Crisis in Thailand, particularly the problematic rice pledging scheme, dubbed “a perfect storm”, means “less durability” in overall Thai-Burmese relations, according to Dr Paul Chambers of the Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiangmai University.

Smugglers took advantage of the substantially higher grain prices in Thailand.

An estimated 750,000 tons of rice from Burma were said to have been smuggled into the kingdom last year.

“Moreover, since 9 December, the Thai army has been effectively in control of the border policy,” he said. “Normally, the Ministry of Interior (MOI) has a say in the matter. It no longer does.”

Thailand since the dissolution of the parliament and the controversial elections held on 2 February is under a caretaker government led by Ms Yingluck Shinawatra, who is still unable to form a new government, despite being the winning party.

Thailand’s investment in Burma is $ 9.5 billion, while the bilateral trade is $ 6.1 billion.
The uncertainties in Thailand have moved foreign investors away. To them, Burma has become a more attractive country for investment, following unprecedented open door policy adopted by the nominally-elected government of Gen Thein Sein since 2011.

Chambers nevertheless does not see the risk of partition and a long drawn-out civil war as in the 19th century United States during Abraham Lincoln’s tenure. “If there is war, it will be a low intensity one,” he said in response to a participant’s question.” But I don’t think anyone really wants it. (Talks of partition) are more rhetoric than reality.”

One thing that is common between the pro-Yingluck Red Shirts and the anti-Yingluck People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), he pointed out, is that both support a decentralized structure.

The presentation was organized by the Chiangmai-based Burma Study Center.

The next presentation will be by well known Burmese journalist Aung Zaw of The Irrawaddy, who is launching his newly published book “Aung San Suu Kyi: The Face of Burma's Resistance” next Thursday, 20 March, at the same lecture room # 4107.