Over the last year and a half, this has been the uppermost question in everybody’s mind regarding the Government of Myanmar’s ceasefire negotiations with the ethnic armed groups. This question became especially acute at the beginning of the year when President Thein Sein ordered a ceasefire but the Tatmadaw seemingly ignored the order and continued to press forward using heavy artillery to seize key Kachin Independence Army positions.

Many came to the conclusion that the President cannot control the Tatmadaw; it is its own master. Others concluded that the President and the Tatmadaw are playing ‘good cop’ and ‘bad cop’ roles in the negotiations with the various ethnic armed groups in order to draw them out and trap them in untenable positions. The suspicions have increased as fighting with the Kachins has not stopped, despite two meeting in Ruili with the Chinese present, and fighting in the Shan State has escalated in the last month. The recent anti-Muslim riots in Meiktila and Mandalay led by ‘monks’ have also fueled suspicions.

Read more: EBO Brief No.3.2013 Tatmadaw.pdf