Well placed insiders have recently warned ethnic leaders, both armed and unarmed, not to put all their eggs in the peace talks basket, according to a report received by SHAN yesterday.

“This is only part of the old regime’s strategy to destroy the non-Burman movements once and for all,” the report, which declines to name the sources, reads. “It is also meant to be a showpiece for the West to rush in and prop up the regime.”

President Thein Sein may mean well but he is in the minority, according to the report. “All key issues are decided by Karlong (National Defense and Security Council) and the Senior General Than Shwe, who is supposed to have retired, is still pulling its strings, no matter what the present leaders are saying.”
 
BURMA'S MOST TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION, Tuesday, April 19, 2011 (Cartoon: Irrawaddy/Harnlay)
 
The Karlong, according to the 2008 constitution’s Article 201, is made up of 11 persons: President, 2 Vice Presidents, Lower House Speaker, Upper House Speaker, Commander-in-Chief, Deputy Commander-in-Chief, Defense Minister, Foreign Minister, Home Minister and Border Affairs Minister. At least 6 of them are from the military.

“We should not forget that the President cannot do anything outside the constitution,” one of the sources was quoted as saying. “So take everything into account and never give up your arms until a political settlement is reached.”

A Shan State Army (SSA) commander commented on the report that there was nothing new in it. “But it does remind us once again that we cannot afford to be carried away by the peace process, that there must always a Plan B.”

Warrior philosopher Sun Tzu (BC.551-469) who authored The Art of War says: Face your opposite number directly but conquer him by indirect methods.

Since 2011 when President Thein Sein called for peace talks, 14 armed groups have signed ceasefire with Naypyitaw. A nationwide ceasefire agreement signing is being planned, to be followed by negotiations on the framework for political dialogue and later by political dialogue.

Meanwhile defense analyst Aung Kyaw Zaw claims to have obtained leaked military document that outlines the military’s top priority as the elimination of the ethnic armed forces, according to The Irrawaddy, 2 May 2013. He confirmed it to SHAN when they met in Laiza in October.