EBO Analysis Paper No.1/2012

Many in the international community believe that if the by-elections on 1 April in Burma are ‘free and fair’, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi (DASSK) and her National League for Democracy (NLD) will win all 48 seats1. Is this true? Can the NLD sweep the board?

First, while anything is possible, it is not probable. Why? The perception of a landslide is based on the 1990 general elections when the NLD won over 80% of the seats. This time with DASSK herself running, it is assumed that the results will be better. But the situation in Burma today is not what it was in 1990. Then, people were fed up with General Ne Win’s regime and euphoric about the possibility of a popular democratic transition. Today, people are hopeful that the reforms introduced by President Thein Sein in 2011 will usher in a new period of democracy and prosperity and fearful that any instability will set the reforms back.

Second, half the voting population today did not have the vote in 1990. Most were not yet born or were too young. Other than DASSK, the electorate does not know the other candidates. The NLD does not have a track record, whereas, the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has delivered tangible benefits since the new government took office in April 2011.

Third, the 48 seats being contested are ‘safe’ seats of the USDP. The seats were by and large vacated by the President and his cabinet, as stipulated in the 2008 Constitution.

Fourth, the NLD took a very uncompromising stand during the 2010 general elections. Not only did it boycott the elections but it branded the other democratic parties that took part in the elections as ‘opportunists’ and ‘traitors’. The wounds have not healed. Moreover, instead of trying to build an alliance with the existing opposition parties, the NLD decided to go it alone, fielding 48 candidates2. This could split the democratic vote giving seats to the USDP.

Fifth, the NLD executive decided to parachute in key candidates into constituencies where it believes it has strong local support. This move has upset some in the party and candidates favoured by the rank and file, are running against the NLD’s candidates as independents.

Given these dynamics, it is not at all certain how many seats the NLD will win. DASSK herself will definitely win. She is very popular and a celebrity but whether that will transform into votes for her party is an open question. The party could maybe win 60% of the seats.

Therefore, it would be prudent for the international community not to jump to a conclusion that the vote was not ‘free and fair’ if the NLD does not win all the 47 seats it is contesting. This is important because the international community has set the conducting of free and fair elections for the 48 seats country-wide as a benchmark for the removal of sanctions, and allowing increased involvement from International Financial Institutions (IFIs).

Elections irregularities have been reported by the exile media, especially the Alternate ASEAN Network and Burma News International. On 21 March 2012, DASSK was also quoted as saying "Fraud and rule violations are continuing and we can even say they are increasing."3 In the past, as a national leader, her word could be taken at face value. However, today, her words need to be seen

Read more: ebo-analysis-paper-no-1-2012-the-2012-elections.pdf