A briefing paper that came out late October has recommended that political guarantees are necessary "before permanent ceasefire and a nationwide peace can truly be declared."

The 20 page paper, jointly published by Transnational Institute (TNI) and Burma Centrum Nederland (BCN), was distributed at a quiet seminar in Bangkok held last month.

"There have been too many disappointments and injustices in Burma's past for simple optimism now," reads its page-2.

The suggestion coincided with the 11 point common position by the ethnic armed organizations at the 30 October-2 November Laiza conference, that had called for, among others:

• Adherence to the Panglong Agreement signed in 1947 that had united the then lowland Burma with the then Frontier Areas
• Convening a national conference based on the spirit and principles of Panglong
• Ratification and implementation of the accord reached (at the national conference)

Naypyitaw meanwhile had come up with a draft ceasefire agreement that required, among others, the non-Burman armed opposition to uphold its "3 national causes": Non-disintegration of the Union, Non-disintegration of national Solidarity and Perpetuation of the national sovereignty.
The two sides are due to meet in Karen State's Pa-an this month.
Five key elements outlined by the paper are:

• Nationwide peace and an end to the practice of Separate arrangements
• Extra parliamentary as well as parliamentary processes to ensure national inclusion
• A political agreement — or, at the very least, political guarantees — before permanent ceasefires and nationwide peace can truly be declared
• Transparent and inclusive political talks to make the agreements binding
• International observation at key stages to ensure that agreements are adhered to by different sides

Burma's Ethnic Challenge: From Aspirations to Solutions can be read in www.tni.org/work-area/burma-project.