Burma/Myanmar, according to 1990 elected Shan leader Hkun Htun Oo, is both de jure and de facto made up of two countries:

• Big towns and cities which are under the direct control of the government
• Small towns and the countryside, where the military remains the undisputed ruler 

As it is, the military is not just a state within a state but a parallel state. Some even go on to say it is a state outside a state. Because, unlike the United States and other countries adopting the presidential system of government, nowhere in the current constitution is it stated that the President is the Commander in Chief of the nation’s armed forces.

It means the military will obey his/her orders only when they fit in with its plans, and dismiss them when they do not.

The National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), better known by its Burmese acronym “Kar Long”, the nation’s highest and most powerful organ and made up 11 members (with at least 6 of whom coming from the military), is the only place where the President must summon all of his powers of persuasion to get the military to support his programs.

While this means he cannot stop the generals from doing what they want, it also means they may not be able to stop him from doing what he wants either, short of taking over the reins of the country in the name of Kar Long.

(Accordingly, it would be a mistake to blame President Thein Sein for military fiascos in Kachin and Shan states. The criticisms should be directed instead to the new Vice Senior General or, more appropriately, his boss. The only fault I can find with the President and his chief negotiator Aung Min is that they are still insisting “the Emperor is indeed wearing his new clothes” when everyone else sees he has nothing on him.)

Which explains what is happening in the country today:

• On the one hand, there is fighting in the countryside, not only against groups that have yet to conclude ceasefire agreements but also against those that have already signed them. The populace who thought the war was over now live under a reign of terror by the Burma Army
• On the other hand, these movements have been allowed to meet and talk to the public, political parties and other armed movements in preparation for a nationwide political dialogue with the government.

Clearly, this is not an ideal situation, but just as clearly, it seems to be the best one can get under existing circumstances.

All resistance movements, as well as the people, therefore should be resigned to the fact that war may still be going on, but at least, unlike in the past 50 years, they have been given a chance to have their say.

The Ethnic Nationalities Conference, held in Chiangmai, 14-16 September, was one such example. Out of which has emerged an alternative 3 phase peace plan (ceasefire, implementation, and political dialogue) and the alternative 6 point roadmap:

• A forum to develop a framework for political dialogue
• A meeting with the government to agree upon the framework of political dialogue
• Ethnic consultations throughout the country
• Ethnic conference to agree upon the talking points
• Union convention to discuss and sign the Union Accord
• To agree upon a time frame for the peace process

According to international experts who have worked in peace processes around the world, getting a Union Accord signed in 2015 may be a pipe dream. But if they could work to prevent conflicts within the next 3 years, it’ll be a significant first step in the journey of the thousand li to unify the two sovereigns.