BURMA PEACE PROCESS: Rejoicing prematurely or back to the square one?
Now that the Thein Sein
regime has accepted the use of the word “Federal” in the Nationwide
Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and even vowed to implement it to transform the
country into a federal union, it seems the main stumbling block has been
removed in its negotiation for a peaceful, political settlement with the
Nationwide Ceasefire Coordinating Team (NCCT), an umbrella organization of the
some 16 ethnic armed groups.
According to RFA report,
on 15 August 2014, “The government has accepted the demand to establish a
Federal Union, which ethnic armed groups have been asking after for a long
time,” said Naing Han Tha, leader of the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team
[NCCT] set up by 16 armed ethnic groups to negotiate a ceasefire deal with the
government.
Naing Han Tha said
federalism was the biggest obstacle in efforts to frame a ceasefire agreement,
but now that the government has agreed to it, the remaining talks should go
smoothly.
“After the government agrees with that part, the rest
is not difficult to discuss, I guess,” he said.
Meanwhile, RFA reported,
on 16 August 2014, one Myanmar Peace Center (MPC), government affiliated set
up, staff said that the NCCT's demand of federalism based on democracy,
equality and rights of self-determination, was accepted only as a discussion
topic, which would be further discussed at the stage of political dailogue
phase.
Min Zaw Oo, one of the MPC
staff, said that the government alone cannot decide the issue of political
system change and that the altering of system would be made according to the
result or outcome of the forthcoming, political discussion.
According to Myitmakha
Media Group report, on 12 November 2013: The government has not placed many
restrictions on holding political discussion apart from prohibiting any sign of
secession from the union and violation the sovereignty of the state, Union
Minister U Aung Min of the President Office said at the meeting between Union
Ministers and political parties held on 11 November 2013.
“There are not so much restrictions in political
discussion. The first point is to stop saying secession from the union and the
second is to forbid political parties from showing any sign of violation the
state’s sovereignty. All parties have already been informed that they can
discuss all matters except these two points,” he said.
As the proposals for
establishing the federal union are under consideration, the Constitution and
the armed force that guarantee federalism will appear, he added.
“It’s right to discuss ceasefire, but I think issues
that have to be politically resolved are to be discussed in political
dialogue,” said U Hla Maung Shwe of leader of Technical Team of Union Peace
Making Work Committee.
In short, it could be
taken as we are all back to the square one. This rhetoric, which suppose to be
the ground-breaking news in accommodating the non-Burman ethnic armed groups'
demand for the acceptance of a federal set up first, so that nationwide
ceasefire agreement (NCA) could be signed, has not materialized, as expected by
the NCCT. To put it differently, the government has fallen back on its old
position, delaying tactics of "open for discussion at a later date "
after the signing of NCA.
Meanwhile, The Irrawaddy
reported, on 15 August 2014: Burma’s President Thein Sein is “failing” in
the eyes of the public, according to a poll of more than 6,500 people conducted
by a local environmental and social advocacy group.
Though receiving higher
marks than in late 2012, the three-stage survey found that the president scored
27 out of a maximum score of 100 at the end of last year, down from the 32 that
he scored when respondents were polled in mid-2013. Thein Sein scored 21 when
the preliminary poll was conducted in late 2012.
The group Advancing
Life and Regenerating Motherland (Alarm), which works on environmental
conservation and social affairs research in Burma, on Thursday released the
survey, which also gauged public opinion on the performance of government
generally and members of Parliament.
Protests against an
electricity rate increase, land disputes and Burma’s ongoing civil war with
ethnic minority groups were all deemed liabilities for Thein Sein by respondents.
The arrest of activists protesting the controversial Letpadaung copper mine,
the country’s still unreformed Constitution and a visit by the Organization of
Islamic Cooperation to Burma in late 2013 were also cited as unfavourable
developments.
In a video interview,
following the survey publicizing, Win Myo Thu President of ALARM said that in
order to get a better scoring Thein Sein regime could do two things. One is to
uplift the economy so that it benefits the people; and the other, to implement
policy that could score political marks for the regime. While working for the
betterment of the economy is time consuming and would take times to see result,
creating a favourable political climate could be implemented in a matter of
short term undertakings. He stressed that for example, arranging a four parties
meeting, as called for by various pressure groups, between President Thein
Sein, House Speaker Thura Shwe Mann, Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing and NLD
leader Aung San Suu Kyi; and allowing a favourable political give-and-take to
achieve peace and reconciliation with the ethnic groups; would go a long way in
scoring a better poll result, in a short run. And these gains could put him in
a good stead, when nationwide general election take place in 2015.
Such being the case, the
government should seriously think and spell out its clear position on the
acceptance of federalism as a governing system, rather than placing the issue
as just an ordinary one to be discussed at the political dialogue phase,
without certainty or really committing to it.
Tags: Opinion
