the next month.

So now that you’ve heard “your side”, “my side” and even “neither side” of the story,, what do you think is the truth?